As Virginia and New Jersey gear up for their pivotal gubernatorial elections this November, the contests have become a revealing battleground for the nation’s political future. Both states are testing new strategies, with Democrats and Republicans recalibrating their messages in response to shifting voter priorities and the enduring influence of former President Donald Trump. The outcomes could well shape the direction of both parties ahead of the consequential 2026 midterms.
In Virginia, President Trump made waves on September 6, 2025, when he took the opportunity—fresh from signing an executive order restoring the Department of Defense’s original name, the Department of War—to criticize Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger. According to ABC7 News and other outlets, Trump accused Spanberger of supporting “biological males competing in women’s sports and using girls’ bathrooms,” issues that have become flashpoints in the ongoing culture wars. He didn’t mince words about the Democratic Party, declaring, “They’ve gone crazy. Honestly, I think they’re crazy. What’s happened to them, I don’t know. They suffer major Trump Derangement Syndrome—it’s turned out to be actually a disease, but it’s a disease of weak people and stupid people.”
Trump’s remarks echoed a broader Republican critique: that Democrats are out of touch with the concerns of working people and are pushing unpopular social policies. “The Republican Party’s taken in millions of people, and the Democrats have lost millions of people,” Trump said, adding that the GOP now represents the working class, while Democrats “refuse to acknowledge” that “women don’t want men playing in their sports.” He praised Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin and threw his support behind the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, who is running against Spanberger.
Earle-Sears, for her part, has not shied away from aligning with Trump’s agenda, particularly on public safety and cultural issues. Responding directly to Trump’s comments, she accused Spanberger of supporting “girls sharing locker rooms with naked men and turning Virginia into a sanctuary for violent criminals.” In a post on X, Earle-Sears declared, “We must defeat her radical insanity and protect our Commonwealth.”
The culture war rhetoric has been matched by campaign ads. Earle-Sears released an ad charging that Spanberger “is for they/them, not us,” suggesting that her opponent supports policies that endanger children—a theme reminiscent of Trump’s closing message during the previous fall’s campaign. Yet, when pressed for specifics, Spanberger’s campaign has been cautious. As reported by Nick Minock of ABC7 News, when asked whether she supports allowing students to use bathrooms and locker rooms based on gender identity or biological males competing in girls’ sports, Spanberger’s campaign did not answer directly. Instead, a spokesperson emphasized, “Abigail is a mom of three kids in Virginia public schools—the safety of Virginia’s kids is Abigail’s top priority, and she believes that parents have the right to make decisions about what is best for their children.”
Spanberger herself has sought to pivot the conversation toward the economy and public safety, areas where voters’ anxieties are running high. In a recent interview, she stated, “Protecting all people is a priority for me. As governor, I will protect all children.” She also challenged Trump to come to Virginia and “face the tens of thousands of people who he’s responsible for firing,” referencing federal workforce cuts and Medicaid reductions. Her campaign underscores her credentials as a mother and a former law enforcement officer—an effort to reassure moderate and independent voters wary of the more progressive wing of her party.
This centrist tack is not unique to Virginia. In New Jersey, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill is also distancing herself from the party’s left flank, focusing instead on economic concerns as costs rise and job growth stalls under Trump’s presidency. Republicans, meanwhile, are eager to tie Democrats like Sherrill and Spanberger to progressive cultural priorities, including LGBTQ rights and the influence of figures such as New York City’s democratic socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. Sherrill, for her part, recently unveiled a plan to freeze utility rates and made clear she would not weigh in on the New York City mayoral race, saying, “I’m going to let the people of New York decide who their next mayor is going to be.”
On the Republican side, both Earle-Sears and New Jersey’s Jack Ciattarelli are navigating their relationships with Trump carefully. Ciattarelli, once a critic of Trump, has embraced the former president in this year’s campaign, even winning his endorsement. He told reporters, “I’ve been in touch with the White House even today. And what I really appreciate is, what the team has said there on behalf of the president, is we’ll do anything that you think can help the campaign. And I really appreciate it.” Still, he has not specified whether Trump will campaign in person in New Jersey, reflecting the delicate politics at play.
In Virginia, Earle-Sears’s campaign has been similarly nuanced. While openly supporting Trump’s agenda on crime, her team has been cautious about appearing too closely tied to the former president. Yet, a spokesperson told the Associated Press that Earle-Sears “would welcome Trump on the campaign trail in Virginia.” Earle-Sears herself voiced frustration that her opponents paint her as too far-right or overly aligned with Trump, pointing out that Spanberger’s ties to former Democratic President Joe Biden are not scrutinized in the same way.
Polls suggest that Trump’s influence remains potent but polarizing. An AP-NORC poll in August found Trump’s approval rating among U.S. adults at 45%, while just 37% of likely New Jersey voters approved of his job performance in late July, according to Fairleigh Dickinson University. Despite this, Trump’s brand continues to energize the GOP base; in New Jersey, Ciattarelli appeared alongside Garfield’s Democratic mayor, Everett Garnto, who announced he was switching parties to support the Republican candidate. The event highlighted the shifting political dynamics among moderates and independents, especially working-class voters.
For Democrats, the challenge is to maintain unity while appealing to the broad middle. Ezra Levin, co-founder of the activist group Indivisible, said his organization is backing Democratic candidates in both states, but warned, “Then after we win, we hold them accountable, and if necessary, primary them next time.” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin acknowledged the stakes, telling the Associated Press, “Elections, especially midterm elections in ’26, are a referendum on the party that’s in power. This is not a question of how people feel about the Democrats. It’s really a question of how people feel about Donald Trump and the Republicans.”
As the campaign season heats up, both parties are walking a tightrope—balancing their core supporters’ demands with the need to win over the decisive center. The results in Virginia and New Jersey will offer an early glimpse at which strategy resonates in a country still deeply divided over culture, economics, and the legacy of Donald Trump.
