On October 19, 2025, a message from Chinese President Xi Jinping set off a new wave of political reverberations across the Taiwan Strait, just as Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), elected reformist Cheng Li-wun as its new leader. Xi’s congratulatory note, delivered in his capacity as head of the Communist Party of China, was anything but perfunctory. According to Xinhua and Reuters, Xi called for both parties to "strengthen their common political foundation," urging the KMT and the Communist Party to "unite the majority of people in Taiwan to deepen exchanges and cooperation, boost common development, and advance national reunification."
Cheng, who will officially take over the KMT leadership on November 1, 2025, responded with a careful diplomatic touch. While she acknowledged a shared ethnic heritage by stating both sides were "members of the Chinese nation," she notably sidestepped any mention of political reunification. Instead, Cheng’s reply, as cited by Reuters and Xinhua, emphasized strengthening cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation to "promote peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." It was a statement heavy with meaning—one that signaled both a nod to historical ties and a clear preference for the status quo over Beijing’s more ambitious vision.
This leadership transition comes at a time of heightened tension between China and Taiwan. Beijing continues to assert its claim over the self-governing island, while Taiwan’s government, led by President Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), staunchly rejects any notion of Chinese sovereignty. As Reuters reminds readers, China has refused to engage with Lai, labeling him a "separatist" and instead maintaining the KMT as its preferred dialogue partner.
Cheng’s rise to the top of the KMT, after defeating former Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin and four other candidates, signals a potential shift in the party’s internal dynamics. According to the Telegraph and Al Jazeera, the 55-year-old reformist secured more than 50 percent of the vote, though turnout was less than 40 percent among party members. Her victory, some say, reflects a desire within the KMT for a leader who can both maintain the party’s traditional ties with Beijing and navigate Taiwan’s increasingly complex domestic politics.
Cheng’s stance on defense spending sets her apart from the current administration. Throughout her campaign, she was openly critical of President Lai’s push to increase Taiwan’s defense budget—a policy that enjoys strong backing from the United States. "We must not allow Taiwan to become a sacrifice of geopolitics," Cheng warned, as reported by Al Jazeera. She described the KMT under her leadership as a "regional peacemaker," pledging, "The KMT will make our home the strongest shelter for everyone against the storms of life. Because we will protect peace across the Taiwan Strait." Her message was clear: peace and stability should come before military escalation.
Despite losing the 2024 presidential election, the KMT and its ally, the Taiwan People’s Party, now hold a majority in the legislature. This majority has complicated the DPP’s efforts to pass key budgets and legislation, as noted by both Reuters and The Telegraph. In effect, Cheng’s leadership ushers in an era where the opposition can exert significant influence over Taiwan’s political agenda, even without controlling the presidency.
Yet, the KMT’s internal election was not without controversy. Allegations of Chinese interference loomed large over the campaign. Jaw Shau-kong, the KMT’s vice presidential candidate in the previous election and a supporter of Hau, raised concerns about social media disinformation targeting his preferred candidate. According to Al Jazeera, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau discovered over 1,000 TikTok videos and 23 YouTube accounts discussing the election, with more than half of the YouTube accounts based outside Taiwan. The Bureau, however, did not specify which candidates these videos supported or whether they originated from China.
Cheng herself dismissed the interference allegations as "very cheap labels." Beijing, for its part, was quick to distance itself from the controversy, stating that the KMT election was an "internal matter" and that online comments from mainland China did not represent the official stance, as reported by Reuters and Xinhua.
Still, the accusations found resonance within Taiwan’s ruling party. DPP spokesperson Justin Wu alleged there were "clear signs" of Chinese interference in the KMT election. The KMT, however, brushed off the claims with a curt statement: "Who is this?" Meanwhile, Jaw Shau-kong took to Facebook to urge his party to reduce pro-China influence, writing, "The KMT must recognise that elections are held in Taiwan, and voters are in Taiwan, not mainland China." His remarks reflect a growing concern among some KMT members about the party’s perceived closeness to Beijing—a relationship that, while historically beneficial, may now be a liability amid rising cross-Strait tensions.
Cheng’s personal political journey adds another layer of complexity to the story. She began her career in the DPP before joining the KMT, a move that underscores her pragmatic approach to Taiwan’s ever-shifting political landscape. Her election as chairwoman has been described as a victory for reformists within the KMT, many of whom want the party to chart a more independent course from Beijing while still advocating for dialogue and stability.
International observers are watching these developments closely. The United States, which supports Taiwan’s efforts to bolster its defenses, has yet to comment directly on Cheng’s election or Xi’s overture. However, the broader context is clear: Taiwan’s political future remains deeply entangled with the strategic calculations of both Beijing and Washington, with the island’s own leaders striving to balance security, sovereignty, and economic prosperity.
As Cheng prepares to take the helm of the KMT, she faces a daunting set of challenges. She must reassure the party’s base, address internal divisions, and navigate the ever-present shadow of Chinese influence. At the same time, she will be expected to work with her legislative allies to shape Taiwan’s domestic agenda, all while maintaining a delicate peace across the Strait.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. With Xi Jinping doubling down on calls for reunification and Taiwan’s new opposition leader pledging to safeguard peace, the next chapter in cross-Strait relations is set to be as unpredictable—and as consequential—as ever.
