Venezuela Faces Isolation As US Tightens Oil Clamp

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro finds himself facing a crisis that’s as much about geopolitics as it is about oil barrels and sanctions. In the waning days of 2025, as the United States ramps up military and economic pressure on his embattled regime, Maduro’s once-reliable allies—Russia and China—are stepping back, offering little more than words of support instead of the concrete aid he desperately needs. Meanwhile, the country’s oil sector, the backbone of its economy and its last major source of foreign currency, is caught in a high-stakes game of cat and mouse on the high seas, with so-called ghost tankers and U.S. seizures complicating an already dire situation.

For years, Venezuela’s socialist-led government could count on Moscow and Beijing for political, financial, and even military backing. That relationship, forged under former President Hugo Chávez and continued by Maduro, has been a lifeline. But as the BBC reports, that support now seems more symbolic than substantial. With U.S. President Donald Trump back in the White House, the stakes have changed. The U.S. has deployed air and naval forces—including a nuclear-powered submarine, spy planes, and 15,000 troops—to the Caribbean. In the past three months, American forces have conducted strikes on boats allegedly smuggling drugs, killing more than 80 people, and seized an oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast. Officially, the Trump administration says these moves target drug trafficking, but many—including Maduro himself—suspect the real goal is regime change.

So, what’s changed for Venezuela’s powerful friends? According to Prof. Fernando Reyes Matta, director of the Centre for China Studies at Andrés Bello University in Chile, “There is no reason today for either Russia or China to go all-in defending Venezuela given their other problems, such as Russia and its war in Ukraine, and China trying to coexist internationally with President Trump.” Russia, bogged down by its ongoing war in Ukraine since 2022 and battered by Western sanctions, is stretched thin—financially and militarily. Moscow’s focus has shifted, leaving less room to prop up distant allies. China, on the other hand, is prioritizing stable ties with Washington, especially after a positive late-October 2025 meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea. Beijing has condemned “external interference” in Venezuela and urged restraint, but has shown no sign it would intervene militarily or provide new loans.

“Russia will [not] risk receiving more sanctions than it already has, [and] China will not risk getting more tariffs imposed on it for defending Maduro,” Prof. Vladimir Rouvinski, director of the Laboratory of Politics and International Relations at Icesi University in Colombia, told the BBC. Even after Maduro reportedly asked both countries for military assistance at the end of October, the responses were tepid. The Kremlin’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said, “We support Venezuela, as it supports us,” but stopped short of promising material aid. Putin did call Maduro to affirm support after the U.S. seized an oil tanker, but again, no concrete help followed.

Meanwhile, the July 2024 Venezuelan presidential election—meant to be a democratic turning point—was marred by serious allegations of fraud. The National Electoral Council, dominated by government loyalists, declared Maduro the winner without providing detailed results. The opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, released records suggesting opposition candidate Edmundo González actually won. “This time, Maduro is completely alone,” Prof. Rouvinski said, adding, “Russia and China may continue criticising US intervention, but they are not willing to go any further. The support he had in the past is no longer there in real terms, beyond certain rhetorical statements.”

Yet, for all the diplomatic drama, the real action is playing out on the water. According to Bloomberg, two so-called ghost supertankers—operating under the fake names Crag and Galaxy 3—were spotted loading nearly four million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey 16 crude oil at the government-controlled port of Jose in mid-December 2025. These ships, their true identities hidden by rags covering their names, are bound for Asia, attempting to skirt U.S. sanctions by disguising the oil’s origins. Satellite imagery confirmed the presence of these vessels, along with a third ship, the Aframax Nave Neutrino, chartered by Chevron.

Venezuela’s national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), has few options left for getting oil to market. Typically, it sends crude to China at steep discounts, but storage is limited and cash is desperately needed. Chevron, the only U.S. oil major allowed to operate in Venezuela under a renewed license, can load and transport its share of oil to the U.S. but must compensate PDVSA with oil rather than cash—a lifeline, but a limited one. As a Chevron spokesperson told Bloomberg, its operations “continue in full compliance with laws and regulations applicable to its business, as well as the sanctions frameworks provided for by the US government.”

The U.S. has made it clear it’s willing to go further. Just two days before December 12, 2025, American forces seized a supertanker named Skipper, which was transporting Venezuelan crude. This was part of a broader pressure campaign aimed at choking off Maduro’s oil revenue and forcing him from power. The administration has also threatened possible attacks on Venezuelan soil. Maduro, for his part, has called the U.S. seizure of the tanker “piracy” and vowed to protect Venezuela’s natural resources.

Despite these dramatic moves, the global oil market has barely flinched. The International Energy Agency estimates a record oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day, thanks to rising production in the U.S. and Guyana. While roughly 30% of Venezuela’s oil exports—about 300,000 barrels a day—could be disrupted by U.S. actions, the world’s glut of oil has kept prices stable. For Venezuela, though, every lost barrel is a blow to a battered economy.

Maduro’s regime is clearly feeling the squeeze. In December 2025, Venezuela managed to load almost 880,000 barrels of crude oil per day, up from 586,000 barrels per day the previous month. But as U.S. pressure mounts and traditional allies fade into the background, the future looks bleak. Prof. Reyes Matta summed it up: “Neither of the two countries is willing to support a regime that has so little internal backing. Moreover, both Russia and China know that the last presidential election had very evident fraudulent characteristics.”

With no real rescue from Moscow or Beijing in sight, and with the U.S. tightening its grip on Venezuela’s oil exports, Maduro’s days as president may be numbered. The world is watching to see whether Venezuela’s leader can survive this perfect storm—or if, as many experts believe, his time is finally running out.