Warm Front Brings Relief To Midwest And Southwest

As February settles in across the United States, residents from New Mexico to the Midwest are experiencing a dramatic shift in weather patterns, with a promising warm-up on the horizon after a frigid start to the month. According to reporting from regional weather stations and KOMU, this weekend began with single-digit temperatures in parts of the central U.S., while the Southwest braced for a comfortable, drying trend and a notable rise in temperatures.

Early risers in Santa Fe, New Mexico, were greeted by a bracing 26 degrees just after 6 a.m. on February 1, 2026, as noted by local meteorologists. Albuquerque, meanwhile, anticipated a steady climb, with the mercury expected to reach 40 degrees by 9 a.m. on Groundhog Day, which falls on Monday, February 2. The driving force behind this warming trend? A robust high pressure system establishing itself over the region, creating conditions ideal for outdoor activities and a break from the chill that’s gripped much of the country.

“Today should be a nice day for outdoor activities. Temperatures will be trending above average as we have a high pressure system setting up,” one forecaster explained, underscoring the optimism that comes with a respite from winter’s harshest days. The high pressure system, often associated with clear skies and stable weather, is expected to keep New Mexico warm through the start of the week, with Albuquerque projected to hit a comfortable high of 59 degrees by Monday afternoon.

While most of New Mexico can look forward to sunshine and warmth, there is a minor wrinkle in the forecast. A small pocket of moisture was detected just north of Taos, near the northern border. However, meteorologists remain confident that this moisture will dissipate before making any significant impact on the state’s weather. “I don’t really think that it’s going to make a whole… basically a big impact in our forecast. But just letting you know it’s there and it might venture off into New Mexico. I think it will personally die out before it gets there,” a weather expert shared, putting any concerns about precipitation to rest for the time being.

Meanwhile, the story was quite different in the heartland. According to KOMU, Sunday morning in the central U.S. dawned with temperatures in the single digits, compounded by brisk southwesterly winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. For many, it felt even colder, with wind chills dipping well below zero. “It is another frigid start to the morning with temperatures in the single digits. When you factor in southwesterly wind gusts of 20 mph, it’s feeling like the negatives,” a meteorologist noted, painting a vivid picture of the region’s icy grip.

Despite the bone-chilling start, there were signs of hope. A warm front was racing across the central U.S. on February 1, sparking the development of a few flurries. However, these flakes were expected to struggle to reach the ground due to the prevailing dry air, with little to no accumulation anticipated. “While a few flurries will be possible today, they will struggle to reach the surface due to dry air. Little to no accumulation is expected,” KOMU reported. By afternoon, the influx of warmer southwesterly air was set to nudge temperatures into the lower 30s, although skies would remain mostly cloudy.

Looking ahead, forecasters across both regions are in agreement: a gradual warm-up is on the way. In New Mexico, the high pressure system promises above-average highs, while in the Midwest, the cold snap appears to be loosening its grip. “We will see a gradual warm up this week, with a few slight dips in temperature. The warmest temperatures will arrive at the end of the week,” KOMU’s meteorologist predicted, offering a much-needed boost to those weary of winter’s relentless chill.

Nighttime in the Midwest is still expected to bring cold, but not as severe as recent nights. Lows are forecast to dip into the lower 20s, a marked improvement from the single-digit lows that have dominated the past week. Persistent cloud cover will linger through the night and into Monday, but the trend is clearly toward milder conditions.

Groundhog Day brings a bit of fun and folklore into the mix. As the nation tunes in to see whether Punxsutawney Phil will predict six more weeks of winter or an early spring, the weather itself seems to be offering a clue. Across the Midwest, high temperatures on Monday are expected to reach the upper 30s to lower 40s, a significant jump from the recent cold spell. “I will say that we will be entering into our Groundhog Day on a warmer note. High temperatures across the region will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide. Giving us a break from those brutally cold temperatures,” a forecaster from KOMU shared, hinting at the possibility of an early spring—at least for now.

In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the traditional home of Groundhog Day festivities, sky conditions are expected to be partly to mostly cloudy during the morning. While the folklore states that a shadow means more winter and no shadow signals spring, the real weather trend is toward moderation, with the coldest days seemingly behind for now.

As the week progresses, both regions will keep a watchful eye on the next weather system. In the Midwest, a new front is expected to arrive early Tuesday morning. However, models suggest that dry air will again limit precipitation chances, with only a slight possibility of drizzle as the cold front slides through. “Dry air once again looks to bust our chances of any precipitation, with models trending dryer. It is still possible that we could see some drizzle as the cold front slides through the region, so we will want to keep an eye on our moisture and our temperatures,” meteorologists cautioned. After this brief interruption, high pressure is set to reassert itself, leading to even warmer conditions as the week closes out. By the end of the week, some areas may even see temperatures climb into the 50s—a welcome change after the bitter cold.

For those in New Mexico, the forecast is similarly promising. After a brief, minor cool-down, temperatures are expected to remain above average, with clear skies and comfortable afternoons dominating the outlook. The high pressure system, which has been the main driver of this pleasant weather, is expected to persist, keeping the region largely dry and warm.

In sum, while winter isn’t quite finished, residents across the Southwest and Midwest can look forward to a reprieve from the cold. With high pressure systems taking charge and temperatures trending upward, the first week of February offers a taste of spring and a reminder that, even in the depths of winter, change is always just around the corner.