Predicting bushfires has never been a walk in the park, but over the past year, the world has witnessed wildfires of an unprecedented scale—fires so unpredictable and devastating that even the most seasoned experts have been left scrambling. According to the second annual State of Wildfires report, published in Earth System Science Data and led by a team in the United Kingdom with contributors spanning every fire-prone continent, the 2024–25 fire season painted a stark, alarming picture of our planet’s vulnerability. The numbers are staggering: an area larger than India, totaling 3.7 million square kilometers, was scorched by wildfires globally. These fires affected 100 million people and put about $215 billion in homes and infrastructure at risk, as reported by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH).
Dr. Douglas Kelley, co-lead of the report from UKCEH, summed up the situation with a sense of urgency, stating, “Our reports are building unequivocal evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme wildfires.” The evidence is, indeed, hard to ignore. The report, which covers the period from March 2024 to February 2025, details how climate change has supercharged wildfires worldwide, turning them into what some scientists are calling “monsters.”
Take the Pantanal-Chiquitano region of South America, for instance. There, climate change made wildfires 35 times larger than they would have been in a world without human-caused global warming. In Southern California, the deadly fires that struck in January 2025 were not only twice as likely but also 25 times larger in terms of burned area, thanks to the current climate. These fires claimed 30 lives, forced 150,000 evacuations, destroyed at least 11,500 homes, and resulted in economic losses totaling $140 billion—numbers that are as sobering as they are shocking.
But it’s not just the size and frequency of the fires that have scientists concerned. The emissions from these blazes are accelerating the climate crisis in a vicious feedback loop. Record-breaking fires in the Amazon and Congo, for example, were both accelerated by climate change and contributed to it, releasing billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Canada, meanwhile, experienced its second consecutive year of wildfire CO2 emissions exceeding a billion tonnes, while Bolivia saw its highest CO2 emissions total this century. Several other states across South America also broke records, according to the report.
Dr. Francesca Di Giuseppe from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and a co-lead of the report, explained the mechanism behind these infernos: “Climate change is not only creating more dangerous fire-prone weather conditions, but it is also influencing the rates at which vegetation grows and provides fuel for the fires to spread.” Using satellite observations and advanced modeling, the team of international scientists dissected the causes of major wildfires from the past season, zeroing in on the interplay of climate and land use change.
In Los Angeles, the January 2025 fires serve as a case study in how extreme weather and fuel loads combine to disastrous effect. Unusually wet weather in the preceding 30 months led to lush vegetation growth, setting the stage for wildfires when hot and dry conditions arrived. The result? A perfect storm that devastated communities and left a trail of destruction in its wake. The amount and dryness of vegetation also played a critical role in the extreme wildfires in Amazonia and Congo, where abnormally dry forests and wetlands allowed flames to spread rapidly and uncontrollably.
Australia, too, faced its share of challenges during the 2024–25 fire season. While the total burned area did not match the catastrophic 2019–20 Black Summer fires, the impacts were still significant. More than 1,000 large fires burned around 470,000 hectares in Western Australia, over five million hectares were scorched in central Australia, and major fires erupted around Mount Isa in Queensland. In Victoria, severe dry lightning outbreaks triggered major blazes, including one that consumed two-thirds of the Grampians National Park and another—the Little Desert fire—that burned through 90,000 hectares in under eight hours.
Yet, the unpredictability of Australia’s weather outlook is making the job of forecasting future bushfires even trickier. The turbulence of shifting climate patterns means that communities must be prepared for the unexpected, and policymakers are under mounting pressure to act decisively.
All eyes now turn to Brazil, where in November 2025, world leaders, scientists, NGOs, and civil society will gather for the 30th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30). The State of Wildfires report issues a clarion call for immediate action. Dr. Matt Jones of the University of East Anglia, another report author, didn’t mince words: “World leaders at COP30 must make bold commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions rapidly this decade. This is the single most powerful contribution that most developed nations can make to avoiding the worst impacts of extreme wildfires on living and future generations.”
It’s not just about emissions, though. The report emphasizes the need for a multi-pronged approach, including reducing deforestation, improving land management practices, and enhancing early warning systems. These measures, the authors argue, can help mitigate wildfire risks and build resilience in vulnerable communities.
In Australia, the debate over climate policy has been particularly heated. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s views on the need to add a climate change trigger to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act have shifted dramatically over the past two decades. Back in 2005, Albanese argued, “The climate change trigger will enable major new projects to be assessed for their climate change impact as part of any environmental assessment process and will ensure that new developments represent best practice.” However, as reported by Crikey on October 24, 2025, the prime minister’s current stance appears less committed to integrating climate triggers into environmental law—raising questions among climate advocates and opposition politicians alike about Australia’s readiness to confront its wildfire risks head-on.
This policy ambivalence has not gone unnoticed. Environmental groups argue that without robust legislative action—such as a climate change trigger in the EPBC Act—Australia risks falling behind in the global effort to curb emissions and adapt to a rapidly changing climate. Meanwhile, industry voices and some government officials caution that overly stringent regulations could stifle investment and economic growth, especially in regions dependent on resource extraction.
As the world prepares for COP30, the stakes have never been higher. The past year’s wildfire devastation serves as a grim reminder of what’s at risk—not just for individual countries, but for the entire planet. The choices made in the coming months, both in international forums and national legislatures, will shape the trajectory of wildfire risk for generations to come.
For now, the message from scientists is clear: the world is standing at a crossroads. While the challenges are daunting, the opportunity to act remains. Whether leaders will seize it—and whether communities will be spared the worst of what’s to come—remains to be seen.
