In the turbulent world of British politics, fortunes can shift in the blink of an eye. Just eighteen months after Sir Keir Starmer led Labour to a landslide victory, ending fourteen years of Conservative rule, his grip on power is under intense scrutiny. The latest political odds, shifting alliances, and public frustrations have all combined to create a volatile atmosphere in Westminster, with the question of who might next occupy 10 Downing Street now more open than it has been in years.
According to a Betfred update on November 27, 2025, Labour MP Wes Streeting has emerged as the new betting favourite to become the next Prime Minister. For about a year, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage had been the odds-on favourite, his party consistently polling ten points ahead of Labour. But as of late November, Streeting—currently the Secretary of State for Health & Social Care and MP for Ilford North—has overtaken Farage with odds of 4/1, while Farage now sits at 11/2. Angela Rayner, who recently resigned as Deputy Prime Minister, is third favourite at 13/2, with Shabana Mahmood, Andy Burnham, and Ed Miliband rounding out the top contenders.
This shift comes at a time when Labour’s internal stability is anything but assured. Starmer’s approval ratings have suffered, and poll numbers have been described as "in the mud." The party’s leftward pivot—such as opposing Digital ID proposals—may have pleased some traditional Labour supporters, but it has not yet translated into a clear polling advantage. Allies of Streeting are reportedly frustrated by what they see as the party’s sluggish response to the surging popularity of Farage and Reform UK. The spectre of a leadership challenge looms large, with LabourList polling suggesting Streeting could narrowly win a leadership contest, though many respondents remain undecided.
Meanwhile, the possibility of Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, mounting a leadership challenge has stirred further intrigue. Burnham, a popular figure within the party, is not currently an MP—a prerequisite for any leadership bid under Labour rules. That hasn’t stopped speculation, especially after Labour MP Clive Lewis dramatically offered to vacate his Norwich South seat to enable Burnham’s return to Westminster. Burnham has pointedly refused to rule out a leadership bid, telling reporters that he "appreciates the support" of Lewis and others, but noting that he is not currently in a position to challenge Starmer.
Sir Keir Starmer, for his part, has tried to project unity and focus. Speaking to journalists during a trip to the G20 summit in South Africa, he dismissed talk of Burnham plotting a coup, insisting, "Andy's doing a really good job as mayor in Manchester and we work very closely together." Starmer recounted how the two coordinated closely in the aftermath of a recent attack on a Manchester synagogue, emphasizing their ongoing cooperation. Yet, the Prime Minister’s woes deepened when a second Labour MP, Nadia Whittome of Nottingham East, publicly called for a change in leadership, stating, "I think there does have to be a new leader. Even if Keir Starmer had a radical change of direction, I don't think people would believe him. And I don't think people around him would allow that to happen."
While Labour’s internal drama unfolds, the government faces mounting external pressures, not least on immigration. On November 27, the Office for National Statistics published figures showing net migration to the UK had plummeted to 204,000 in the year to June 2025—a 69% decrease from the previous year’s 649,000. This is the lowest annual figure since 2021, when pandemic restrictions were lifted and the UK’s new post-Brexit immigration system came into force. Net migration had peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has been on a downward trend ever since.
Prime Minister Starmer hailed the drop as a "step in the right direction," telling GB News, "Under the last government we saw the Boriswave. He promised that net migration would come down, but it quadrupled to nearly one million. That was unprecedented. It’s now down to 200,000 or so, and that’s a step in the right direction." The decrease is attributed to fewer arrivals from outside the EU for work or study, coupled with an increase in people leaving the UK. The ONS noted that non-EU-plus emigration is being driven largely by Indian and Chinese nationals who had originally arrived on study visas, and that nine out of ten British emigrants are of working age.
The Labour government has announced further measures to reduce migration, including doubling the wait time for migrants to apply for indefinite leave to remain from five to ten years, and introducing stricter conditions such as a clean criminal record and English proficiency at A-level standard. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said net migration had fallen by more than two-thirds under the current government, but added that ministers would go further "because the pace and scale of migration has placed immense pressure on local communities." In July, the government also raised the salary threshold for skilled worker visas to £41,700 in a bid to curb numbers.
Yet, challenges remain. While net migration has fallen, the number of asylum seekers being housed in hotels has increased, with a new record high in asylum applications. The government has pledged to close all asylum hotels by the next election, but critics note that only 3% of small boat arrivals were removed in the last quarter, while 97% were allowed to stay. The ONS also reported that more British nationals left the UK (252,000) than moved to the country (143,000) in the same period, and that arrivals of non-EU-plus nationals fell by 37% year-on-year, while departures rose by 20%.
Despite the sharp drop in net migration, public perceptions lag behind reality. Polling by Ipsos and the think tank British Future found that 56% of the public believe net migration actually increased last year. Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, commented, "It is time that our immigration debate caught up with reality. Some voices will never be satisfied until immigration is net zero – but they can’t claim to speak for most of the public. With numbers returning to pre-Brexit levels, we need an immigration politics for 2025 and beyond."
Balancing the need to manage migration with economic growth, housing, and public services remains a delicate act. Marley Morris of the Institute for Public Policy Research warned that while government reforms may lead to further reductions, "the Government will need to be careful to balance the need to manage migration with its other priorities on boosting economic growth, supporting housebuilding, and protecting public services."
With Labour’s leadership in flux, migration policy under scrutiny, and public opinion as unpredictable as ever, Britain’s political future feels anything but settled. The next Prime Minister’s path may be lined with more twists and turns before the dust finally settles on this remarkable period in UK politics.
