The 2025 Oscar nominees for Best Documentary Feature will be revealed on January 23, and predicting which films will make the cut is proving to be more complex than ever. This prestigious category has seen its share of surprises and disappointments, with the Academy’s Documentary Branch often veering off the expected path when selecting nominees.
Last year, predictions were thrown for a loop as Gold Derby's combined odds got just two of the five nominees right: the eventual winner, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Four Daughters. This year, the Academy has narrowed its choices down to 15 films, but the precursor awards have presented mismatched signals, showcasing the difficulty of anticipating the outcomes.
Historically, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) has made strong predictions, but last year showed their limitations. The PGA's top contender, American Symphony, which chronicles musician Jon Batiste’s creative struggle as his wife, Suleika Jaouad, battled cancer, received zero Oscar nominations. Meanwhile, standout films like Beyond Utopia, which racked up numerous nominations from the PGA, DGA, and BAFTA, also faltered at the Academy Awards. Perhaps the biggest shocker came with Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, which won accolades from the Emmy Awards and National Board of Review but failed to be recognized when the Oscar nominations were announced.
Last year's award season cautioned viewers against over-relaying on guild choices. The Documentary Branch has shown distinct preferences, often sidelining biopics of famous personalities; the last celeb-focused doc to clinch the award was Amy back in 2016. This year’s awards also feature films like Will and Harper, which might tussle with the Academy’s apparent disdain for celebrity docs.
The Directors Guild of America (DGA) has been somewhat more aligned with the Academy, with nominees like Daughters, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Sugarcane appearing on both lists. Interestingly, the DGA honored films like 20 Days in Mariupol last year, making them reliable indicators of potential nominees. Yet, past occurrences remind us not to get too comfortable — films have made headlines arriving at the Oscars without prior guild recognition.
The predictably unpredictable nature of Oscar nominations looms large, especially considering last year's absentees who ended up claiming nominations, such as The Eternal Memory and To Kill A Tiger, both of which weren’t nominated by the PGA and DGA. It is worth noting, though, the last film to win without receiving recognition from these guilds was 20 Feet From Stardom back in 2014, subtly showing how arbitrary these guilds can be when pinning down the nominees.
Delving deep, the BAFTA awards have emerged as useful predictors for the Oscars, but even here, there have been recent challenges. BAFTA correctly picked the best documentary Oscar winners for the past four years, but their nominee list from last year included four films like American Symphony and Beyond Utopia, all of which were neglected during the Oscar nominations. The contrasting distinctions between BAFTA and the Academy seem to widen, particularly since BAFTA tends to lean more favorably toward celebrity-focused documentaries, potentially placing films like Will and Harper at risk of missing the Academy's shortlist.
This year's BAFTA nominees include Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, and yet to be determined concerning whether Super/Man will remain relevant by January 23. The concern revolves around the fact many of these films have histories of varying fortunes between the two awards shows, casting uncertainty across the lineup.
According to the International Documentary Association’s (IDA) awards, No Other Land swept the awards for Best Feature and Best Director, showing its commanding presence this season amid tough competition. Other serious contenders include Daughters, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Sugarcane. Without incumbent limitations, these works set up formidable stakes across the board.
The competition among these documentaries arises as No Other Land has received multiple early accolades, including three wins from various platforms this season, establishing it as the frontrunner for possible nominations at the Oscars. Meanwhile, Sugarcane leads the race with six nominations. One must ask — will this landmark race continue yielding up surprises on January 23?
Forecasting the nominees for the Oscar's Best Documentary Feature category remains one of the most challenging tasks. Based on current award season results, there is potential for intertwining dramas — with films like No Other Land, Sugarcane, Daughters, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Dahomey leading the projected nominations.
Although the Oscars may bring forth some surprises, the talks of the possibility of significant shifts with guilds’ nominees reflected, and indicators like BAFTA giving guidance across borders yield strong takeaways — the documentary race for 2025 will prove not just competitive, but unforgettable.