On September 9, 2025, voters in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District delivered a resounding victory to Democrat James Walkinshaw, who secured 75% of the vote in a special election to fill the seat left vacant by the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. While this Northern Virginia district has long been a Democratic stronghold—Connolly himself consistently took home around 66% of the vote—Walkinshaw’s nearly 3-to-1 margin over Republican Stewart Whitson was seen by many as a warning sign for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
According to The New York Times, Walkinshaw’s win was expected, but the scale of the victory was notable. For context, former Vice President Kamala Harris also carried the district by about two-thirds of the vote in the 2024 presidential election, and Connolly’s typical two-to-one advantage had seemed secure. Yet Walkinshaw’s 75% share represented a roughly 10-point overperformance, as reported by The Washington Post.
Republican Stewart Whitson, an Army veteran and former FBI agent, was always a long shot in this deep-blue district. But for Scott Presler, a prominent MAGA activist and organizer, the outcome was still cause for alarm. Presler, who has spent years crisscrossing the country to register Republican voters through his PAC Early Vote Action, took to social media to issue a stark warning. “’Scott, Republicans are going to vote on Election Day.’ ‘Scott, there’s no need to vote early or vote by mail.’ ‘Scott, we need everyone to vote on one single day,’” he wrote, mocking common refrains he hears from fellow conservatives. “Y’all are going to lose 2026 & it’s going to be bad.”
Presler’s message was clear: relying solely on traditional Election Day turnout, without embracing early or mail voting, could spell disaster for the GOP. In another post, he doubled down, stating, “Don’t make the same mistake this November. Yes, we have statewide elections this November. Yes, NJ, PA, & VA are voting this November.” He went on to urge support for Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, emphasizing that he had “events lined up” throughout the state.
Presler’s Early Vote Action PAC has targeted a broad range of potential Republican voters—everyone from frat guys to hunters to the Amish, as detailed by CNN. He has claimed credit for helping Donald Trump swing Pennsylvania red in 2024, a feat that drew the attention and financial backing of tech billionaire Elon Musk, who donated $1 million to support Presler’s efforts. The PAC’s strategy: expand the Republican base by meeting voters where they are and encouraging participation through every available channel, not just on Election Day.
Yet despite these efforts, recent trends in party affiliation suggest the GOP faces an uphill battle. As The New York Times reported, Democrats have lost ground to Republicans in all 30 states that track voter registration by party between 2020 and 2024, with Republicans gaining 2.4 million registered voters. The Democrats’ advantage shrank from an 11-percentage-point lead in 2020 to just 6 points in 2024. However, this gain appears to have stalled. Gallup data from late July 2025, cited by The Daily Beast, found that 46% of U.S. adults now identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared to 43% who identify as or lean Republican.
The mood among Republican strategists is increasingly anxious. Presler’s warning is not just about Virginia or even the upcoming New Jersey race—it’s about the broader national landscape. Polls indicate that rising prices and inflation are weighing heavily on voters, and CNN’s data chief Harry Enten has suggested that these economic headwinds could cost Republicans control of Congress in 2026 unless Trump and the GOP can turn things around.
Democrats, meanwhile, have been buoyed by a pattern of overperformance in special elections throughout 2025. According to Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, Democrats have outperformed expectations by an average of +13 points in these contests since the start of the year. Walkinshaw’s landslide win fits this trend, suggesting that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout remain high even in races where the outcome seems predetermined.
Adding to the political intrigue, Walkinshaw has pledged to support a bipartisan House resolution directing the Justice Department to release all investigative files related to Jeffrey Epstein, the disgraced financier who died in jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. Epstein’s connections to powerful figures—including Donald Trump—have fueled speculation and conspiracy theories for years. Despite mounting pressure from Trump’s own base for more transparency, both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have sought to block the release of these files. As The New York Times noted, a discharge petition to bring the bill to the House floor now stands at 217 signatures with Walkinshaw’s support; a special election later this month in Arizona is expected to provide the 218th needed to force a vote.
Presler’s activism continues unabated. He remains a fixture on the pro-Trump media circuit, appearing on podcasts hosted by Donald Trump Jr., Steve Bannon, Megyn Kelly, Dan Bongino, Benny Johnson, and Charlie Kirk. His efforts have not gone unnoticed by the Republican establishment, but his critique of the party’s electoral strategy has put him at odds with some in the GOP who are reluctant to embrace early and mail voting—methods that Democrats have used to significant effect in recent cycles.
For many Republicans, the lessons of Virginia’s special election are sobering. The loss was expected, but the margin was not. As Presler put it, “Y’all are going to lose 2026 & it’s going to be bad.” His warning is not just rhetorical flourish; it’s grounded in hard data and recent trends. Unless the GOP adapts its approach—broadening its outreach, embracing all forms of voting, and addressing the economic anxieties of voters—it risks not only missing opportunities in blue districts, but also losing ground in more competitive contests nationwide.
With the 2026 midterms fast approaching, and with both parties recalibrating their strategies in response to shifting voter sentiments, the aftermath of Virginia’s special election is likely to reverberate far beyond the boundaries of Fairfax County. The stakes are high, and the lessons, if heeded, could shape the balance of power in Washington for years to come.
