With less than two months to go before New York City voters head to the polls on November 4, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani has surged to a commanding lead in the mayoral race, according to a wave of recent polls reported by The New York Times, City & State, and Quinnipiac University. The 33-year-old Democratic Socialist, who clinched a decisive victory in the Democratic primary earlier this year, appears to be outpacing his rivals by margins that would have seemed improbable at the start of the campaign.
One of the most striking findings comes from a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from September 2 to 6, which found Mamdani garnering support from 46% of likely voters—an imposing 22-point lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who trailed at 24%. The poll, which included leaners and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, placed Republican Curtis Sliwa at 15% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at just 9%.
These numbers are echoed, albeit with slight variations, in other recent polls. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted between September 4 and 5 and shared with City & State found Mamdani leading with 39% support among 556 registered voters, with Cuomo at 25%, Sliwa at 13%, and Adams at 12%. The poll, which had a 4.2-point margin of error, was commissioned by the advocacy group Decriminalize Sex Work. It also revealed that about 11% of respondents were still undecided, hinting at some volatility but not enough to seriously threaten Mamdani’s front-runner status.
Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 4 to 8 with 967 likely voters found Mamdani at 45%, Cuomo at 23%, Sliwa at 15%, and Adams at 12%. The Quinnipiac survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, also highlighted the enthusiasm gap between candidates: a striking 91% of Mamdani’s supporters described themselves as enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to 79% for Sliwa, and 75% for both Cuomo and Adams. "In a mayoral race that seems to grow more intense by the day, Zohran Mamdani has the wind at his back less than two months until Election Day," said Mary Snow, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, underscoring the momentum behind Mamdani’s campaign.
What’s driving this remarkable surge? Mamdani’s campaign has been boosted by endorsements from progressive heavyweights like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, both of whom have lent their support to the candidate’s message of economic justice and affordability. According to campaign spokesperson Dora Pekec, "New York City is not for sale. The backroom scheming from Donald Trump and the billionaire class is backfiring, as New Yorkers see Zohran Mamdani is the only candidate who will fight to make the most expensive city in the country more affordable." Pekec added, "Our campaign is busy building a movement that puts working people first – mobilizing thousands to get involved in the democratic process and fight for a new kind of politics."
Yet, the path to City Hall is not without its complications. The race has been marked by a series of rumors and political maneuvers, particularly involving efforts to consolidate the field against Mamdani. Early September saw reports that officials within the Trump administration were considering offering Mayor Adams a position in Washington in hopes of persuading him to exit the race, thereby improving Cuomo’s odds. Adams, however, has repeatedly insisted he’s staying put, even as speculation continues to swirl. The prospect of a consolidated anti-Mamdani coalition remains a live question, though polls suggest that even in a one-on-one matchup, Mamdani would retain a narrow edge.
Party affiliation also looms large in the contest. The Public Policy Polling survey found that 69% of respondents identified as Democrats, 13% as Republicans, 4% with the Working Families Party, 1% with the Conservative Party, and 13% as independents or members of smaller parties. This breakdown hints at the city’s enduring progressive tilt, which has likely contributed to Mamdani’s dominance—though it also means that any late-breaking shifts among independents or swing voters could still matter in a close race.
Despite his strong standing, Mamdani faces significant headwinds among certain voter blocs, most notably Jewish New Yorkers. The Quinnipiac poll found that three-fourths of likely Jewish voters disapprove of Mamdani, with only 21% expressing support for his candidacy. Adams, by contrast, leads among Jewish voters with 42%, followed by Cuomo at 20%. Jewish voters also gave Adams a positive job approval rating (58% to 40%), even as the city at large disapproved of his mayoral tenure by a margin of 66% to 28%. Mamdani’s unfavorable ratings among Jewish voters, 75%, stand in stark contrast to his overall favorable rating of 45% citywide.
This tension has been exacerbated by Mamdani’s refusal to condemn the slogan "globalize the intifada," which the Anti-Defamation League has described as "an act of incitement that encourages violence against Jews." Mamdani has also accused Israel of committing "genocide" in Gaza, further fueling controversy and drawing criticism from across the political spectrum. These positions have become flashpoints in a campaign that is otherwise dominated by issues of affordability, public safety, and the city’s economic recovery.
For former Governor Andrew Cuomo, the campaign has been an uphill battle ever since his stinging loss in the Democratic primary. Now running as an independent, Cuomo has consistently polled in second place, trailing Mamdani by margins ranging from 15 to 22 points in recent surveys. Republican Curtis Sliwa and Mayor Adams, both running as independents, remain far behind in the single digits or low teens, with little sign of a late surge on the horizon.
But as any seasoned New York political observer will tell you, polls are snapshots, not predictions. The city’s political landscape is famously volatile, and the final weeks of the campaign could bring surprises—especially if the field narrows or a major scandal erupts. Still, with Election Day fast approaching and Mamdani’s coalition appearing both broad and enthusiastic, his opponents face an increasingly steep climb.
In a city where politics is a blood sport and every vote counts, the 2025 mayoral race has already defied expectations. Whether Mamdani can ride his current wave of support all the way to City Hall remains to be seen, but for now, he’s the candidate everyone else is chasing.
