With the November 4 general election looming just six weeks away, the race for New York City’s next mayor is all but dominated by one name: Zohran Mamdani. The 33-year-old Democratic nominee, a sitting Assembly member and self-described democratic socialist, holds a commanding 20-point lead over his nearest rival, according to a Suffolk University CityView poll released September 24, 2025. The poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters between September 16 and 18, shows Mamdani with 45% of the vote, leaving former Governor Andrew Cuomo—a once-towering figure in New York politics—trailing at 25%. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, both running as independents, register just 9% and 8% respectively.
It’s a remarkable shift in a city where political tides can turn quickly and where, just months ago, the contest was expected to be a bruising, down-to-the-wire battle. Instead, as amNewYork reports, the race has settled into a “holding pattern,” with Mamdani’s support appearing almost impervious to the relentless political attacks from his opponents. “Zohran is heavily likely to win in November; he has not made any mistakes this general election,” Democratic strategist Trip Yang told amNewYork. “Zohran’s numbers are like Teflon; no matter how many ill-intentioned attacks from his opponents, his favorables are still really high.”
Indeed, the Suffolk University poll reveals a broad and diverse coalition behind Mamdani. He enjoys majority support among Black (53%), Latino (52%), and Asian (58%) voters, with significant backing from white voters as well (38% for Mamdani versus 30% for Cuomo). This diverse base has only grown since Mamdani’s sweeping victory in the Democratic primary, where he bested Cuomo and a crowded field of contenders. According to the poll, the issues driving voter decisions are affordability (21%), crime (20%), economy/jobs (14%), housing (9%), local response to Trump initiatives (8%), racism/justice/equality (7%), and schools/education (6%). “This poll shows that the issues New Yorkers really care about in this election are affordability, crime, and the economy,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told the New York Post.
The race’s dynamics have been shaped not just by Mamdani’s policy positions, but also by the unique composition of his opposition. Both Cuomo and Adams, once stalwarts of the city’s Democratic establishment, are running on independent lines after Adams skipped the Democratic primary amid the fallout from federal corruption charges—charges that were ultimately dropped by the Trump administration. Their campaigns have focused heavily on criticizing Mamdani’s lack of executive experience and his previous far-left stances. Yet, as Yang points out, these attacks have had little effect, largely because “mudslinging from someone who is disliked is not effective.” Voters, Yang argues, are willing to give Mamdani “leeway to shift with nuance on some positions” because they view him favorably.
Chris Coffey, CEO of Tusk Strategies and a former Cuomo campaign advisor, told amNewYork that the only scenario in which Mamdani’s lead could be threatened would be if the race narrowed to a one-on-one contest or if a seismic event—political, natural, or otherwise—upended the status quo. But with both Adams and Sliwa refusing to drop out, and no such event on the horizon, Coffey says, “You would need the race to really change in order for Zohran Mamdani to not win the race.”
In the final weeks before Election Day, Mamdani’s campaign has begun to consolidate support from the Democratic Party establishment, a move that could further solidify his frontrunner status. Governor Kathy Hochul, after months of deliberation, recently endorsed Mamdani, praising him as the candidate “best positioned to fight President Trump’s immigration crackdown and social safety net cuts.” Her endorsement appeared to open the floodgates, with Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins following suit. Stewart-Cousins even campaigned with Mamdani in Manhattan last Friday, signaling a united Democratic front. While U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have remained on the sidelines, the New York Post reports that Jeffries is in talks with Mamdani about a possible endorsement.
Meanwhile, as Mamdani’s victory looks increasingly likely, New York City’s powerful business community is preparing for a new era at City Hall. Members of this community have begun forming an advisory group to guide Mamdani should he clinch the mayoralty. The group includes Andrew Milgram, who runs Marblegate Asset Management, and Kevin Ryan, founder of AlleyCorp. OneNYC, an independent expenditure committee backing Mamdani, is organizing the council, drawing on suggestions from Partnership for New York City CEO Kathy Wylde. Her organization represents a coalition of over 300 of the city’s largest banks, law firms, and media companies. The move signals a pragmatic approach from the city’s business elite, who appear eager to have a seat at the table as Mamdani charts his path forward.
For his part, Mamdani has walked a careful line, maintaining his identity as a democratic socialist while signaling openness to working with a broad array of stakeholders. His campaign has sought to reassure moderate Democrats and independents that, while his roots are on the party’s left flank, his administration would prioritize the bread-and-butter issues dominating the polls: affordability, public safety, and economic opportunity. The willingness of Democratic leaders to endorse him, despite “many disagreements,” as Hochul noted, suggests that the party establishment sees Mamdani as a unifying figure—at least relative to his embattled rivals.
Yet, the contest is not without its uncertainties. The Suffolk poll’s margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points, and as any seasoned New York political observer knows, last-minute surprises can and do happen. Still, with early voting set to begin in just over four weeks, Mamdani’s position appears as solid as any candidate in recent memory. “Things happen that change the outcome of the race, but once you’re in that territory, you’re in the ‘I need something drastically different to change the outcome of this race territory,’” Coffey told amNewYork.
For now, all eyes remain on Mamdani as he prepares to transition from insurgent candidate to likely mayor-elect. The city’s voters have made clear what they want: solutions to affordability, crime, and economic challenges, and a leader capable of bridging divides. Whether Mamdani can deliver on those expectations is a question that will define New York’s future—but for the moment, the race is his to lose.
