Wall Street kicked off the week on September 29, 2025, with a mixture of optimism and anxiety, as technology stocks rebounded and oil prices tumbled, all while the specter of a government shutdown loomed large over the financial markets. The S&P 500 inched up 0.2% in afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 25 points (0.1%), and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.5%. These modest moves kept all three indexes hovering near their all-time highs, set just a week earlier, according to the Associated Press.
Leading the charge were tech titans Amazon and Microsoft, each posting a 0.6% gain and recouping some losses from the previous week. Their performance underscored the continued influence of Big Tech on market direction, with even small upticks sending ripples through the broader indexes. Meanwhile, the oil sector took a hit, as Exxon Mobil and Chevron dropped 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively, dragged down by a roughly 4% plunge in crude prices. Analysts cited growing speculation that OPEC+ nations might soon raise production limits, fueling concerns of an oversupplied market.
This week, all eyes are fixed on Friday’s upcoming jobs report—a critical data point that could sway the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. The Fed had just delivered its first rate cut of the year, with more penciled in through the end of 2026, a trajectory that’s largely responsible for the stock market’s sharp climb from its April lows. Investors are hoping for a “Goldilocks” jobs number: strong enough to signal economic resilience, but not so robust that it derails the Fed’s rate-cutting plans.
But there’s a wild card in play: the U.S. government faces a potential shutdown if Congress doesn’t pass a funding bill by Wednesday, October 1. As Reuters reported, this standoff between Republicans and Democrats has raised the prospect of significant disruption, not just for federal workers but also for the flow of economic data. “If there is a shutdown, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot publish the employment or inflation data, an October cut is at risk of being delayed,” warned Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies.
The White House, under President Donald Trump, has upped the ante by threatening mass layoffs at some federal agencies should funding lapse. This move could trigger a spike in jobless claims for October, further muddying the economic waters. Democrats, for their part, are pushing for continued support of Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Republicans argue that such debates should wait until after the funding crisis is resolved, according to reporting from multiple outlets.
Historically, government shutdowns have caused only minor and short-lived ripples in the stock market. Yet, as CNBC and Reuters both noted, this time feels different. The economic backdrop—marked by persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, and heightened political polarization—has left investors and policymakers alike on edge. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack described the current environment as “a challenging time for monetary policy” in an interview with CNBC, emphasizing the need for a restrictive stance to keep inflation in check.
Adding to the uncertainty, the total market value of publicly traded U.S. companies has soared to an unprecedented 217% of GDP—a level that Warren Buffett once likened to “playing with fire.” With valuations stretched so thin, any tremor—be it political or economic—could send shockwaves through portfolios. Last week, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 both snapped multi-week winning streaks, underscoring the market’s vulnerability to the current climate of uncertainty.
Despite these jitters, some corners of the market delivered eye-catching gains. Electronic Arts surged 4.6% after confirming a $210-per-share all-cash buyout deal worth over $52.5 billion, which the companies are touting as the largest all-cash privatization in history. CSX also saw its stock climb 3.7% after naming Steve Angel, former CEO of Linde, as its new chief executive.
Meanwhile, marijuana-related stocks soared after President Trump posted a video promoting hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD) as a “game changer” for seniors’ quality of life. Tilray Brands rocketed up 46%, Canopy Growth gained 17.3%, and Cronos Group rose 11% in premarket trading, according to Reuters. Trump’s endorsement injected fresh enthusiasm into the sector, highlighting how political developments can jolt specific industries.
International markets largely followed suit, with Europe and Asia mostly posting gains. London’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%, buoyed by pharmaceutical giant GSK’s announcement that CEO Emma Walmsley will step down at year’s end, to be succeeded by Luke Miels. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.9%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7%.
Other markets were not immune to the week’s drama. Gold prices topped $3,850 per ounce, continuing their record-breaking run as investors sought safe havens amid inflation worries and mounting global debt. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.14% from 4.20% late last Friday, reflecting a cautious but steady demand for government bonds.
Amid all this, investors are closely tracking a packed economic calendar: Carnival earnings on Monday, Nike’s quarterly report on Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence data, and the JOLTS report—all leading up to Wednesday’s ADP Employment Survey and, crucially, Friday’s monthly jobs report. Each release could shift market sentiment and either calm or inflame the volatility driven by Washington’s standoff.
Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and New York’s John Williams, are expected to speak throughout the week, offering further clues on policy direction. Their remarks are being parsed for any sign of concern about the potential loss of economic visibility should a shutdown occur. The central bank’s data-dependent approach makes uninterrupted access to economic reports more critical than ever.
As the week unfolds, Wall Street’s resilience will be tested by a unique combination of political brinkmanship, economic uncertainty, and rapid technological change. Investors are left to weigh whether this time, the familiar drama of a shutdown might have unfamiliar consequences. With confidence fragile and valuations stretched, even a temporary lapse in government funding could trigger outsized reactions—reminding everyone that, in markets as in politics, uncertainty is the only constant.
For now, the fate of both government operations and market momentum hangs in the balance, with the coming days poised to reveal just how much turbulence Wall Street can weather before the next chapter begins.
