As tensions mount in the Caribbean and the world’s attention once again turns to Venezuela, the fate of President Nicolás Maduro hangs in the balance. Over the past weeks, a dramatic escalation in U.S. military presence and diplomatic maneuvering has placed unprecedented pressure on the embattled Venezuelan leader, raising hopes among some for a peaceful transition of power, while others warn of the dangers that could lurk in the vacuum left behind.
The catalyst for this latest standoff came on November 16, 2025, when President Trump hinted at the possibility of talks with Maduro regarding his negotiated departure from power. As reported by Nexstar Media, the Trump administration’s overture was anything but random; it came after a series of hard-hitting measures, including the threat—announced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—that the Maduro-led Cartel of the Suns could soon be designated a foreign terrorist organization. The deadline for this designation is set for November 24, 2025, a move that would further isolate Maduro’s regime and increase international scrutiny.
But the carrot-and-stick approach didn’t stop at diplomatic threats. In a show of force not seen since Operation Just Cause ousted Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega in 1990, the U.S. has deployed more than 15,000 troops to the Caribbean Sea. According to Nexstar Media, this formidable contingent is equipped with F-35 jets, nuclear submarines, guided missile cruisers, amphibious ships, and the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group—an unmistakable signal of Washington’s resolve.
The military buildup is part of a broader anti-drug campaign. Last week, the U.S. announced Operation Southern Spear, aiming to take anti-narcotics actions in the Caribbean to a new level. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on social media, “President Trump ordered action — and the Department of War is delivering. The effort defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people. The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood — and we will protect it.”
With the USS Gerald Ford now sailing in Caribbean waters and U.S. forces striking drug-carrying boats off the Venezuelan coast, the pressure on Caracas is palpable. As Bloomberg News and other outlets have noted, this is the largest deployment in the region in decades, and it comes at a moment when Maduro’s regime appears more vulnerable than ever.
Faced with overwhelming military might, Maduro’s options are narrowing. As Reuters has highlighted, a full-scale conventional war is out of the question for the Venezuelan leader. Instead, he may resort to guerrilla tactics, deploying small military units at more than 280 locations to carry out sabotage and other acts of resistance. The aim: to make Venezuela ungovernable for any foreign force that dares intervene.
Inside Venezuela, the opposition is mobilizing. María Corina Machado, this year’s Nobel Prize laureate and a prominent opposition leader, has been working tirelessly to rally international support for regime change. Constantly at risk of detention, Machado has been lobbying U.S. policymakers and granting interviews to make her case. In an October interview with Bloomberg News, she declared, “We are ready to take over government.” Her confidence is not unfounded; her opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, won two-thirds of the vote in the July 2024 presidential election, only to be forced into exile after Maduro claimed victory.
Yet, as Los Angeles Times warned in a recent analysis, regime change is fraught with peril. The article draws sobering parallels with Iraq after 2003 and Libya after 2011, where the removal of autocratic leaders led not to democracy, but to insurgency, civil war, and persistent instability. The lesson? Toppling a dictator is only the beginning—what comes next is often unpredictable and dangerous.
Venezuela, unlike Iraq or Libya, does have a tradition of democratic governance and lacks the deep sectarian divisions that have plagued Middle Eastern states. However, even this offers only limited reassurance. For a successful transition, the Venezuelan army would need to either stand aside, arrest Maduro and his associates, or switch allegiance to the new authorities. But as Los Angeles Times points out, this is a tall order. The military leadership is deeply entwined with the Maduro regime, implicated in illegal activities and human rights abuses, and unlikely to give up power without a fight.
The risks of a power vacuum are real. Should Maduro’s regime collapse completely, Venezuela could descend into chaos, with former government elements, drug trafficking organizations, and armed groups like the Colombian National Liberation Army vying for control. Any new government would face the daunting challenge of managing these threats while simultaneously restructuring the economy and rebuilding battered institutions. The Trump administration, for all its hopes of a quick fix, could find itself grappling with an even more volatile situation—one that fuels drug trafficking and migration, the very problems it seeks to solve.
Meanwhile, Maduro is not sitting idle. According to Nexstar Media, he has attempted to negotiate his way out by offering political prisoners, migrants, oil, gold, and promises to sever ties with Russia, China, and Iran. Yet, the only negotiation currently on the table is his peaceful departure and a transition to authorities legitimately elected in July 2024. For the first time in 26 years of Chavismo rule, Maduro is negotiating from a position of weakness, under real and immediate pressure from far more than sanctions alone.
The stakes extend beyond Venezuela’s borders. As Nexstar Media notes, Maduro’s removal could bring peace and prosperity not only to Venezuela but also to neighboring countries. It would mean liberation from the threat of drug trafficking groups and terrorists linked to Iran and Hezbollah, and would deliver a decisive blow to the authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua, both of which have profited from Venezuela’s resources.
Still, not everyone is convinced that a post-Maduro Venezuela will be a Western-style democracy. As the Los Angeles Times cautions, “Democracy after Maduro is possible but is hardly the only possible result — and it’s certainly not the most likely.” The U.S. administration, mindful of painful lessons from the past, is weighing its options carefully. Trump has been presented with a range of possible actions but, as of November 18, has not made his decision public.
For now, the world watches and waits. The next steps—whether negotiation, escalation, or a combination of both—will shape not only Venezuela’s future but also the stability of the region and the credibility of U.S. policy in Latin America. As the pieces move on this high-stakes chessboard, one thing is clear: the endgame for Nicolás Maduro is fast approaching, and its outcome will reverberate far beyond Caracas.
