A fresh round of political maneuvering is already underway in New Hampshire, as the first major poll of the 2028 presidential race offers a revealing snapshot of where the nation’s political winds might be blowing. Conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center on November 18 and 19, 2025, the poll surveyed 2,112 registered voters across the state, providing early insight into which candidates are capturing the imagination—and support—of both Republican and Democratic voters. The results have set political circles abuzz, and not just because of the numbers themselves, but also due to the personalities and controversies swirling around the frontrunners.
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance is the undisputed leader, with a commanding 57% of GOP respondents indicating they would back him if he decides to run for the White House in 2028. According to the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, this puts Vance miles ahead of his nearest competitors, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 9%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 7%, and Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Tulsi Gabbard each tied at 4%. Bringing up the rear are U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, each with a mere 1% of the vote.
Neil Levesque of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, speaking to WMUR, captured the sentiment succinctly: "Vance definitely has a commanding lead. He's getting a lot of earned media from being with the president so much, and certainly, Republican voters are tuned in to what he's doing, and they support him." The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, but even factoring that in, Vance’s advantage is nothing short of formidable.
So, what’s driving this surge of support for Vance? Political analysts point to his high-profile role as vice president and his frequent appearances alongside President Trump during the previous campaign. Even though Vance made only a single campaign stop in New Hampshire last year, his visibility and alignment with the Trump administration’s policies seem to have solidified his standing among the state’s Republican base. As Levesque observed, "Republican voters are tuned in to what he's doing, and they support him."
Meanwhile, the Democratic field is shaping up to be a much closer contest. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently leading with 28% support among Democratic respondents, but California Governor Gavin Newsom is hot on his heels at 24%. "Really, the two of them are almost tied for their interest," Levesque noted, underscoring just how tight the race is shaping up to be.
The rest of the Democratic hopefuls are trailing by a significant margin. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has garnered 6% support, while Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and U.S. Senator Cory Booker each sit at 4%. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is at 3%, with U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer each at 2%. Rounding out the list are U.S. Senator Chris Murphy and Maryland Governor Wes Moore, both at 1%.
Buttigieg’s lead, according to WMUR, can be traced back to the extensive campaigning he did in New Hampshire during the 2019 and 2020 election cycles. That early groundwork appears to be paying dividends now, as Granite State Democrats recall his presence and message. Newsom, for his part, has also made recent visits to the state, signaling that he’s taking the New Hampshire primary—and its outsized influence—seriously.
For all the drama and logistical headaches that plagued the 2024 New Hampshire primary, analysts are optimistic about the state’s pivotal role in the upcoming cycle. Levesque told WMUR, "I think that the New Hampshire primary is alive and well." The state’s first-in-the-nation status ensures that its voters will continue to shape the national conversation, and candidates from both parties are already making their presence felt.
Yet, it’s not just the polling numbers that have tongues wagging. Vice President Vance found himself at the center of an unexpected controversy in late October 2025, when a viral moment at a Turning Point USA campaign event thrust him into the social media spotlight. Erika Kirk, the new CEO of Turning Point USA and widow of the group’s late founder Charlie Kirk, embraced Vance on stage—an embrace that quickly became fodder for online speculation and criticism.
Some observers took to social media to analyze the body language and question the appropriateness of the hug, particularly the moment when Kirk placed her hand on the back of Vance’s head. The embrace, which occurred during a Turning Point USA event in October 2025, was soon dissected and debated across various platforms. But Kirk, speaking on Megyn Kelly’s live show in Glendale, Arizona, over the weekend, was quick to address the backlash. She explained, “The hug was just my love language.”
Kirk went further, expressing strong support for Vance’s possible 2028 presidential run. As reported by Turning Point USA, she said the organization would back his candidacy, highlighting similarities between Vance and her late husband Charlie Kirk. The show of support from Turning Point USA, a group with considerable influence among young conservative voters, could prove pivotal for Vance as he seeks to broaden his coalition ahead of a potential campaign.
The episode underscores the scrutiny that candidates—and those associated with them—face in the age of viral media. What might have been a fleeting, personal gesture instead became a trending topic, with everyone from political pundits to armchair analysts weighing in. Kirk’s response, downplaying the incident as a reflection of her personal style, seems to have quelled some of the immediate uproar, but it also highlights the challenges of navigating public perception in a hyper-connected era.
Back on the Democratic side, the close contest between Buttigieg and Newsom is likely to intensify as the months progress. Both have national profiles and have demonstrated an ability to connect with voters beyond their home states. Buttigieg’s early campaigning in New Hampshire has given him a slight edge, but Newsom’s recent visits and high-profile leadership in California ensure he remains a formidable contender.
For voters in New Hampshire, the early poll is both a snapshot and a starting gun. With the primary season still months away, there’s ample time for shifts in momentum, surprise entrants, and the inevitable ups and downs of campaign politics. The poll’s margin of error—plus or minus 2.1 percentage points—means that nothing is set in stone. But for now, Vance and Buttigieg have staked out early leads, setting the stage for what promises to be a lively and unpredictable 2028 race.
As the political world turns its gaze to New Hampshire, one thing is clear: the road to the White House in 2028 has already begun, and every handshake, campaign stop, and yes, even hug, will be scrutinized for what it might mean in the months ahead.
