With the year drawing to a close, Italy's political scene reflects both stability and challenges, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Recent polling data from Nando Pagnoncelli, published by Corriere della Sera, provides insights on the shifting tides of public opinion since the last general elections on September 25, 2022.
According to Pagnoncelli, the approval rating of Meloni's government stands at 41%, dipping three points from 2023 and showing a more substantial decline of 13 points since her inauguration. Despite the drop, it’s noteworthy how this contraction compares to previous administrations, which often experienced far more significant reductions. The Berlusconi IV government saw approval plummet by 16 points, and Renzi's cabinet dropped by 23 points during similar timeframes.
What appears to underpin Meloni's relatively stable standing is the perception of her government on the international stage. Amid political turmoil and economic difficulties faced by other leading European nations like France and Germany, Meloni’s administration has been recognized by the U.S. publication Politico as the "most powerful person in Europe". This international recognition adds to her government's credibility, even as domestic challenges loom.
Among voters, discontent has been particularly evident within the lower socio-economic classes, including the unemployed, homemakers, and blue-collar workers, who have expressed growing disappointment with the fulfillment of campaign promises. This demographic's decrease in approval signals increased skepticism as the government grapples with economic struggles, including issues within the automotive sector, declining growth, and stagnation of purchasing power.
When analyzing party-specific dynamics, Pagnoncelli reports positive shifts for several parties. Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) leads with 27.6% of voter intentions, marking a modest increase of 1.6 points since the 2022 elections. Following closely is the Partito Democratico (Pd) at 22.5%, which has gained 3.4 points since last seen during the elections, showcasing how the opposition is recalibring itself. The Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S), meanwhile, is at 13.3%, which is down over two points from the previous election but shows improvement over the recent European elections.
Smaller parties like Alleanza Verdi Sinistra (AVS) are also making gains, now standing at 6%, up by two points compared to the last polls. The shifting preferences indicate not only competitiveness among major parties but also growing attention to alternatives.
The polling results illuminate the increasingly volatile nature of electoral decisions among Italian voters. Alarmingly, about two-thirds of FdI voters are reportedly considering support for other parties, reflecting potential instability. Similar sentiments are present among 62% of Pd supporters. Conversely, M5S voters remain more steadfast, being the only group where the majority does not entertain alternative party choices.
This electoral uncertainty may complicate future coalitions. The center-right coalition currently holds about 45.3% of the votes, posing challenges for the opposition coalition led by the center-left, which struggles to solidify votes without alliances—especially with the M5S. Without cooperation from the M5S, the center-left seems unable to surpass 35.8% of potential votes, necessitating dialogue and compromise among various factions.
The current political environment suggests the likelihood of tensions persisting as Italy moves toward its future elections. Elly Schlein and the PD may need to unite with the M5S to mount a viable challenge against Meloni's FdI-led government.
According to Pagnoncelli, the discontent among lower socioeconomic classes can often yield higher volatility and dissatisfaction with government effectiveness, marking the significance of economic performance on voter sentiment.
Looking forward to 2025, the resolution of existing coalitional frictions among opposition parties may be significant for altering the political balance. The current electoral trends indicate both the opportunities and challenges facing the center-left as they maneuver within the constraints of established voter behavior.
Summarily, as 2024 concludes, it presents itself as not just reflective of past performance metrics but also sets the stage for upcoming political strategies and coalitional truths. The interplay of public perception, economic realities, and party dynamics promises to keep Italian politics as much fluid as it is engaging for the electorate.
