Abortion access in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the three years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and 2025 has brought a new and surprising twist: for the first time since the ruling, the number of clinician-provided abortions is declining. According to a comprehensive analysis released by the Guttmacher Institute on September 30, 2025, about 518,940 abortions were provided by clinicians in states without near-total abortion bans during the first six months of this year—a 5% drop compared to the same period in 2024.
This reversal stands in stark contrast to the immediate aftermath of the 2022 decision. As reported by TIME, the number of abortions performed by clinicians in most of the U.S. jumped 11% in 2023 over 2020 levels, with a further—though much smaller—increase of less than 1% in 2024. But now, the trend has shifted, and the landscape is more complicated than ever.
One of the most notable findings in the Guttmacher report is the significant decrease in the number of people traveling across state lines for abortion care. In the first half of 2025, interstate travel for abortions dropped by about 8% compared to the same period in 2024. However, researchers were quick to point out that this figure is still “significantly higher” than before Roe was overturned, underscoring the ongoing impact of state-level restrictions and the patchwork of abortion laws across the country.
Isabel DoCampo, a senior research associate at Guttmacher and co-author of the new analysis, told TIME that the data only reflect abortions provided by clinicians in states without near-total bans. “We shouldn’t consider these estimates to reflect trends in abortion nationwide,” she cautioned. That’s because the data exclude abortion pills sent to states with near-total bans under so-called shield laws, as well as self-managed abortions—forms of care that have become increasingly important as legal barriers have multiplied.
Shield laws, a relatively new legal innovation, allow clinicians in states where abortion remains legal to prescribe and mail abortion pills to patients in states with near-total bans. DoCampo emphasized the significance of this development: “This is an innovation of the last couple years that I think has been incredibly important, and it’s important that policymakers and advocates continue to protect and expand these provisions because it’s clear that they’ve been incredibly important to the abortion access landscape in the U.S.”
While shield laws may be providing vital access for some, the overall decline in clinician-provided abortions is also linked to the increasing financial and logistical burden of traveling for care. “The need for policymakers to address some of these financial strains” is clear, DoCampo said, noting that the drop in out-of-state travelers is especially pronounced in states that implemented new restrictions in 2024.
Florida, for example, enacted a six-week abortion ban in 2024, replacing its previous 15-week limit. The impact was immediate and profound: the number of abortions provided by clinicians in Florida plummeted by 27% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year. This single state’s dramatic change highlights how quickly and sharply access can be curtailed when laws shift.
Illinois, long considered a haven for those seeking abortion care from neighboring states with stricter laws, has also seen a significant decline in out-of-state patients this year. According to the Guttmacher Institute, this drop accounted for nearly three-quarters of the overall decrease in abortions provided in the state. “Declining travel is the primary source of the decline in caseloads in Illinois,” DoCampo explained, suggesting that the burden of travel—whether due to cost, distance, or fear of legal repercussions—is becoming too great for many.
Yet the picture is far from uniform across the country. In New York, for instance, the number of abortions performed by clinicians decreased by about 5% in the first half of 2025. But at the same time, the number of people traveling to New York for abortion care surged by approximately 51%. Researchers believe this is likely due to increased travel from Florida, where new restrictions have forced residents to look farther afield for care.
Despite these regional differences, the overall trend is clear: the era of rising abortion numbers in the wake of Roe’s reversal has ended, at least for now. But does this mean fewer people are seeking abortions, or are they simply finding other ways to access care?
Diana Greene Foster, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco, who was not involved in the Guttmacher research, voiced her concerns to TIME. She agreed that the apparent decline could be due to people turning to shield laws or self-managed abortions—routes that the current data do not capture. “A decrease, to me, just raises the concern that there could be people who want abortions who don’t get them,” Foster said. Her own research has shown that being denied an abortion can lead to worse economic and health outcomes for women. “My big concern is whether people who need to travel are able to travel,” she added. “We don’t know from this data that they’re not, but it is a concerning possibility.”
The legal stakes around abortion access were underscored again on September 30, 2025, when NBC Palm Springs reported that Louisiana had issued an arrest warrant for a California doctor in connection with mailing abortion pills—a stark reminder of how aggressively some states are enforcing abortion bans in the post-Roe era. This event highlights the growing tension between states with restrictive laws and those enacting shield laws to protect providers and patients.
The debate around reproductive rights is not limited to the United States. As discussed in a conversation replayed on September 30, 2025, by an Australian broadcaster, the fight for abortion access remains a pressing issue in Australia as well. Notably, Western Australia decriminalized abortion on March 27, 2024, a significant milestone in the region’s ongoing struggle for reproductive autonomy. The program featured Dr. Susie Allanson, who led campaigns for safe access to abortion in Melbourne, and lawyer Lizzie O’Shea, who reflected on the global implications of the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the continuing fight for reproductive rights in both countries.
As the U.S. continues to grapple with the fallout from the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision, the data from Guttmacher and the stories emerging from states like Florida, Illinois, and Louisiana paint a complex picture. Shield laws are providing new avenues for access, but they are not a panacea. The burdens of travel, cost, and fear of prosecution remain formidable obstacles for many. And with state legislatures and courts continuing to reshape the legal landscape, the future of abortion access in America remains as uncertain—and as fiercely contested—as ever.
The shifting numbers and legal battles of 2025 serve as a stark reminder: the fight over abortion is far from settled, and the choices made by lawmakers, advocates, and individuals in the coming months will determine the shape of reproductive rights for years to come.
