According to the latest INSA-Sonntagstrend survey published on March 22, 2025, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is closing the gap on the CDU/CSU, signaling a shift in the political landscape of Germany. The survey revealed that the AfD's support has risen to 23 percent, making it the party's best performance since January 2024. In contrast, the CDU/CSU has seen a decline in voter support, dropping to 27 percent, which is a one-point decrease compared to the previous week.
This change is significant, given that just a few months ago in November 2023, the CDU/CSU held a 14-point lead over the AfD. The situation has become even more precarious as the gap has narrowed to only four percentage points, highlighting a substantial shift in voter sentiment. During the federal election in February 2024, the CDU/CSU maintained a 7.8 percent lead over the AfD.
Hermann Binkert, the head of INSA, noted, “The AfD is benefiting from the coalition negotiations between Union and SPD. Many voters are disillusioned by the Union's debt package and are turning to the AfD.” This sentiment reflects a growing concern among voters regarding the CDU's handling of financial matters, particularly in light of recent debt proposals that have sparked disappointment within the electorate.
Alongside the rise of the AfD, the survey also showed a drop in support for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which fell to 15 percent, while the Greens gained a point to reach 12 percent. The Left party remained steady at 10 percent, with the BSW at 5 percent, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) stagnant at 3 percent.
These dynamics suggest that if elections were held today, parties aligned in a coalition of the Union, SPD, and Greens would constitute a stable majority of 54 percent in the parliament. However, a collaboration between the Union and the AfD would also yield a majority of 50 percent, despite the CDU/CSU ruling out a coalition with the far-right party.
The changing preferences of voters also echo trends noted by various polling institutes in Germany. For instance, the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) tracks the average results of the last ten polls daily, providing a clear perspective on party performance in the background of shifting political alliances.
The landscape of German politics is shifting as the AfD has risen to become the second strongest party in the polls for the first time since mid-2023, capitalizing on the vulnerabilities of the ruling coalition. Following the 2021 federal election, the SPD initially emerged as a dominant force but was quickly overtaken by the CDU/CSU.
In assessing the lasting impacts of the current political developments, it's essential to understand how various polling methodologies contribute to the results. For example, Allensbach employs in-person interviews with selected individuals, while other agencies like Verian and Forsa utilize telephone interviews. Meanwhile, INSA and Yougov rely on online surveys among targeted groups.
This diversity in methodology presents opportunities for a richer understanding of public opinion but also emphasizes the uncertainty inherent in political forecasts.
As Germany braces for the potential implications of these changing dynamics, observers and constituents alike watch closely how voter sentiment continues to evolve. The shifting support for the AfD illustrates significant challenges for established parties to retain voter allegiance amid mounting public dissatisfaction with handling issues such as debt and coalition politics.
Ultimately, as the political landscape continues to change, the decision-making of both voters and party leaders will remain critical in determining the direction of future policies and alliances within the nation.
