As the November 4, 2025, elections approach, political tension is reaching a fever pitch in two key states: Virginia and New Jersey. The races there, especially for Virginia’s attorney general, are being closely watched as bellwethers for the national mood just ten months into President Donald Trump’s second term. Yet, what’s dominating headlines and campaign strategy in Virginia isn’t policy or party platforms—it’s a scandal involving Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones and his recently leaked, incendiary text messages.
On October 15, 2025, the political landscape in Virginia was upended when texts sent by Jones in August 2022 surfaced, referencing shooting former House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican from Shenandoah. In the messages, Jones shockingly wrote that if forced to choose between Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot, and Gilbert, “then Gilbert gets two bullets.” The fallout was immediate and fierce, with Jones apologizing for his words but refusing to heed widespread calls to withdraw from the race. According to reporting from Virginia Mercury, the controversy has “reshaped Virginia’s attorney general race” and now threatens to define it.
The scandal’s impact has been seismic, reverberating across all three statewide races in Virginia. Republicans, sensing opportunity, have seized on the episode to boost both incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares and gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears. The Republican Governors Association has poured an additional $1.5 million into attack ads targeting Jones, aiming to capitalize on the Democrats’ vulnerability. As Cook Political Report analyst Matthew Klein described it, the violent rhetoric is “uniquely potent” in a year already marked by political violence, from the assassination attempt on President Trump to the tragic killing of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk and attacks on Democratic lawmakers in Minnesota.
Virginia politicians on both sides have reported receiving death threats in 2025, including Republican Delegates Geary Higgins and Kim Taylor. The climate is tense, with memories still fresh of former Democratic House candidate Susanna Gibson being targeted in 2023 when a SWAT team was dispatched to her home. In the midst of this, Jones has denied a separate allegation from 2020 that he suggested police officers would need to die before they would stop killing others.
The stakes for Thursday’s debate between Jones and Miyares at the University of Richmond couldn’t be higher. Early voting is already underway, and the debate is expected to be the only direct clash between the attorney general candidates before Election Day. With calls for Jones to withdraw coming from both parties—including President Trump and several national Republicans—the event will be a critical moment for both campaigns.
Political analyst Bob Holsworth, speaking to Virginia Mercury, underscored the race’s significance. “This is the most important attorney general race since Massive Resistance,” he said, referencing the 1950s campaign to block desegregation in Virginia. Holsworth noted the attorney general’s influence over hiring legal counsel at public universities, an issue brought to the fore as Governor Glenn Youngkin has stacked university boards with his appointees. The University of Virginia, for instance, has faced controversies over transparency and pressure from the Trump administration to roll back Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion policies.
Immigration policy is another flashpoint. Miyares has aligned himself with Trump, supporting claims that the thousands of undocumented immigrants detained in Virginia were violent criminals—claims that, as of October, remain unsubstantiated, with records showing most detainees have no prior criminal history. Jones, by contrast, has pledged to join multistate coalitions against abortion restrictions and federal overreach, positioning himself as a counterweight to the Trump administration’s policies in Virginia.
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger has found herself caught in the crossfire. Republicans have tried to tie her campaign to Jones’s scandal, with Earle-Sears attacking Spanberger for sharing a ticket with him and repeatedly calling for his withdrawal. During a recent gubernatorial debate, Earle-Sears pressed Spanberger: “Jay Jones advocated the murder of a man, a former speaker, as well as his children. What if he said it about your three children?” Spanberger, for her part, called the messages “abhorrent” and insisted she first learned of them when the story broke, reiterating that she had denounced them at the time. “It is up to voters to make an individual choice based on this information,” she added, signaling her intent to run her own campaign rather than be defined by her running mate’s controversy.
Analyst Matthew Klein observed that the scandal has forced Democrats to make a tough choice: “It’s possible that some Democratic voters could support their party up and down the ticket in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 4 election while still leaving Jones’ box on the ballot blank. Others may ‘hold their nose’ and vote for him anyway.” The race, he concluded, is “very competitive right now,” with Miyares having “a decent chance to win another term, which was not something that I would have said even a couple of weeks ago.”
Meanwhile, the political drama isn’t confined to Virginia. In New Jersey, President Trump is planning a major push to support GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, who is running neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill. According to Axios, Trump will host tele-rallies and his allies are raising millions for a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC. The race is especially significant in a state that went for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, where Trump garnered only 46% of the vote.
Ciattarelli, while touting Trump’s endorsement during the GOP primary, has recently distanced himself from some of the president’s more controversial policies, including Trump’s assertion about Tylenol use during pregnancy. Still, Republican strategists say Ciattarelli will need to energize Trump supporters in key counties like Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic to have a shot at an upset. “We’re appreciative of all the help we’ve received from the president and his team so far, and grateful for any support they provide down the stretch,” Ciattarelli strategist Chris Russell told Axios.
Trump’s team is also considering late involvement in Virginia, particularly in the attorney general race where they are most optimistic about Miyares’s chances. Trump has endorsed Miyares but not Earle-Sears, reflecting the GOP’s internal calculations about where his influence can be most effective. Senior Republicans are less bullish on the Virginia gubernatorial race, with Earle-Sears consistently trailing Spanberger in the polls and some in Trump’s orbit distancing themselves from her campaign.
What’s clear is that these state-level races are being shaped by national currents—Trump’s endorsement, Democratic attempts to contain damage from scandals, and the broader climate of political polarization and violence. The outcome in Virginia, especially in the attorney general contest, could have repercussions far beyond the state, influencing national debates on immigration, abortion, and the limits of federal power. As voters head to the polls, the choices they make will echo across the country, offering an early verdict on the Trump administration’s second term and the direction of American politics.
With the debate stage set and the stakes higher than ever, Virginia’s attorney general race stands as a vivid reminder that, sometimes, the most consequential political battles play out far from Washington—but their impact is felt everywhere.
