The threat against the Netherlands remains undiminished, according to the AIVD's 2024 annual report. The world is increasingly embroiled in open conflict, with espionage, cyberattacks, and disinformation being wielded as weapons by nations eager to assert their influence and safeguard their interests, often at the expense of others. This shifting balance of power raises significant risks for the Netherlands, a nation that relies heavily on international trade and a rules-based world order for its peace and prosperity.
Erik Akerboom, the Director-General of the AIVD, emphasized this change during the report's presentation. "We are witnessing a shift from a situation where our safety seemed self-evident to one where it has become the primary concern for many Western countries. Uncertainty has become the norm rather than the exception," he stated. The AIVD is working tirelessly to address current challenges and prepare for various scenarios regarding geopolitical developments.
The most significant shift in security thinking in Europe is attributed to the threat posed by the Russian regime. The Kremlin and its associated networks adopted a more aggressive, brazen, and provocative stance against European nations in 2024. They engaged in espionage, conducted covert disinformation campaigns to influence public opinion, and executed cyberattacks. The AIVD asserts that the actions of Russian intelligence and security services, such as the GRU and FSB, border on state terrorism, aimed at instilling fear across Europe.
Examples of this aggressive behavior include the sabotage of undersea internet and electricity cables, a fire in a shopping center in Warsaw, arson at a steel factory in Germany, and plans for an assassination attempt on the director of a German arms factory. While the Netherlands has not experienced such incidents directly, it is considered a potential target due to its support for Ukraine and its role as a data and transport hub.
In addition to the Russian threat, the AIVD identified China as a growing concern. For the first time, the AIVD and the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) publicly attributed a cyberattack on a Dutch defense network to the Chinese state, highlighting intentions to spy on the Dutch government and political targets. Furthermore, Chinese companies have supplied dual-use goods, including attack drones, to the Russian war industry, illustrating a collaborative effort between China and Russia to diminish Western influence.
China's extensive espionage programs aim to acquire high-quality technology and knowledge from Western countries, particularly in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, agriculture, and medicine development. This theft of information is also used to modernize the Chinese military, which poses a significant threat to the economic and knowledge security of the Netherlands.
The AIVD's report also highlights the rising threat of jihadist attacks, which increased in 2024. Eleven attacks were recorded in Europe, with several plots disrupted by intelligence and security services, particularly around significant events like the European Championship in Germany and the Olympic Games in France. The AIVD has played a role in preventing various such attacks.
The internal security landscape in the Netherlands is influenced by international political developments. The AIVD observed the emergence of a new generation of young jihadists, particularly active online. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has become a focal point for these individuals, with incidents such as the stabbing attack in Rotterdam in September 2024, which left one dead, potentially linked to jihadist motives.
Additionally, the AIVD expressed concern over anti-institutional extremism, with ten individuals being prosecuted for terrorism-related charges. Right-wing extremist conspiracy theories also pose a growing threat, with one in six Dutch citizens believing that a segment of the political elite is attempting to replace the native Dutch population with non-Western immigrants.
Criminal networks are becoming increasingly sophisticated, using specialized intelligence teams to monitor perceived threats, including officials, politicians, journalists, and lawyers. The AIVD reported that these criminal groups are now employing tactics similar to those of investigative and security services, which has raised alarms about their capability to execute attacks.
In response to these escalating threats, the AIVD issued 73 official reports to warn other agencies in 2024, a significant increase from 56 the previous year. To bolster its efforts, the AIVD plans to hire 300 additional employees in the coming year, aiming to help companies protect their innovations and sensitive information.
Akerboom noted that the increased safety awareness among Dutch government institutions has led to more frequent requests for the AIVD to investigate offices for hidden cameras and microphones. While no such devices have been found, the rising number of inquiries underscores a growing consciousness regarding security vulnerabilities within the government, which is a prime target for espionage.
In a world marked by geopolitical unrest, the AIVD's role in providing the government with independent intelligence on global security conditions is more critical than ever. The agency's research and vigilance are essential in helping to safeguard the Netherlands against a multitude of threats, both foreign and domestic.
