Global temperatures have shattered records, with 2024 officially recognized as the hottest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed earlier this month what climate scientists had long feared: temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for the first time, raising fears about what the future holds as we enter 2025.
Looking to January 2025, data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicates this month is poised to be the warmest January ever recorded, averaging 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels. This surge echoes the alarming warning from scientists who have pointed out the long-term effects of human-induced climate change.
Notably, January 2025 signifies not just another record-breaking day; it marks another month where global temperatures have persisted above 1.5°C. Since the establishment of the Paris Agreement, where nations committed to limiting warming to within 1.5°C by the end of the century, this has become the fourth January to register such significant warming, with 2024’s January previously standing at 1.63°C above the historical average.
The consequences of rising temperatures have been tangible and catastrophic. The increasing frequency of heatwaves, floods, and droughts exemplifies the immediate impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. Climate scientists agree their observations reveal concerning patterns. “A single year with a temperature above 1.5°C is not enough to confirm... the threshold has been permanently exceeded,” warns Quentin Lejeune from Climate Analytics. Such statements reflect the complex reality of climate science.
The uptick of January's temperatures is not merely due to the cyclical influences of climate phenomena, like the recent El Niño, which typically brings some warmth but has surprisingly allowed for record levels of warming. Instead, research suggests it speaks to something more enduring: the underlying level of long-term warming now negates these natural fluctuations.
Frédéric Hourdin, research director at the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute, noted, “Current temperatures fall within the range predicted by models 40 years ago.” This assertion raises alarms as we face the unnerving prospect of climate change repercussions stretching far beyond our individual lifetimes, influencing weather patterns and ecosystems for generations.
Despite some nations showing progress by reducing emissions, global emissions continue to rise—by 0.8% last year alone. Climate action to curb these emissions is central for keeping warming within manageable limits. Already, preliminary data suggests 2025 may join 2024 and 2023 as one of the warmest years on record, with January’s data reflecting this concerning upward trend.
The gravity of continuing on this path is underscored by projections from the United Nations, predicting potential global temperature increases by 3°C nearing the end of this century should current policies remain unchanged. Such dire forecasts only serve to reinforce the urgency with which we must act.
Our fragile ecosystems also bear the brunt of these extreme conditions. Coral reefs face catastrophic extinction risks; projections indicate as much as 90% of tropical corals could perish if temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C and reach 99% at 2°C. Other natural systems we rely on for stability may soon face irreversible changes.
The long-term outlook is grim without decisive and immediate climate action. Ocean currents, like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which regulate European climate, are already reported to be on the brink of collapse, promising continuous climate instability should temperatures not stabilize soon. “Every degree of warming brings more suffering,” emphasizes Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, underscoring the pressing need for action and adaptive strategies.
Despite the growing scientific consensus, and the passionately argued stances within the scientific community, action to curb emissions remains painfully slow. A growing faction of scientists is urging the acknowledgment of these realities, with discussions at climate conferences centering on failure to maintain the 1.5°C target. While permanent overshoot is politically concerning, many scientists advocate for keeping the 1.5°C as not just attainable but necessary.
With January ending and the path appearing exceedingly clear, it has never been more urgent to acknowledge the global cooperation and substantial changes needed for reversing the damage done and ensuring our planet remains hospitable for future generations.