The 2025 NCAA Tournament is set to tip-off, and all eyes are on the match-up between Alabama State and St. Francis (PA) as they compete for the 16-seed spot to face off against the top-ranked Auburn Tigers. March Madness is known for its unpredictability, and this game is expected to deliver excitement as two mid-major teams bring their unique strengths to the floor.
Alabama State enters the tournament after clinching the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) championship by defeating Jackson State 60-56. This victory marked their return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011, when they faced UT-San Antonio and lost 70-61. The Hornets boast standout senior guard CJ Hines, who averaged 14.4 points per game this season and played a pivotal role during the SWAC championship, scoring 20 points and going four for six from beyond the arc.
Despite their triumph, Alabama State has faced challenges throughout the season, finishing fourth in the SWAC with a 12-6 conference record and entering the tournament with an overall record of 19-15. They thrive on defense, holding opponents to just 60.9 points per game over their last ten outings, ranking 25th nationally. Their defensive prowess is paired with a +2.9 rebound margin, thanks to contributions from players like TJ Madlock, who averages 12.6 points per game and is notable for his rebounding ability.
Meanwhile, St. Francis (PA), hailing from the Northeast Conference, looks to make their mark after clinching their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991 by winning the Northeast Conference Championship against Central Connecticut, albeit narrowly, with a score of 46-43. The Red Flash finished the regular season with a 16-17 overall record and 8-8 conference play. Guard Riley Parker leads St. Francis with 15 points per game and provides much of their offensive spark, alongside Jeremy Clayville, who is known for his shooting efficiency from three-point range at 39%.
The upcoming First Four game is expected to feature contrasting styles: Alabama State's grit and defensive chaos against St. Francis's high-variance shooting. This unpredictability makes for thrilling tournament matchups where both teams know the stakes are high. Alabama State is currently favored by 4.5 points, but the matchup is far from set; the Hornets' ability to stymie the Red Flash's offense will be key to their success.
Alabama State thrives on enabling chaos for their opponents and will look to force turnovers. They average 12.4 turnovers per game, which will need to improve against St. Francis if they are to capitalize on second-chance points, where they have excelled. Conversely, the Red Flash must maintain composure and limit mishaps to put together effective scoring runs, especially against Alabama State's formidable defense.
Given these factors, predictions are leaning toward Alabama State edging out St. Francis, with some estimates landing on Alabama State winning 72-70. The game's tight margin is indicative of how closely matched both teams are and the unpredictable nature of this phase of the tournament. This matchup will certainly be one to watch, showcasing not only talent but also resilience and strategy.
Regardless of the outcome, the initial game between these two schools places them at the crossroads of their basketball odysseys. Both teams face the monumental task of taking on the Alabama State Hornets and will have to bring their A-game to avoid being steamrolled by the powerhouse Auburn Tigers, should they advance.
With everything on the line, every possession carries more weight than usual as they hope to continue their March Madness dreams. Who will rise to the occasion? Only time will tell, but fans of both teams will be eagerly watching as the opening round of the NCAA Tournament commences.
