As the world’s climate crisis intensifies, global leaders are gathering in New York for what’s being billed as the most consequential Climate Week yet. With over 1,000 events scheduled—surpassing previous years—this week’s convergence signals both the urgency and complexity of the fight to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement but increasingly seen as slipping out of reach.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres didn’t mince words. On September 20, 2025, he warned, "We are on the verge of this objective collapsing." According to News Arena Network, Guterres stressed that climate action plans must be fully aligned with the 1.5-degree target, covering entire economies and all greenhouse gas emissions. "We must achieve a drastic reduction in emissions in the next few years if we want to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius target alive," he said. The stakes are high: the United Nations has repeatedly cautioned that countries below sea level and those dependent on oceans for food security—often the world’s poorest—face the gravest risks.
This sense of urgency comes at a time when climate issues have, as Guterres noted, "taken a back seat due to multiple crises, including the Coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the Israeli invasion of Gaza." The climate summit, co-chaired by Guterres and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on September 24, 2025, is viewed as a critical opportunity to advance the COP30 plans and reignite global momentum.
Yet, despite the high-level rhetoric and the swelling number of events, there’s an undercurrent of anxiety about whether governments will deliver. Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, offered a sober assessment to The Guardian: "We’re moving in the right direction. Not fast enough, not deep enough, but [the progress countries have made on moving to a low-carbon economy] is showing that something is working." Still, he acknowledged that governments would almost certainly fail to submit climate commitments sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s demands before this month’s deadline.
Stiell’s warning is grounded in recent history. The deadline for countries to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—the backbone of the Paris Agreement—was originally set for February 2025. However, political upheaval, not least the return of a U.S. administration hostile to climate action, forced an extension to the end of September. Even now, many key nations are lagging. The United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, all major emitters, are expected to present inadequate plans. China, despite significant progress in renewable energy and electric vehicles, is widely anticipated to underwhelm with its new NDC, a move attributed in part to Beijing’s preference for underpromising and overdelivering, and also to caution in the face of global political volatility.
The European Union, long a champion of ambitious climate action, finds itself mired in internal disputes. According to Reuters and The Guardian, the EU has yet to finalize its NDC and will miss the September 30 deadline. Instead, ministers issued a "statement of intent" pledging cuts of between 66.25% and 72.5% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels—a range that falls short of the 79% or more that experts and campaigners have called for. Stientje van Veldhoven of the World Resources Institute cautioned, "If the EU lands on the lower end of the range, like 66.3%, the final stretch to 90% just five years later will be a steep and uphill climb. That does not provide the long-term policy credibility that investors and companies need."
Australia, for its part, has pledged to cut emissions by 62-70% by 2035, but analysts say this is still below what’s needed to align with the 1.5-degree target. The country’s reluctance to commit to a full fossil fuel phase-out has also drawn criticism from environmental groups.
Despite these setbacks, there are glimmers of hope. Stiell pointed to the remarkable growth of China’s green economy: renewable energy now generates a quarter of its electricity, electric vehicles command a 50% market share, and exports of low-carbon goods reached a staggering $177 billion last year. Globally, private sector investments in green energy and low-carbon industry topped $2 trillion in the past year, dwarfing the $1 trillion invested in fossil fuels. "I see promise, I see action," Stiell remarked. "I see tangible output. But not enough."
The private sector’s role is increasingly prominent. According to Reuters, more than half of the world’s largest companies have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, a study by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre at the London School of Economics found that 98% of these companies have yet to outline how their spending aligns with those commitments—a glaring gap between rhetoric and reality.
Climate Week in New York, which has run alongside the UN General Assembly since 2009, has become a vital networking hub for CEOs, investors, and world leaders. This year’s record participation is seen as a counterweight to the current U.S. administration’s climate-denying agenda, which has prioritized fossil fuels and rolled back pollution regulations. "The pull now is coming from stakeholders, from the real economy, from market forces that are pulling forward," former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres told Reuters. Helen Clarkson, CEO of the Climate Group, echoed this optimism: "Actually, there's huge enthusiasm for it."
Finance is a central focus, with companies like Swiss carbon capture firm Climeworks quadrupling their event participation after raising $162 million to advance their technology. Christoph Gebald, Climeworks’ co-chief executive, said, "We're continuing to see demand increase for carbon removals. The level of interest from the most senior levels of companies is higher than ever."
But the challenge remains daunting. As Rajiv Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation, put it, "The challenge for New York Climate Week and beyond is to ensure that individuals and institutions come together in new ways to reimagine how we can cooperate against common threats." A recent survey by the foundation found that 86% of the world’s population believes international cooperation is crucial for climate action.
Stiell, who has witnessed firsthand the devastation wrought by climate change—his home island of Carriacou was ravaged by Hurricane Beryl last year—underscored the mounting costs of inaction. The bill for climate damage already runs to hundreds of billions of dollars annually and is rising. Within a decade, costs could exceed 5% of global GDP each year, threatening unprecedented recession. "Covid and the global financial crisis would pale into insignificance," Stiell warned. "Governments who choose to ignore this, financial advisers and economics who choose to ignore this, do so at their peril."
Still, both Guterres and Stiell see opportunities amid the crisis. Beyond the dire warnings, Stiell wants to highlight the economic benefits of climate action—better jobs, food and water security, improved health, and more resilient economies. "We’ve only been telling a partial story," he said. "Looking at those opportunities and the economic growth that can be stimulated through strong climate action, and how that impacts economic development and growth."
As world leaders prepare for COP30 in Brazil this November, the message from New York is clear: the world is at a crossroads. The next few years will determine not only the fate of the 1.5-degree target but also the shape of the global economy and the well-being of billions. The challenge is immense, but so too is the potential for progress—if nations, companies, and citizens can summon the will to act.
