The 2025 Academy Awards are just around the corner, slated for February 28, at the iconic Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, and anticipation is at an all-time high. This season stands out not just for its touted nominees but for the unprecedented unpredictability shaping this year’s race. Unlike past years dominated by clear frontrunners, the absence of overwhelming favorites has kept everyone guessing: which films and stars will emerge triumphant?
Leading the pack is Anora, directed by Sean Baker, which captures attention as the presumed frontrunner for Best Picture. This unique film, based on Katy Perry’s “Waking Up in Vegas,” has generated significant buzz and has been described as having "an underdog scrappiness". Critics suggest its combination of charm and humor sets it apart, making it feel deserving of the top honor. Pete Hammond of Deadline captures this sentiment well: "...no one is sure how the Oscars will play out this year due to numerous wild card contenders."
Next up is Emilia Pe9rez, which showcases the life of a transgender Mexican cartel boss—a narrative unconventional enough to capture the interest of modern audiences and Academy voters alike. Its mix of musical elements and drama has the potential for multiple wins across different categories, raising discussions among film critics about its standing and possible upsides during Oscar night.
Meanwhile, another contender, The Brutalist, directed by Brady Corbet, has its own distinctive presence. This lengthy film reflects on architecture and humanity, compellingly engaging voters with its stunning visuals and storytelling depth. Experts suggest this film may not only compete for Best Picture but could also sweep several technical categories, adding to its attractiveness as a nominee.
Classic Academy fare, Conclave, remains the closest thing this year has to a traditional heavyweight. This papal drama appeals to Academy voters with its blend of intrigue and moral dilemmas, making it another strong contender for the night. Many analysts predict it may strategically benefit from the preferential voting system, as it could likely strike multiple voters as the second favorite on their ballots.
There’s no denying this Oscar season is laden with uncertainty—an aspect niftily illustrated by the delayed precursor ceremonies caused by the recent L.A. wildfires. The effects of those delays have rippled through the entire awards circuit, complicate predictions from seasoned experts. "This year has been remarkably wide open, making predictions especially tricky," shared one industry insider. With the British Academy and SAG awards making unexpected swings, clarity has been hard to find.
Looking more intricately at individual categories, the Best Director race is tight between Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). The former’s collaborative, improvisational style stands contrasted against Corbet's detailed precision. This dichotomy epitomizes the choices voters might face, as each director presents compelling arguments for why their film should win. The narrative could easily shift depending on how Academy members respond to each approach.
When it’s time for actors to take the stage, expect competition across various performances. Adrien Brody is positioned as the strong frontrunner for Best Actor owing to his performance as a struggling architect. On the other hand, Timothée Chalamet—who had been making headlines with his campaign—could throw up surprises following the recent SAG wins. Hammond’s comment resonates here: "With the narrative arc having less clarity, we expect surprises across multiple categories."
The Best Actress category appears equally charged, with newcomers like Mikey Madison from Anora making waves. Yet, there’s much anticipation surrounding Demi Moore's turn in The Substance, as her heartfelt portrayal might resonate deeply with voters who appreciate comeback stories.
Equally exciting is the Best Supporting Actress category, where Zoe Saldaña faces off against some impressive contenders. Saldaña’s chances may have improved as the conversation surrounding her co-star's controversies prompted voters to rally behind her talent.
With additional categories including Best Adapted Screenplay—where experts predict emotional narratives like A Complete Unknown could dominate—it’s evident this year’s Oscars deliver intrigue across the board. Each film and performance is worthy of note, as they embody the exploration of diverse stories reflecting modern societal themes.
The documentation of this year’s expected outcomes suggests several outcomes are possible; awards may go against traditional favorites. The thrilling unpredictability has kept not only audiences invested but also cinephiles eager to see who will finally emerge on top.
This year is about celebrating variety and acknowledging unconventional stories, providing the Academy with the chance to recognize those narratives often sidelined. Whether you are one for the favorites or prefer to champion dark horses, this Oscar night promises to surprise everyone. Keep tracking the race as the Academy Awards approach—the stakes have never been higher.