The early stages of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary are already taking shape with myriad candidates making strategic moves to position themselves for the race. Political analysts suggest this upcoming primary could be one of the largest and most competitive yet, with Vice President Kamala Harris at the center of the conversation.
After losing her bid for the presidency, Harris is reportedly weighing her options for the future, including another potential run for president or opting for the gubernatorial position back home in California. According to Politico's Christopher Cadelago, "If she ran again in 2028, she’d be walking to (likely) one of the biggest, rowdiest Democratic primaries yet." Within her party, many still view Harris as having run a strong campaign, and she is not likely to clear the field if she does decide to enter the race again.
The urgency surrounding Democratic aspirations has only heighted since the ending of the 2024 election. Reports indicate candidates have been maneuvering behind the scenes for some time, preparing quietly for their bids as they await the formal start of the campaign season.
Holly Otterbein, also from Politico, highlighted the unique circumstances surrounding the 2028 Democratic primary, noting, "The 2028 presidential primary began years ago (sorry haters! I don’t make the rules!)." With 2024 moving to a close and Trump on the verge of office once more, this drive is already affecting candidates’ strategies and their relationships within the party.
Among those potential challengers is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has been positioning himself as the leader of the Democratic resistance. He, alongside other hopefuls like Wes Moore from Maryland and Raphael Warnock from Georgia, signifies the variety of voices and experiences entering the race.
"What strikes me about what Chris noted about Newsom and Holly noted about Fetterman is there is no party-wide consensus on what the message should be," said Adam Wren, indicating the challenges they face as Democrats navigate distinct political paths going forward.
Some candidates are managing their image by taking public stances on policies and engaging with key voter demographics even before officially announcing their candidacy. Across several states, hopefuls are engaging with party activists, pushing their narratives during fundraisers and grassroots events, which could influence the early primaries significantly.
According to Lisa Kashinsky's observations, "The moves some of these potential candidates have made since Trump’s win have been telling." The competition is not solely about who can espouse the most progressive agenda, but also about who can ride the waves of voter sentiment most effectively—though it's unclear which message will resonate most leading up to the primaries.
For political hopefuls, timing is everything. The candidates are tasked with effectively communicating their stories and platforms—a challenge compounded by the media's transformation since the last election. The dwindling ratings of traditional cable news present dilemmas for Democratic aspirants to capture attention where their messages can gain traction among voters.
"At the end of the day, this is still a Democratic primary, and Democrats will not score many points simply by agreeing with Trump," Cadelago notes, reaffirming the need for candidates to define themselves against the backdrop of the Republican former President.
With gender dynamics also playing out under the lens of the 2024 election fallout, potential women candidates face scrutiny over their electability. Harris’s loss has exacerbated doubts about women leading the Democratic ticket, which may discourage some women from entering the field—or compel them to reconsider their messaging strategy greatly. Cadelago points out, "I can’t see how women who run in 2028 won’t face the same ‘electability’ questions, which was the euphemistic way of saying, ‘how can a woman win.’" Such evaluations among party members can have enduring effects on campaign strategies for female candidates.
Even as candidates carve out their niches, the reflection on their party’s ties to Trump presents dual challenges. The candidates must articulate distinct approaches to dealing with Trump, either framing him as the enemy or attempting to connect with his base via shared economic hardships, as several Democrats have begun to do.
The 2028 Democratic primary is shaping up to be a sprawling contest with varied motivations among its candidates. It’s unclear how the party will rally together, but as the primary state dynamics evolve, it’s certain to remain at the forefront of political discourse for the next few years as hopefuls emerge from the flock to lead.
Both seasoned politicians and new voices will compete for the support of Democratic voters, leading to what many expect may be one of the most unpredictable primaries yet. Candidates must continuously reevaluate their strategies and outreach efforts, as the race gears up to deliver the next Democratic nominee for president.
