There’s an unmistakable tremor running through New York City politics as the mayoral race barrels toward its November 2025 climax. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Socialist Assemblyman once dismissed as a long shot, now stands as the odds-on favorite to become the city’s next mayor. According to the betting platform Polymarket, as of August 14, Mamdani holds an 82% chance of victory—a record high and a figure that has sent shockwaves through both the city’s political establishment and its diverse communities.
Just three months ago, few would have predicted this dramatic turn. Yet, as both VINnews and recent polling data confirm, Mamdani’s rapid ascent has been fueled by a combination of deep voter dissatisfaction, a fractured opposition, and a groundswell of support from younger, more progressive New Yorkers. His campaign’s central promise: to tackle the city’s spiraling affordability crisis with bold measures like freezing city rents and launching city-run grocery stores. These proposals have drawn fierce criticism from conservatives and business leaders, who warn of dire economic consequences if implemented, but for many struggling residents, Mamdani’s message resonates like a lifeline.
But the road to City Hall is far from smooth. The city’s Jewish and pro-Israel communities are especially uneasy, as Mamdani—openly aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, a group that supports BDS and has refused to condemn Hamas terrorism—could usher in a dramatic shift in City Hall’s stance toward Israel. “Many Jewish leaders fear his administration would embolden anti-Israel sentiment in city politics, erode support for law enforcement, and weaken protections for Jewish New Yorkers,” VINnews notes. This anxiety is heightened by a recent wave of intimidation and protests targeting Jewish businesses, synagogues, and events across the city.
Meanwhile, the city’s political establishment is in disarray. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, is polling at just 9% citywide, though he remains a formidable force in the Bronx, where he and Mamdani are neck-and-neck—each capturing about a third of voters, according to the latest polls. The Bronx, notably, was the only borough where Cuomo decisively outperformed Mamdani during the Democratic primary, winning by 18 points (54%-36%). His strength there is rooted in the African-American vote, which still heavily favors him, particularly among older voters. Yet, Mamdani’s recent outreach to Black communities, especially younger voters, is beginning to show signs of narrowing this gap.
Mayor Eric Adams, once a symbol of law-and-order, now finds himself in political freefall. With support barely in the single digits, Adams is dogged by ongoing investigations into corruption and bribery, including a 2024 indictment and a high-profile pardon from President Trump. His only remaining claim to credibility—having overseen a period of declining crime in the city—has been overshadowed by a new and more damaging probe into alleged NYPD corruption. As a result, Adams’ continued presence in the race appears to do little more than fragment the anti-Mamdani vote.
Enter Curtis Sliwa, the Republican dark horse and longtime crime-fighter, who is staging a surprising comeback in Queens. Sliwa, who lost badly to Adams in 2021, is now polling at 18% in Queens, capitalizing on a decade-long rape crisis and rising fears about public safety. He’s back on the subways, channeling his days with the Guardian Angels, and insiders say this could mark just the beginning of a Sliwa surge. Yet, with crime down citywide but up in Queens, and with public trust in law enforcement at a low ebb, it’s unclear whether Sliwa’s tough-on-crime message will resonate beyond his core base.
The city’s business elites, meanwhile, are gearing up for battle. Plans are underway to launch a "Stop Mamdani" campaign—funded by realtors, supermarket owners, and other high-powered interests—set to kick off in earnest after Labor Day. Their warnings are dire: that Mamdani’s "radical" policies could trigger capital flight and economic calamity. Yet, as VINnews and other observers point out, the business community remains as fragmented as the anti-Mamdani political opposition, unable to unite behind a single alternative candidate.
National political heavyweights are watching closely. The mayoral race is increasingly seen as a referendum on former President Trump, whose pardon of Adams and rumored backchannel dealings with Cuomo have only added to the intrigue. Democratic leaders like Senator Chuck Schumer and Governor Kathy Hochul have so far avoided taking sides, wary of alienating either the party’s progressive base or its centrist core. Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Leader, met with Mamdani as a courtesy, while centrists such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have publicly warned Mamdani that his views on Israel may be "out of bounds." The Democratic National Committee faces a dilemma: openly back Mamdani and risk alienating moderates, or undermine him and risk a progressive revolt.
For all the drama, the central issue remains affordability. Mamdani’s promises to freeze rents and create city-run grocery stores have been lampooned by some—Trump himself reportedly called him a "communist lunatic"—but for many New Yorkers, especially the young and disenfranchised, these ideas represent hope. National polls show a dramatic shift in attitudes among Millennials and Gen Z: as of March 2025, 62% of young voters expressed sympathy for socialism, and a third even said they would support communism. This generational shift has powered Mamdani’s campaign, making him a symbol of anti-establishment rebellion against the city’s "super-rich developers and corrupt government officials," as one observer put it.
Still, there are warning signs for Mamdani. His lead in the polls, while commanding, is just over a third of the vote and hasn’t budged in weeks. The opposition remains divided, but the campaign’s post-Labor Day phase promises to be intense, with the potential for last-minute shocks or realignments. The specter of outside intervention—whether from Trump, national Democrats, or business-funded Super PACs—could yet tip the balance.
As the city’s most consequential mayoral race in decades enters its final stretch, the stakes could hardly be higher. For progressives, Mamdani’s surge is proof that bold ideas and outsider energy can still upend the status quo. For moderates and conservatives, his rise is a warning of the risks of political fragmentation and the dangers of radical change. And for millions of ordinary New Yorkers, the campaign is a referendum on the city’s future—its affordability, its safety, and its identity as a place of opportunity for all.
Whatever the outcome in November, New York’s next mayor will inherit a city at a crossroads, with challenges as daunting as any in its history—and a restless electorate demanding answers, not platitudes.
