In a stunning turn of events during the 2025 federal election, the Greens leader Adam Bandt lost his long-held seat of Melbourne, marking a significant shift in Australia's political landscape. Bandt, who had served as the MP for Melbourne for 15 years, was defeated by Labor's Sarah Witty, who had previously run unsuccessfully for a local council seat.
The election, called by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on March 28, 2025, saw the Greens facing a potential disaster as they struggled to maintain their presence in the House of Representatives. As the results rolled in, it became clear that the party might be left with no members in the lower house, a shocking outcome for a party that had once been a formidable force in Australian politics.
On election night, the atmosphere at the Greens’ celebration in Melbourne’s Docklands was one of misplaced optimism. Activists who had dedicated themselves to the campaign were unaware of the unfolding disaster. Bandt had confidently predicted victories in nine lower house seats across the country, including retaining Melbourne and three Brisbane seats, but as the night progressed, it became evident that the Greens were facing significant losses.
By the end of the night, the party had lost two of the three Brisbane seats they had hoped to keep, and both Melbourne and Wills were on a knife edge. Bandt, speaking to supporters, proclaimed, “One thing is clear, we have kept Dutton out!” However, this cheer was soon overshadowed by the grim reality that awaited them.
A week later, on May 8, 2025, Bandt conceded defeat, falling short by 4,000 votes on a two-party-preferred count. His loss was attributed to a combination of factors, including a redistribution of electoral boundaries that had lowered his primary vote from 49.6% in 2022 to 44.7%. The two-candidate preferred basis had similarly dropped from 60.2% to 56.5%.
Electoral analyst Kevin Bonham noted that the Greens faced a "perfect storm" of challenges. The redistribution not only diluted Bandt's support but also saw a significant swing against him in progressive booths, such as Fitzroy and Collingwood. This shift was compounded by a change in preference flows, with more Liberal and One Nation votes going to Labor than in previous elections.
As the Greens reeled from their losses, Bandt pointed to a “relentless and despicable” negative campaign by the main parties and a Labor-Liberal preference swap that had contributed to the party's downfall. He described electorates affected by these swaps as “purple” seats, a mix of red and blue, which had severely impacted his electoral chances.
The Greens had once been seen as a rising force in Australian politics, but their recent performance suggests a stagnation in support. Following the election, the party's national primary vote was projected to end at around 11.74%, just shy of the 11.76% they achieved in 2010. This decline has been attributed to a drift of Millennial voters towards Labor, with younger voters in Generation Z still showing support for the Greens.
In a post-election analysis, Kos Samaras from Redbridge Consulting explained that while the Greens have maintained some support among younger voters, the Millennials, now in their 30s, have become more pragmatic and centrist, leading to their shift towards Labor. The Greens’ focus on contentious issues, such as their stance on Gaza and Labor's housing policies, may have alienated some of their traditional voter base.
The electoral landscape has shifted dramatically, with the Greens losing their grip on key demographics. The party's confidence heading into the election was misplaced, as they failed to adequately address the changing political climate. Bandt's loss is emblematic of a larger trend, where the once-dominant third party is now struggling to maintain relevance amid a rapidly evolving political environment.
While the Greens have one lower house seat left, Ryan in Queensland, their future remains uncertain. Bandt's leadership and the party's strategies will be scrutinized in the coming weeks as they attempt to regroup and redefine their approach. The sentiment among analysts is that the Greens can bounce back, but they must adapt to the new political realities and reconnect with voters who have drifted away.
As Bandt prepares to step down, he emphasized the importance of the Greens in the Senate, where they will still wield significant influence. He stated, “I hope [the government] understands it would be a lot better to listen to what the Greens put forward. And if we don’t address climate change, those purple seats will go Green.”
In the wake of the 2025 federal election, the Greens face a crucial period of reflection and adaptation. The loss of Adam Bandt’s seat not only signifies a setback for the party but also raises questions about its future viability in the Australian political landscape.
