As the leaves turn in Virginia, so too does the political landscape, with the state’s upcoming gubernatorial election on November 4, 2025, commanding national attention. In a year when most of the country is taking a breather from high-stakes politics, Virginia and New Jersey have found themselves in the spotlight, their contests seen as crucial bellwethers for the 2026 congressional midterms. But nowhere is the focus sharper than in the Commonwealth, where voters are poised to make history by electing their first woman governor.
The race pits Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA case officer and three-term U.S. House member. The current governor, Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is barred by term limits from seeking re-election, leaving the field open for a new face at the helm. Both candidates bring strong resumes and distinct visions, but the campaign has been anything but typical—marked by national issues, local anxieties, and a fierce debate over the future of abortion rights in the South.
At a rally in Charlottesville on October 21, 2025, attended by roughly 1,300 supporters, Spanberger and her backers made it clear: this election is about more than Virginia. Bill Nye the Science Guy told the crowd that the state would “lead the way” into the 2026 midterms, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg called Virginia “pretty much the center of the political universe.” Spanberger herself addressed the stakes head-on, telling supporters, “We can prove to the rest of the country … when we have the opportunity to make a change at home in our state, we will take it.” According to reporting by The Christian Science Monitor, the rally’s energy reflected a Democratic base eager for a comeback after disappointing results in 2024.
Spanberger’s campaign has been marked by a focus on affordability and cost of living—issues that resonate deeply in a state with more than 155,000 federal employees, many of whom have been affected by a government shutdown now stretching into its fourth week. In her policy documents, she pledges to cut red tape hindering housing construction and to bring down energy bills, aiming to address everyday concerns that cut across party lines. Her moderate tone and bipartisan record—she was ranked among the most bipartisan members of Congress—have helped her appeal to centrist voters. She’s also earned the endorsement of the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, a notable nod in a state where law enforcement issues matter to both sides of the aisle.
Yet, it’s the issue of abortion that has injected the most heat into the campaign. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Virginia became the least restrictive state in the South for abortion access. Currently, abortion is legal through the second trimester, with limited exceptions in the third. Spanberger supports the “Roe standard” and backs a proposed constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state. Her position has drawn sharp criticism from conservative groups like the Virginia Society for Human Life, which warns that such an amendment would “allow unlimited abortions throughout pregnancy, prohibit any future protective regulations, and will threaten Virginia’s Parental Consent law.”
During the candidates’ sole debate earlier this month, Earle-Sears accused Spanberger of holding “the extremist view, which is abortion up until the very hour that the baby could be born, up until the very minute.” When pressed by Earle-Sears on whether a baby born alive after a failed abortion should receive treatment, Spanberger did not respond—a moment that pro-life advocates have seized upon. Olivia Gans Turner, president of the Virginia Society for Human Life, said in a statement, “Under a Spanberger administration, Virginia would see unprecedented growth as an abortion destination and Virginia would become the abortion capital of the south.”
Abortion rights supporters, however, have rallied behind Spanberger. Planned Parenthood and other advocacy groups have praised her as an “abortion rights champion” who will protect both the procedure and access to birth control. The divide couldn’t be starker, and with the election less than two weeks away, polling shows Spanberger holding a 49% to 42% lead over Earle-Sears—a margin that has tightened in recent months, according to a Virginia Commonwealth University survey released this week.
The contest’s national significance hasn’t been lost on party leaders or political analysts. Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin voiced optimism, telling reporters, “What we’re seeing on the ground is giving me great reason for optimism that both in New Jersey that Mikie Sherrill will be the next governor and, in Virginia, Abigail Spanberger will win there as well.” Republicans, meanwhile, are banking on low-propensity voters—those who don’t usually turn out for off-year elections—being energized by former President Donald Trump’s influence, even though he hasn’t formally endorsed Earle-Sears or campaigned for her. In fact, Trump recently described Earle-Sears as “excellent” but called Spanberger “a disaster,” stopping short of a full-throated endorsement.
Despite the nationalization of the race, local dynamics remain crucial. Earle-Sears has campaigned on promises to continue many of Youngkin’s policies, focusing on issues like school bathroom and locker-room policies for transgender students—a topic that has animated her base but may have limited appeal statewide. Her campaign has faced challenges, including high staff turnover and lackluster party support. The state GOP chair recently had to reassure conservative radio listeners that her campaign was “not a clown car.”
Spanberger, on the other hand, has run a disciplined campaign, raising more than twice as much as her opponent and largely avoiding major missteps. Still, she hasn’t been immune to controversy. Following the debate, she was criticized for long, sometimes evasive answers, and the race was briefly overshadowed by violent text messages from Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones. Spanberger denounced the messages but did not call for Jones to drop out, a decision that drew mixed reactions from party insiders and voters alike.
Virginia’s shifting political winds are nothing new. For decades, the state voted Republican in presidential contests until Barack Obama flipped it blue in 2008. Since then, it’s leaned Democratic, but the margins have often been slim and the electorate volatile. As Sabrina Tavernise of The New York Times noted, “In every gubernatorial race here save one since the late 1970s, Virginians have favored the party outside the White House.” This year, with a Democrat in the White House and the GOP still reeling from 2024, that historical pattern adds another layer of intrigue.
For many voters, the choice comes down to which candidate can best address their immediate concerns—affordability, jobs, and the future of reproductive rights—while also representing the state’s values on the national stage. Tanya and David Samples, Charlottesville residents who attended Spanberger’s rally, summed up the stakes: “This is going to be a bellwether state with New Jersey. I am praying that these two Democrats win the governors’ races, so that maybe the Republicans in the House will wake up.”
With Election Day fast approaching, all eyes are on Virginia. The outcome will not only make history but could set the tone for the nation’s political battles in 2026 and beyond.
