In the heart of the Amazon rainforest, the world’s attention has turned to Belém, Brazil, where the 30th United Nations Conference of the Parties—COP30—kicked off on Thursday, November 6, 2025. This year’s summit, running through November 21, is unfolding against a dramatic backdrop: record-breaking global heat, deadly extreme weather events, and mounting pressure for action as energy demand continues to rise. The Amazon, long recognized as a linchpin for climate stability, is a fitting stage for what many are calling one of the most critical climate summits in recent memory.
The annual COP gatherings have evolved far beyond their diplomatic origins. According to The New York Times, what started as a relatively modest meeting of policy experts has transformed into a sprawling event, with tens of thousands of attendees ranging from business executives and nonprofit leaders to scientists and activists. This year, the stakes are unmistakably high. As diplomats, heads of state, and government officials gather, the world watches to see if meaningful progress can finally be made on the global climate crisis.
Yet, the summit’s tone is complicated by shifting geopolitical winds and economic uncertainty. Only about 60 nations—including Germany and the UK—are expected to send their heads of state, a sign of both the urgency and the challenges facing international cooperation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is among the prominent leaders in attendance, but the absence of others underscores the political divisions at play.
Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, underscored the significance of the leaders’ presence, telling Deutsche Welle that, “There wouldn’t have been a Paris Agreement without the heads of state leader summit first.” He noted that the involvement of figures like then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former US President Barack Obama was crucial to achieving the landmark 2015 treaty, which committed the world to limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
But the path since Paris has been anything but straightforward. The United States, once a key architect of the Paris Agreement, withdrew from the pact in 2017 under President Donald Trump, who also rolled back federal support for clean energy and promoted fossil fuels. Meanwhile, China has surged ahead, extending its lead in renewable power. According to DW, these divergent policy shifts among the world’s largest economies have created a challenging environment for this year’s talks.
Despite these headwinds, many experts see COP30 as an opportunity to reset the course. Marc Weissgerber, executive director of E3G in Germany, argued that the summit’s leadership is more important than ever given today’s “geopolitical fragility and market insecurity.” He explained, “Countries, industry, investors and citizens are not so sure where the path is going.” The leaders’ summit, he added, must provide a “north star” to guide the coming negotiations.
Yet, even as the summit begins, a sobering reality looms: only about a third of countries had submitted their national goals for reducing emissions just a week before COP30’s start. The targets presented so far amount to a mere 10% cut in emissions by 2035—a fraction of what scientists say is necessary. According to DW, that’s just one-sixth of the reduction required to keep the planet on a safe trajectory.
The United Nations has sounded the alarm. Last week, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres declared that the world will “inevitably” overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement, warning of “devastating” consequences. Scientists widely view this threshold as a critical line of defense against the most severe and irreversible effects of climate change. Rockström echoed this concern, cautioning, “What I fear—which we cannot allow to happen—is if there are suggestions starting to emerge that we should abandon the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit.” He likened the situation to speeding on a highway: exceeding the limit doesn’t mean it should be abolished. Instead, leaders must acknowledge past failures and commit to doing everything possible to minimize the overshoot.
Finance, as always, is a central sticking point. Developing countries have long argued that they bear the brunt of climate impacts while lacking the resources to adapt or transition to clean energy. At last year’s climate conference in Baku, nations set a goal to scale up climate finance to $300 billion annually by 2035. This funding is intended to help the most vulnerable countries cope with climate disasters and invest in sustainable development. However, Marc Weissgerber pointed out that adaptation remains “completely underfunded,” and called for more concrete commitments from wealthy nations.
Another major topic at COP30 is Brazil’s flagship initiative, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). As Carsten Elsner from the Wuppertal Institute explained to DW, the TFFF is a proposed $125 billion global conservation fund designed to reward countries for protecting their forests. Unlike traditional climate finance mechanisms, the TFFF promises a return on investment, making it potentially attractive to donor nations. “I think that the countries will just go for it… it’s something that really can align certain countries in a coalition,” Elsner said.
Alongside these funding debates, the summit is also expected to focus on the so-called ‘Baku to Belem Roadmap,’ an ambitious plan to mobilize $1.3 trillion in public and private funds annually by 2035 to support adaptation and low-carbon development in developing countries. The roadmap’s success, many believe, will hinge on the ability of world leaders to overcome deep-seated political divisions and revive faith in international cooperation.
That challenge is considerable. Lien Vandamme, senior campaigner on human rights and climate change at the Center for International Environmental Law, told DW that leaders must “signify a massive increase in ambition and accountability for lowering emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.” She also pointed to the historic advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice in July 2025, which could pave the way for climate-vulnerable states to seek reparations from major polluters. Whether COP30 will address these legal and ethical questions remains to be seen.
Amid all this, the summit is a test of the global system’s resilience. As a spokesperson from Germany’s environment ministry put it, the event is an “opportunity to show that the vast majority of the global community wants to continue working together to tackle climate change.” With the United States having stepped back from climate leadership, many eyes are on emerging alliances among Brazil, the EU, the UK, and China to fill the void and drive progress.
As world leaders, negotiators, and activists settle into the Amazon’s lush but threatened landscape, the urgency of the moment is hard to ignore. The coming days will reveal whether COP30 can deliver the ambition, cooperation, and concrete action that the planet so desperately needs.
