On September 14, 2025, Germany’s political landscape shifted dramatically as voters in North Rhine-Westphalia—the country’s most populous state and industrial powerhouse—cast their ballots in closely watched local elections. The results, according to preliminary official data reported by Al Jazeera, DW, and Bloomberg, delivered a clear victory for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which secured 33.3 percent of the vote. Yet, the real story emerged in the striking gains made by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which nearly tripled its support compared to five years ago, reaching 14.5 percent and overtaking the Greens to become the third-largest party in the state.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) trailed in second place with 22.1 percent, while the Greens, once a rising force, suffered significant losses and finished just behind the AfD at 13.5 percent. For many, these results signaled not just a routine electoral contest, but a referendum on Germany’s direction—and raised urgent questions about the rise of right-wing populism in what has historically been a western stronghold of centrist politics.
North Rhine-Westphalia, home to nearly a quarter of Germany’s 83.51 million people and the industrial Ruhr region—including cities like Cologne, Düsseldorf, Duisburg, and Gelsenkirchen—holds immense political and economic sway. The state generates roughly 20 percent of Germany’s GDP, making its elections a barometer for national sentiment. On Sunday, approximately 13.7 million people went to the polls, deciding the fate of around 20,000 parliamentary seats across almost 400 towns and municipalities, as well as mayorships in larger cities.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took office in May 2025 and hails from North Rhine-Westphalia, faced his first major electoral test. While the CDU’s victory provided some reassurance to his government, the surge of the AfD set off alarm bells among Germany’s political establishment. North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst (CDU) called his state the “powerhouse” of the governing party, but he didn’t mince words about the implications of the results. “This result must give us pause for thought; it means we cannot rest easy. Not even my party, which won the election so decisively,” Wüst told public broadcaster ARD. He continued, “What are the right answers when it comes to poverty and migration? Are all parts of our social system truly fair?” For Wüst, the AfD’s strong showing was above all a protest vote, reflecting deep-seated anxieties among voters.
The AfD’s success was impossible to overlook. The party, founded in 2013 by right-wing economists during the European debt crisis, has moved further right in recent years, fiercely opposing Germany’s decision to welcome over a million refugees from the Middle East and Africa in 2015. Its anti-immigration message continues to resonate, even as asylum applications have recently declined. In North Rhine-Westphalia, the AfD’s 9.4 percentage-point increase since the last local elections in 2020 marked the fastest growth among all parties. According to Bloomberg, the AfD will now head to runoff mayoral races in key cities such as Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen, and Hagen—places where economic hardship, unemployment, and immigration have become hot-button issues.
AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla were quick to celebrate. Weidel called the result a “huge success,” while Chrupalla posted on X, “This is a great success for us. We are a people’s party and we all bear a great responsibility for Germany.” State leader Martin Vincentz went further, declaring, “It was a referendum on the direction of our country. And those who ignore the will of the voters will be punished by the voters.” According to DW, more than 5,000 AfD candidates ran in the elections, with Weidel stating their goal was to “put an end to the political mismanagement of the establishment parties.”
Political scientists were quick to analyze the significance of the AfD’s gains. Oliviero Angeli of the Dresden University of Technology told Al Jazeera, “While the AfD remains five to 10 percentage points below its national average, it is nonetheless consolidating its position in western Germany.” He noted that migration remains the party’s core issue, and that it continues to mobilize supporters around this theme despite changes in the national conversation.
The election results also reflected broader national trends. Both ruling parties—the CDU and SPD—lost ground, intensifying pressure on Chancellor Merz’s government to revive economic growth and enact reforms. The Greens, once seen as a rising alternative, suffered a bitter setback. For cities like Gelsenkirchen, which has struggled with dilapidated infrastructure, high unemployment, and a large immigrant population, the results represented a dramatic shift: the AfD won more second votes than any other party in February’s federal elections, breaking decades of SPD dominance.
While the local elections had no direct consequences for the federal government in Berlin, their symbolic weight was considerable. The new coalition government, formed after the collapse of the previous SPD-Greens-FDP alliance, has struggled to maintain popularity, especially as issues like housing shortages, domestic security, and asylum policy have become more pressing. The catastrophic flooding in the Ahr Valley in July 2021—part of which lies in North Rhine-Westphalia—left lasting scars, and the ongoing war in Ukraine and violence in the Middle East have added to the sense of uncertainty among voters.
Notably, the elections drew international attention for another, more somber reason: in the weeks leading up to the vote, seven AfD candidates died under various circumstances. This prompted a flurry of speculation, particularly in right-wing circles online. However, German authorities stated there was no evidence of third-party involvement in any of the cases, seeking to quell rumors and maintain public trust in the electoral process.
Yet, the AfD’s rise has not come without controversy. In May 2025, Germany’s domestic security agency branded the party a threat to democracy, describing it as a racist and anti-Muslim organization that “aims to exclude certain population groups from equal participation in society” and “subject them to unconstitutional discrimination.” The agency accused the AfD of stirring “irrational fears and hostility” toward minorities, citing “numerous xenophobic, anti-minority, anti-Islamic, and anti-Muslim statements continually made by leading party officials.” The AfD, for its part, condemned this classification, calling it “a blow against democracy.”
Politicians from other parties, especially in neighboring states, expressed concern about the AfD’s momentum. Olaf Lies, SPD premier of Lower Saxony, told ARD television, “This should give us pause for thought because this is a path that is emerging, and we democrats must counter it.”
As Germany’s political center grapples with the implications of these results, the message from North Rhine-Westphalia is clear: old certainties are fading, and new political forces are gaining ground. The coming months will test whether Chancellor Merz and his government can address the economic, social, and cultural anxieties driving voters toward the extremes—or whether the AfD’s rise in the west marks the start of a broader shift across Germany’s political map.
