In a dramatic turn of events, Virginia’s attorney general race has become a national flashpoint, dominated by controversy, political calculation, and the shifting realities of how Americans vote. At the center stands Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee, whose campaign has been rocked by the recent revelation of violent and disturbing text messages he sent in 2022 about then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert. The fallout from these texts has not only upended polling and betting odds, but also ignited fierce debate over Virginia’s lengthy early voting period and the very nature of accountability in modern elections.
On October 3, 2025, the political landscape in Virginia was jolted when leaked texts revealed that Jones, a former state delegate, had sent a message to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner that read: “Three people, two bullets Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot Gilbert gets two bullets to the head Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time,” according to Newsweek. The message, which compared Gilbert to infamous dictators and called for his execution, was widely condemned across the aisle. Yet, the response from Democratic leadership was measured, even muted.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, in an interview published October 17 by Politico, called Jones’s comments “reckless and unacceptable.” Still, Martin insisted, “I believe that most Virginians have accepted that apology and that they’ll elect Jay Jones as the next attorney general.” He added, “He has taken responsibility for what he said, and he’s apologized to the former speaker and to Virginians.” Martin’s faith in forgiveness, however, appears increasingly at odds with public sentiment and hard electoral data.
Recent polling paints a starkly different picture. A Trafalgar Group poll released in mid-October showed Jones’s support plunging from nearly 49 percent to just 43 percent, while his Republican opponent, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, surged from 45 percent to 48.9 percent, The Hill reported. While some outlets characterize Trafalgar as right-leaning, other indicators echo the trend. Betting markets, often a bellwether for political momentum, have swung sharply against Jones. On October 7, Polymarket gave Jones a 53 percent chance of victory; by October 16, his odds had tumbled to 33 percent, while Miyares’s chances soared to 68 percent, according to Newsweek. Kalshi, another prediction market, had favored Jones all summer—sometimes giving him a 99 percent chance—until the scandal broke in early October. Now, Miyares holds a significant edge.
The impact of these revelations was further amplified during the first and possibly only debate of the attorney general campaign, held October 16 at the University of Richmond. According to FOX 5 and the Associated Press, the debate was overshadowed by repeated references to the leaked texts. Jones, seeking to move past the controversy, tried to pivot by accusing Miyares of being a “yes man” for former President Donald Trump and attacking the incumbent’s record on budget cuts. But the shadow of his own words loomed large, with the debate’s focus rarely straying from the issue of political violence and character.
“I’m ashamed, I’m embarrassed and I’m sorry,” Jones said during the televised debate, addressing the texts directly. The apology, though public and unequivocal, has so far failed to stem the political damage.
The timing of the scandal’s emergence has had outsized consequences due to Virginia’s unique approach to voting. Since 2020, the state has allowed for 45 days of in-person early voting, one of the longest periods in the country, according to Vote.org. Early voting began on September 19, and by October 5—just two days after the texts became public—more than 350,000 ballots had already been cast, the Virginia Public Access Project reported. This means that a significant portion of the electorate voted before knowing about the controversy, raising questions about voter remorse and the fairness of the process.
As The Hill and other outlets have noted, Virginia law stipulates that candidates must withdraw at least 60 days before the election for their names to be removed from the ballot. In Jones’s case, that deadline passed on September 5, nearly a month before the texts surfaced. Even if Jones had chosen to step aside, his name would have remained on ballots already printed and distributed statewide. This logistical reality has influenced the response of Democratic leaders, who, while condemning Jones’s words, have stopped short of calling for his withdrawal from the race. Some observers, as noted in commentary published by The Hill, see this as a calculated move, driven by the constraints of early voting and the risk of splitting the Democratic vote.
The controversy has reignited debate over the merits and pitfalls of extended early voting. Critics argue that a 45-day window not only increases administrative costs—tens of millions of dollars, by some estimates—but also heightens the risk of electoral “buyer’s remorse” and undermines public confidence in election integrity. Some suggest that, should Republicans prevail in November, they might push to roll back or even eliminate early voting, citing models from states like Alabama and New Hampshire, which do not offer in-person early voting, or to shorten the period to something closer to the five to twelve days allowed in Kentucky, New York, or Maryland.
Supporters of early voting, however, point out that it increases access, particularly for voters with inflexible work schedules, mobility challenges, or other barriers to voting on a single day. For many, the expansion of voting options is a necessary modernization of democracy, even if it comes with unforeseen complications in moments of scandal or crisis.
Meanwhile, the attorney general race remains fiercely contested. With Election Day set for November 4, voters are weighing not only the candidates’ positions and records but also the implications of how and when they cast their ballots. The Jones controversy has become a cautionary tale about the intersection of personal conduct, party loyalty, and the evolving mechanics of American elections. As DNC Chair Martin put it, “I believe in free and fair elections, and Virginia voters are the ones that will have to make this decision … Virginians will make a final decision on who they want to be their next attorney general.”
As the campaign enters its final weeks, the outcome remains uncertain, but the debate over early voting, political accountability, and the power of a single text message is likely to echo far beyond Virginia’s borders.
