The German political scene is undergoing dramatic changes, following recent elections which saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party capturing second place, echoing growing concerns about nationalist rhetoric and its impact on societal cohesion.
Preliminary data from the Thünen research institute, part of Germany's Ministry of Agriculture, indicates the AfD garnered 19.7% of votes from rural areas, significantly up from 7.8% during the last elections held in 2021. This surge particularly occurred in traditional strongholds for centrist parties, such as the CDU, which has long been viewed as the party for rural constituents.
"We have to realize the AfD is gaining votes, especially in rural areas feeling economically abandoned," states Lisa Geffken from the Amadeu Antonio Foundation. The party's vote share reached 25.8% among all rural voters, contrasting sharply with its urban support base of just 17.5%.
Analysts attribute this shift to anxieties surrounding economic decline intensified by inflation and growing fears of foreign migration, particularly where the presence of immigrants is minimal. The AfD has cleverly capitalized on these sentiments, promoting narratives against what they term 'woke elites,' which have garnered traction among rural voters disillusioned by socioeconomic neglect.
Accompanying this electoral rise is the emergence of the term 'remigration' within mainstream political discourse. Historically, remigration refers to migrants returning voluntarily to their countries of origin. Yet recently, it has taken on undesirable political connotations, becoming intertwined with exclusionary ideologies. Following its adoption by AfD leaders, including Alice Weidel, the term is increasingly linked with large-scale repatriation efforts.
Philipp Adorf, from the University of Bonn, notes the term has found its way from nationalist circles to public conversations, effectively becoming part of the party's campaign platform. With the AfD advocating for the immediate deportation of around 250,000 foreigners deemed 'unwelcome,' concerns mount about the societal ramifications of such divisive language and policy proposals.
The coalition building following the elections will determine how Germany navigates this complex political climate. The ruling CDU's partnerships could either push it toward harsher immigration policies or encourage more moderate approaches focused on integration.
DaMost, representing migrant organizations, emphasizes the psychological effects such rhetoric can have: "The effects would be dramatic: an increase in fear and social division." Anxiety prevalent among migrant communities signals how the AfD's electoral success might affect public perception when immigration is framed as detrimental rather than beneficial.
Indeed, the election results, showing nearly 30% support for far-left and far-right parties like Die Linke alongside the AfD, have ignited discussions about the stability of Germany's political center. Central Jewish community leaders underline serious concerns about the AfD's connections to antisemitism and notions associated with neo-Nazism, warning about the dangers these narratives pose to the socio-political fabric of Germany.
Looking at the long-term impact of these developments, experts warn of significant changes anticipated to public sentiment around immigration—long seen as integral to Germany’s economy and cultural diversity. Adorf cautions, "Embedding remigration within political discussions allows its connotations to flow subtly, redefining societal notions of belonging and worth, primarily through the lens of exclusion."4
Equally concerning is the anxiety felt by migrant communities, particularly concentrated in regions where support for the AfD exceeds 40%. This sentiment has been exacerbated by public and political discourse focusing predominantly on migrants as problems rather than assets to society. Many migrants who have lived peacefully within German communities now express fears about their rights and dignity.
Despite these challenges, civil society movements are beginning to mobilize against the backdrop of these rising far-right forces. Streets filled with protests against tightening migration laws showcase growing public resistance to divisive narratives promoted by the AfD, especially among those advocating for equitable rights for migrants. DaMost highlights, "Public protests indicate many stand firm against these divisive forces," stressing the necessity for solidarity and championing rights for marginalized individuals.
Friedrich Merz, newly elected as chancellor, faces the immediate challenge of forging alliances to stabilize mainstream governance and deter extreme influences. With Merz leading the CDU, political analysts point out he must distinguish between successfully dealing with pressing issues like immigration and maintaining the fundamental values of inclusion and equality.
He has indicated intentions to recalibrate Germany's approach to immigration policy, advocating for both effective border control measures and pathways for qualified immigration, as echoed by previously adopted “Agenda 2010” reforms. Merz stresses, "Germany needs to regain control over who lives here whilst welcoming those genuinely seeking refuge."4
This political realignment urges citizens across the spectrum to address what it means to coexist amid differences. Discussions loom large over how Germany should balance economic growth and social responsibility without succumbing to the polarizing tactics employed by the far right.
The cracks appearing within Germany's political majority and the prevailing support for nationalist narratives ask pivotal questions about the future of its diverse society. Whether the mainstream can effectively counter such ideologies and fortify democratic values remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the stakes are indisputably high amid changing tides.