The NCAA Tournament is heating up as the No. 7 seed Alabama Crimson Tide prepares to battle the No. 20 seed Saint Mary's Gaels in the second round on Sunday, March 23, 2025. The game is set to tip-off at 6:10 p.m. EDT at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio, offering both teams a chance to secure a coveted spot in the Sweet 16.
Alabama enters this matchup with an impressive 26-8 overall record and a 14-6 mark against Southeastern Conference (SEC) foes. They have a solid reputation for offensive prowess, averaging 91.1 points per game, which is a staggering 30.6 points more than the 60.5 points per game that Saint Mary's allows. The Crimson Tide are also known for their aggressive rebounding, ranking fourth in the SEC with 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, spearheaded by Mouhamed Dioubate, who contributes an average of 2.0 offensive boards.
In their most recent outing, Alabama faced Robert Morris and secured a win. However, the performance left some fans questioning whether the team can maintain its status as a legitimate contender for the National Championship. Coach Nate Oats had set high expectations for the Tide, emphasizing a minimum goal of returning to the Final Four. "You've got to give them a lot of credit. We knew they'd play tough... we didn't do a good enough job keeping them off the glass," Oats stated after the game, expressing concerns about rebounding effectiveness.
For Saint Mary's, the Gaels have made their mark with an overall record of 29-5 and an 18-2 record in West Coast Conference (WCC) play. Averaging 73.1 points per game while outscoring their opponents by 12.6 points, Saint Mary's presents a resilient challenge. Their key players include Augustas Marciulionis, who has shined by scoring 14.2 points and dishing out six assists per game.
Both teams face an uphill battle as they navigate the nuances of their performance styles. The Gaels have demonstrated solidity with their rebounding capabilities, ranking second in Division I for offensive rebounds, and they will look to capitalize on any opportunities on the boards against Alabama. A crucial statistic in this game will be the rebounding battle, with Alabama needing to address their weaknesses from the previous game.
Throughout the last ten games, Alabama has registered mixed performances, going 5-5 despite a scoring average of 92.4 points. Opponents have managed to score an average of 88.4 points against them, indicating potential vulnerabilities in Alabama's defense. This presents an area for Saint Mary's to exploit if they can maintain a controlled pace and dominate the glass.
ESPN Analytics gives Alabama a 65.9% chance of winning the matchup, while models from Warren Nolan and Ken Pomeroy predict a narrow victory for the Tide, with projected scores around 75-71. However, despite these favorable odds, ESPN's projections outline that Alabama only holds a 43.8% probability of advancing to the Elite Eight. The stakes are undeniably high as both teams strive for success.
The role of key players will be paramount in determining the outcome of this game. Mark Sears, averaging 18.8 points and five assists per game, will be essential for Alabama, as will contributions from Dioubate and standout forward Cliff Omoruyi, who registered 17 points in the last outing. On the other side, Saint Mary's needs their top performers, including Mikey Lewis, who has averaged 8.2 points and 1.7 made three-pointers per game, to deliver in critical moments.
As game day looms closer, Alabama's coaching staff emphasizes the need to play a cohesive game to counteract Saint Mary's slow and methodical style. Nate Oats pointed out that St. Mary's is "huge on the interior," calling into question how well Alabama can compete on the boards in this next matchup.
The unique styles of these teams will underpin the excitement of this second-round NCAA Tournament contest. The Crimson Tide's fast-paced offensive strategy must outperform Saint Mary's ability to control the pace, alongside a crucial rebounding battle that could dictate the flow and score of the game.
As alums and fans anticipate this thrilling match-up, it's fair to say that the journey for both teams will reveal much about their readiness to triumph in the Big Dance. The time is right to see if the Crimson Tide can shake off their inconsistencies and solidify their place among the elite!
