On Tuesday, October 1, 2025, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—a 25-year-old trade pact that once stood as a cornerstone of US-Africa economic relations—officially expired, sending shockwaves through African economies and leaving tens of thousands of jobs hanging by a thread. The expiration, which comes amid a swirl of global economic uncertainty and new US tariffs, has left exporters, workers, and policymakers scrambling to understand what comes next.
AGOA, first introduced in 2000, was designed to foster economic growth and democratic development in sub-Saharan Africa by granting duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products. Over the years, the pact grew to encompass more than 1,800 products from 32 African nations, including key exports such as textiles, apparel, agricultural goods, and fuel. According to AP and Semafor, US imports under AGOA totaled nearly $10 billion in 2023, demonstrating the agreement’s economic heft.
For many countries, AGOA was more than just a trade deal—it was a lifeline. In Kenya, for example, the textile and apparel sector flourished under AGOA, with exports to the United States jumping from about $50 million at the start of the pact to around $500 million today. The industry employs more than 66,000 workers, the majority of them women, whose livelihoods now face an existential threat.
"Clearly, if AGOA goes away, we have zero chance to compete with the Asian countries. There is no way we can survive. As a businessman, it is not going to be a survival for us. The whole house of cards will collapse very quickly," said Pankaj Bedi, CEO of United Aryan clothing factory in Kenya, as quoted by BBC. The sentiment is echoed across Nairobi’s garment districts, where workers like machinist Julia Shigadi are bracing for the worst. "For all those years, this has been my bread and butter. I only depend on this job. So if it is gone, it means my life is gone too," Shigadi lamented.
The timing of AGOA’s expiry couldn’t be worse. Earlier this year, the White House imposed new tariffs—some as high as 10% or more—on a range of African exports that had previously entered the US duty-free under AGOA. The impact of these tariffs is already being felt, with thousands of factory workers facing uncertainty and businesses warning of imminent shutdowns. According to Reuters, the September manufacturing data from Asia—another major global exporter—showed a stark split, with some countries weathering the tariffs better than others. Yet for African exporters, the loss of AGOA’s protections is a body blow.
The uncertainty has sent African leaders and diplomats into overdrive. In the weeks leading up to the deadline, envoys from across the continent traveled to Washington to lobby for an extension. At the United Nations General Assembly last week, Kenyan President William Ruto made a direct appeal to the White House, urging an extension of at least five years. Yet, as reported by AP and Semafor, the Trump administration signaled its willingness to support only a short-term, one-year renewal. The process and timeline for such a renewal remain murky, especially after an earlier attempt to attach an extension to a US government funding bill failed when the bill did not pass on October 1.
Raphael Obonyo, a public policy expert at UN-Habitat, warned that the fallout from AGOA’s expiry could ripple far beyond the textile sector. "In the short run, it looks manageable, but in the long run, the challenges are going to be devastating and they are going to spill over," Obonyo told BBC. The loss of duty-free status threatens not only export revenues but also the broader economic stability of several African economies, many of which are already grappling with inflation, currency fluctuations, and a volatile global trading environment.
For countries like Lesotho and Kenya, AGOA has been a pillar of their trade with the US. The pact’s expiration now leaves their industries exposed to global competition, particularly from Asian manufacturing giants who can often produce goods at lower costs. Without the preferential access that AGOA provided, African exports face an uphill battle to maintain their foothold in the lucrative US market.
According to Invezz, the expiration of AGOA is part of a broader pattern of shifting global trade dynamics. As US lawmakers remain embroiled in a government funding standoff, the fate of the trade pact has become entangled in domestic political wrangling. No clear timeline has emerged for when, or if, Congress will act to renew the agreement. Meanwhile, exporters and workers are left in limbo, unsure whether to scale back operations or hold out hope for a last-minute reprieve.
The consequences of AGOA’s expiry are not confined to Africa. US importers who have relied on African goods for their supply chains now face higher costs and potential disruptions. The ripple effects could extend to American consumers, who may see prices rise on everything from clothing to specialty agricultural products.
Some analysts see a glimmer of hope in the White House’s stated support for a one-year extension. However, as Semafor notes, the lack of clarity around the process and the failure of the government funding bill to pass have left many skeptical. For now, the future of US-Africa trade relations hangs in the balance, with thousands of jobs and millions in export revenues at stake.
As African governments and businesses grapple with this new reality, many are calling for a more permanent solution. They argue that a short-term fix will do little to restore confidence or encourage investment. What’s needed, they say, is a renewed commitment to long-term partnership and economic cooperation—one that recognizes the mutual benefits of open markets and shared prosperity.
For now, though, the mood on the ground is one of anxiety and uncertainty. As workers in Kenya’s garment factories clock in for what could be their final shifts, and as policymakers in Washington debate the next move, the stakes could hardly be higher. The expiration of AGOA marks the end of an era—and the beginning of a new, uncertain chapter in US-Africa economic relations.
