2025 is marking significant shifts in global weather patterns as the planet transitions from the record heat of 2024, driven largely by the El Niño phenomenon, to the cooler conditions heralded by the onset of La Niña.
According to experts, particularly Roman Vilfand, the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, La Niña is currently manifesting as lower water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This transition is expected to bring cooler conditions, albeit with Vilfand noting, "That is, not a very long and not intense La Nina. The estimates are as follows so far, they are being clarified" (RIA Novosti). The elation stemming from this change is tempered by the news of the intense heat experienced previously, with 2024 recognized as the hottest year on record, partially due to El Niño, which contributed to global mean temperatures reaching 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
These atmospheric changes are particularly felt on the ground. For residents of San Antonio, Texas, the first months of 2025 have been uncharacteristically cold. They’ve experienced significant shifts as multiple arctic cold fronts swept through South Texas, leading to unusually low temperatures. The city recorded ten days with subfreezing lows, including six consecutive days between January 19 and January 24. The average temperature for San Antonio during January was 48.5 degrees, making it the second coldest January since 1988.
With February now upon us, historical weather patterns suggest typical warming trends; February often sees temperatures 4 to 5 degrees warmer than January as the Northern Hemisphere tilts more toward the sun, increasing daylight and solar radiation. Despite this pattern, cold outbreaks are still notable possibilities for this time of year. Long-range weather models indicate, overall, warmer conditions, with expectations of temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above average for much of South Texas.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center lends credence to these expectations, asserting there’s a 78% chance of near-average or above-average temperatures throughout February, with only about 22% chance of below-average conditions. The CPC outlook also indicates relatively dry weather, predicting an 82% chance of near-average or below-average precipitation.
While predictions lean toward warmth this month, certain historical precedents temper optimism, as Texas is known for its temperature swings, particularly during February. The recollections of the severe freeze from February 2021 remain fresh, and residents and forecasters alike are keeping watch for potential significant cold weather outbreaks.
The advancements and the underlying science of these predicted climatic shifts are fascinating yet alarming as scientists increasingly recognize the patterns at play. The dual impacts of El Niño and La Niña are not just statistical anomalies; they’re indicators of the broader climate shifts fueling our changing world.
Looking forward, as 2025 progresses, attention will remain focused on the interplay between warmer and cooler phases, precipitating uncertainty. People around the globe will closely monitor how La Niña settles, and whether or not predictions remain stable, as these weather patterns significantly influence regional climates.