Across the United States, a quiet but significant transformation is unfolding for the country’s youth. After years of alarming headlines about rising youth suicide rates and the seemingly inescapable grip of the American prison system, new data suggests that the tide may be turning. In California and nationwide, fewer children are dying by suicide, and fewer young people are being incarcerated—a dual shift that experts say could signal a brighter, if still challenging, future for America’s next generation.
According to an annual report released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, serious suicidal thoughts among 12- to 17-year-olds have dropped from nearly 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2024. The numbers are still sobering: about two-fifths of the 2.6 million adolescents who reported serious suicidal thoughts in the past year also made a suicide plan or attempted suicide. Nonetheless, the decline is seen as a hopeful sign. In California specifically, the number of young people aged 15 to 24 who died by suicide dropped 8% in 2023 compared to the historic peak in 2021, as reported by the California Department of Public Health. Nationally, youth suicides declined by 11% over the same period.
"Suicide is complex, and there’s no one reason behind it," said Stephanie Murray, a school psychologist in the Whittier Union High School District in Los Angeles County, as reported by local media. Factors like unhealthy social media use, bullying, and access to substances or weapons can all play a role, Murray explained. The COVID-19 pandemic, with its social isolation, school closures, and disrupted access to mental health care, was a major driver behind the previous spike in suicides. Now, as communities and schools work to rebuild, mental health professionals are cautiously optimistic.
California, while faring better than much of the nation in terms of youth suicide rates, still faces daunting challenges. Between 2019 and 2021, suicide was the second-leading cause of death for Californians aged 10 to 25. A UCLA report found that nearly a quarter of adolescents aged 15 to 17 in the state reported having had suicidal thoughts in their lifetime, with more than a third of those having attempted suicide. Among young adults aged 18 to 24, over 30% reported suicidal thoughts, and nearly a third had attempted suicide.
For LGBTQ youth, the statistics are even more concerning. According to a report by The Trevor Project, more than 1 in 3 LGBTQ youth in California seriously considered suicide last year, with 1 in 9 attempting it. Transgender and nonbinary youth reported even higher rates—nearly 40% considered suicide, and 15% attempted it. High school surveillance data shows some improvement: suicide attempts among Black students in California fell from 14% in 2021 to 10% in 2023, and serious suicidal thoughts among Hispanic students decreased from 22% to 18% in the same period.
Yet the crisis is far from over, especially for certain groups. By 2023, deaths by suicide among American Indian and Alaska Native youth in California soared to 27 per 100,000—a nearly 50% increase from 2018 to 2020 and the highest rate in a decade. Black youth suicide rates also spiked, increasing by 28% during the pandemic and more than doubling from 6 per 100,000 in 2014 to 13 per 100,000 in 2023.
In response, California has ramped up its prevention efforts. In September 2023, the state committed $16.3 million to community-based and tribal organizations focused on preventing youth suicide. The following March, Governor Gavin Newsom launched the “Never a Bother” campaign, targeting outreach and support for Black, Native American, Hispanic, and LGBTQ youth. Newsom also instructed state agencies to address the mental health crisis among boys and young men, who represent the majority of youth suicides in California.
Schools have become a frontline in these prevention efforts. The Whittier Union High School District, for example, now surveys students twice a year to identify those who may feel isolated or need additional support. According to Murray, "Connectedness is one of the biggest protective factors against suicide. If you have more students that feel connected to trusted adults, that’s going to mean they feel more supported and possibly less likely to either have thoughts (of suicide) or act on those thoughts." Theresa Stevens, administrator for the Riverside County Wellness Collaborative, added, "Through our efforts with building care teams, having wellness centers and having wellness coaches in schools, we’re trying to destigmatize mental health."
Despite these gains, access to treatment remains a hurdle. Of nearly 300,000 youths diagnosed with depression in California, only about a third received treatment as of 2024. While more than half of all children in the state are enrolled in Medi-Cal, many at higher risk of suicidal ideation do not utilize the behavioral health services available to them. Experts emphasize the need for culturally competent care, especially for Black, Indigenous, and Hispanic youth who are less likely to receive support due to stigma and systemic barriers.
Meanwhile, another long-standing crisis is showing signs of improvement: the incarceration of America’s youth. According to The Atlantic, the U.S. prison population peaked at just over 1.6 million in 2009 and dropped to about 1.2 million by the end of 2023. Projections suggest the population could fall to around 600,000—a 60% decline from the 2009 peak. Imprisonment rates for 18- and 19-year-old men have plummeted; today, men in that age group are imprisoned at half the rate of senior citizens.
The decline in youth incarceration has unfolded gradually over more than a decade, often escaping public notice. But its impact is profound. As fewer young people are swept into the prison system, more are able to pursue education, work, and family life—opportunities that incarceration too often forecloses. The reduction in prison population also means less exploitation through penal labor, a system that, according to the American Civil Liberties Union, generates more than $2 billion per year in goods and over $9 billion in services, much of it on the backs of incarcerated workers earning little to nothing.
This shift presents both social and economic challenges. States that have long relied on prison labor must now reckon with the consequences of a shrinking incarcerated workforce. As The Atlantic notes, “States benefiting from prison labor face economic challenges due to the declining prison population and workforce.” Yet advocates argue that the benefits of this change—fewer lives disrupted, less exploitation, and a chance to address the root causes of crime—far outweigh the costs.
Both in mental health and criminal justice, experts stress that the work is far from finished. As Murray put it, "Any decrease in youth suicide is a win. Our work is not done. We have to continue to strive for less and less." The same could be said for youth incarceration. America’s youth, once trapped by cycles of despair and detention, are finding new pathways forward—but the nation must remain vigilant to ensure those doors stay open.
