The upcoming awards season is heating up as predictions for key nominations reflect the changing pulse of Hollywood. With the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) and the Grammy Awards both fast approaching, industry experts and fans alike are buzzing with speculation over who will take home prestigious honors.
According to Variety’s senior awards editor Clayton Davis, Netflix’s Spanish-language musical crime drama Emilia Pérez has made waves after its dazzling display at the Golden Globes, now expected to command attention at the SAG Awards with four significant nominations. These include coveted spots for best cast ensemble, actress for Karla Sofía Gascón, and two nominations for supporting actress, featuring stars like Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña.
Not far behind, Universal’s blockbuster musical Wicked and Focus Features’ theological thriller Conclave are both projected to earn three nominations each. Interestingly, the SAG NomCom, responsible for determining the nominees, has garnered attention for its reputation of surprising outcomes—a trait evident with films like House of Gucci which performed well at the SAG but missed out during the Oscars, leading to many eyebrows raised.
With the nominations set to be unveiled on January 8, the competition is fierce, particularly for the coveted best actor slot. The contenders are numerous, with Daniel Craig's transformative portrayal in Queer, Hugh Grant's chilling performance in Heretic, and Sebastian Stan showcasing his talent across two notable performances, The Apprentice and A Different Man.
Meanwhile, the best actress race promises similarly high stakes. Gascón's impressive performance alongside Cynthia Erivo for Wicked tops the expectations, but other contenders like Demi Moore and Mikey Madison are now stirring significant buzz. Then there's Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose role in Hard Truths recently earned her the rare critics’ trifecta, joining the ranks of esteemed actresses who’ve garnered such accolades.
But wait, there’s more! The supporting actress categories could see Clarence Maclin and Danielle Deadwyler, both previously overlooked at the Globes, reclaim recognition. Names like Stanley Tucci and the dynamic duo from A Complete Unknown, Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro, only add more wild card potential to the mix.
Shifting focus from film to television, the SAG Awards historically provide a glimpse of the Emmy race. FX’s epic drama Shōgun is poised to earn its place as the most decorated series of all time, racing against Netflix heavyweights like The Diplomat and Squid Game.
On the comedy front, ABC’s Abbott Elementary promises to outperform with its agile wit and impeccable ensemble. It has become one of the darlings of the awards scene, maintaining strong competition against Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, featuring comedy icons Steve Martin, Martin Short, and Selena Gomez, alongside FX’s culinary hit, The Bear.
After the SAG Awards, the Grammys are poised for January 3’s final voting statement showdown, spotlighting several leading themes this year. Major categories reveal Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan nominated across the Big Four categories, raising expectations among fans and critics. But the heat is particularly on Beyoncé, who hopes to secure album of the year with her work on Cowboy Carter. Having lost out previously four times, fingers are crossed as Jay-Z’s poignant comments last year still resonate: “She has more Grammys than everyone and never won album of the year.”
Predictions indicate tough competition for Beyoncé; nominees for album of the year also include Andre 3000’s New Blue Sun and Taylor Swift’s latest effort, The Tortured Poets Department, both of which have their fair share of buzz.
Further analyzing the race reveals historical trends—albums nominated for album of the year often come from the genre nomination pool. Hence, Beyoncé having been nominated for best country album could place her on the leaderboard, and Wicked’s BRAT stands out as well.
Predictions continue with the song of the year and record of the year featuring heavy hitters: Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold 'Em,” Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” and new names like Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” are all front-runners. It is worth watching how the narratives play out, especially with artists like Billie Eilish possibly vying for historical recognition as she and her co-writer, Finneas, seek to garner their third wins this year.
Finally, artists like Daniel Nigro and Mustard have all the rights to feel optimistic as they tackle the category for Non-Classical Producer of the Year. Overall, with expectations setting us up for unpredictability, this awards season is shaping up to keep viewers on the edge of their seats for the announcements, which will come soon, making January 8 the date for SAG nominees and the Grammys beyond.