The Vietnamese real estate market in 2025 is presenting a fascinating paradox that’s left both investors and industry experts scratching their heads. Despite a 3% dip in overall industry revenue, profits have soared by a staggering 50%, according to data from VietstockFinance. But here’s the catch: this surge in profitability isn’t coming from the sale of shiny new developments or bustling residential projects. Instead, it’s being fueled by financial maneuvers—selling off inventory at premium prices, transferring shares, revaluing assets, and collecting returns from investments. Core real estate activities, the traditional backbone of the sector, haven’t shown clear signs of recovery just yet.
This shift has led to a critical question about the sustainability of current business models in the industry. As reported by VietstockFinance, many real estate firms are essentially “living lean” off these financial activities, using them as a temporary lifeline while the market for actual real estate products remains sluggish. It’s a clever pivot, but is it a lasting solution?
Investors, for their part, are responding with increasing caution. Rather than pouring money into company stocks with volatile earnings, they’re scrutinizing individual projects more closely than ever. The new mantra is clear: only projects with genuine supply, strategic locations, robust long-term infrastructure, and the potential for sustainable profit—particularly from rentals or commercial exploitation—are worthy of serious consideration. Transparency in both operations and finance is now a non-negotiable requirement for attracting investment capital.
The trend is unmistakable. Investors are turning away from the rollercoaster ride of corporate shares and instead focusing on tangible assets, especially townhouses and shophouses in areas with high development potential. These products are meeting real market needs and, crucially, offer stable cash flow through rental or commercial use. It’s a far cry from the speculative frenzy of years past, when quick flips and short-term gains ruled the day.
But there’s another layer to this story: the regulatory environment is tightening, adding pressure—and clarity—to the market. On September 5, 2025, Circular 14 came into effect, overhauling the way banks calculate risk for lending, as reported by Tinnhanhnhadat.vn. The new regulation, which applies to commercial banks under special supervision, enforces stricter compliance with capital safety ratios, as outlined in the 2024 Credit Institutions Law. While it reduces risk weights for loans in sectors like social housing, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), agriculture, and rural development, it takes a much harder line with commercial real estate.
Circular 14 prioritizes projects that can demonstrate transparent legal status, clear collateral assets, and high value. For a commercial real estate mortgage loan to qualify, the collateral must be an existing property with full legal documentation, and the bank must have the right to handle the asset if needed. The regulation aims to ensure that only the most credible and transparent projects receive funding, effectively holding back the flow of capital to speculative or opaque ventures.
This regulatory shift is already reshaping the market’s landscape. According to Batdongsan.com.vn, the second quarter of 2025 has seen the market settle into a “wait-and-see” mode. Buyers are hesitant, hoping for further price adjustments—especially in areas where prices had previously been driven up beyond their true value. Transactions are now concentrated in projects with clear legal standing, synchronized infrastructure, convenient locations, and reasonable pricing. Products with poor liquidity or unclear legal status are being left by the wayside.
For investors, this new era means the days of “surfing the waves” for quick profits are largely over. Instead, there’s a growing preference for products that serve real living needs, offer stable rental income, or are located in areas with long-term infrastructure potential. The market is shifting away from short-term speculation toward a more sustainable, long-term outlook.
Developers, too, are being forced to adapt. Rather than flooding the market with mass-produced products, they’re focusing on projects that are affordable, have clear legal status, and are progressing on schedule. Diversifying funding sources beyond traditional bank credit has become the new norm, ensuring a steady flow of capital even as the market’s overall momentum remains subdued.
In this challenging environment, one project has emerged as a beacon for both cautious investors and end-users: Green Valley City. Strategically located on the Nguyen Huu Canh axis (DH420), this development connects the heart of Tan Uyen with major industrial zones, commercial centers, and the expanding Ho Chi Minh City. The area is rapidly becoming a new industrial hub, attracting a steady influx of professionals, engineers, and skilled workers—creating a robust and stable demand for both residential and commercial properties.
What sets Green Valley City apart is its commitment to a closed, high-quality living environment. The project boasts 25 premium amenities, from a Mediterranean-style resort pool and a kilometer-long GreenLake to a clubhouse, gym, spa, and even an international kindergarten. With nearly 500 townhouse and shophouse units, the development offers a rare combination of residential comfort and commercial potential. This scarcity of supply in a high-demand area is a key factor in its appeal, promising sustainable profitability for owners through both rental and business opportunities.
The area’s accelerating infrastructure development further boosts its prospects. New arterial roads are linking Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Dong Nai, while a string of new commercial centers and industrial zones are springing up. For investors, this means not just immediate value but also significant potential for long-term growth.
Experts argue that, in today’s market, smart investors should prioritize projects with strategic locations, real products that meet genuine market demand, and long-term infrastructure development—rather than chasing quick profits or speculative financial gains. Green Valley City is often cited as a textbook example of this approach, leveraging its strengths in location and infrastructure to create lasting value for its residents and investors alike.
In a market where financial engineering has temporarily masked deeper structural challenges, the lesson is clear: sustainable success will come to those who focus on real products, real value, and real transparency. As the real estate sector navigates this new reality, projects like Green Valley City offer a glimpse of what the future might hold for Vietnam’s property market—one built on solid ground, not shifting sands.
