With the 2024 US presidential election looming, the stakes are high, not just for the Americans casting their votes but for countries around the globe. The results will significantly influence international relations, particularly concerning Europe, Australia, and the war-torn region of Ukraine. Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, and Donald Trump, the former president, present starkly different visions not only for the United States but for its allies and adversaries.
The stakes are particularly palpable for European nations, which have watched with concern as the US navigates its role on the global stage. European policymakers have been anxiously studying the potential ramifications of either candidate's victory on their continent. They fear Trump's possible re-election could lead to the US withdrawing support from NATO and the West's stance against Putin's aggression.
A recent article emphasized how Trump's administration, marked by unpredictability, could result in Europe facing increased tensions and insecurity. European leaders recall the three years of Trump's skepticism toward traditional alliances, and they fear his return could spur more chaos, not just for Europe, but globally. According to experts, Trump's presidency poses a significant threat of diminishing international cooperation.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris, should she become president, signifies continuity for U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning NATO and global security alliances. Harris has made her support for Ukraine clear, stating, "We will stand firmly by Ukraine and our NATO allies for as long as necessary" against Russian aggression. Should she ascend to the presidency, this steadfast commitment could reinforce transatlantic ties and bolster the efforts against Russian advancements.
The election outcome could also have serious economic consequences. Should Trump secure victory, it is widely anticipated he would impose severe tariffs, particularly on imports from China and potentially even from European nations. Such economic shifts threaten to ignite retaliatory measures, plunging both Europe and Australia—countries within eyeshot of trade turmoil—into challenging negotiations just as many are striving to stabilize after the chaotic shifts induced by the pandemic.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is keeping a close watch on the developments told reporters, “The outcome of the US election will have consequences for us all. We’re heavily influenced by the direction the US takes.” Whether under Trump or Harris, Australia’s diplomatic and trade strategies depend heavily on its relationship with the US, often viewed as its staunchest ally. Economic, military, and strategic concerns hang finely balanced on these election results.
Both candidates have shown strong interest toward Australia's AUKUS pact with the UK and the US for nuclear submarine technology. That's particularly important for Australia, which views the agreement as pivotal in responding to regional tensions brought about by China's assertive posture. If Trump wins, analysts suggest he might create strain on Australia's alliance commitments, as he did previously by questioning NATO's relevance. Harris’s continuity stance may maintain stronger cohesive defense strategies among allies.
The 2024 election is expected to have ripple effects across the globe. Many commentators remind us of how Donald Trump's controversial first term galvanized nationalist/populist waves across Europe, shaking democratic institutions to their core. With his return, it could lead to even more fragmentation. Experts warn of the uncontrolled impact of his rhetoric and policies on right-wing movements gaining followers across the continent, potentially dismantling regional stability.
If Harris wins, the additional optimism among European liberal-democratic leaders might shift the tide against rising populists within their own nations. The hope is her potential administration would bolster shared democratic values and create more substantial barriers against the encroachment of right-wing ideologies.
Yet, even if Harris does take office, the transition could lead to hesitation on strict international partnerships from some European countries, fearing US dominance and influence over their internal matters. This perspective presents challenges, particularly on climate initiatives where European nations hope to collaborate closely with America. Many anticipate Harris will promote climate action, but achieving shared goals might necessitate reaffirming trust from European leaders still cautious from the volatility seen under Trump.
Media narratives leading up to the election reveal Americans are somewhat ambivalent too; it is unclear how long the public can sustain its interest and support for Ukraine's cause, particularly with images of war and suffering becoming part of the norm. Polling from July indicated diminishing numbers of Americans believing Russia's invasion poses substantial risks to US interests, showcasing potential future hurdles for either candidate should they want to sustain momentum.
Voter turnout is expected to be historic. Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the outcome of the US elections will not only mirror domestic interests but also reshape global dynamics significantly. How the next leader of the world’s foremost power navigates these alliances, economic ties, and security situations will weigh heavily on the future of many nations, making this election one of the most consequential of our time.
Whatever the final call on the ballot box, it will reverberate worldwide, determining whether America rekindles its role as the leading defender of democratic values and global cooperation, or retreats behind protective walls, letting chaos reign beyond its shores.
