U.S. crude oil production surged to a new record in June 2025, reaching 13.58 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Petroleum Supply Monthly. This milestone, reported by Oilprice.com and echoed by Oil Daily, marks a significant 133,000-barrel increase over May’s output and stands 2.5 percent higher than the same month last year. The robust growth underscores the ongoing transformation in the U.S. energy landscape, even as global oil markets face mounting uncertainty.
But here’s where things get interesting: the EIA’s monthly tally, which relies on operator surveys and pipeline data, revealed a sharp disconnect from the agency’s own weekly estimates. For June, weekly reports had pegged production at an average of 13.43 million barrels per day—about 150,000 barrels less than what actually flowed from U.S. fields. As traders and analysts scrambled to adjust their models, the revision served as a stark reminder that those quick Thursday numbers, while useful, aren’t set in stone. As Oilprice.com put it, “the Thursday weekly number is useful, but it’s not gospel.”
This isn’t the first time such a discrepancy has cropped up. Earlier in the year, weekly estimates often ran hotter than the final monthly reconciliations. But for June, the tables turned, and the monthly data showed output running stronger than expected—a twist that matters a great deal when oil markets are already jittery about oversupply.
Digging into the state-level numbers, New Mexico emerged as a standout, adding 40,000 barrels per day month on month to reach 2.24 million barrels per day. The Gulf of Mexico also chipped in, boosting its contribution by 67,000 barrels per day. Texas, the nation’s oil powerhouse, held steady at 5.72 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, California continued a long slide, with production down 14 percent year on year to just 259,000 barrels per day. For the Golden State, the story isn’t just about falling output—refining capacity is also under pressure, with major companies shutting down refineries due to changing policies and market dynamics, as reported by Oil Daily.
California’s refining woes are compounded by regulatory uncertainty. According to Oil Daily, state regulators are expected to delay enforcing a cap on refinery profits for five years—a measure originally introduced under Senate Bill X1-2 to curb gasoline price spikes. Governor Newsom’s 2022 accusations against refiners may have set the stage, but the reality is that policy shifts and market changes are prompting companies to shutter operations, further reducing the state’s ability to process crude into gasoline and other fuels.
These regional shifts come at a time when global oil markets are anything but calm. On August 29, 2025, oil prices dipped amid fears of reduced U.S. demand, though prices remained on track for a second straight weekly gain of about 1 percent, with ICE Brent crude trading just above $68 per barrel, according to Oilprice.com. The drop was driven by expectations that U.S. consumption might soften, but the broader trend has been shaped by persistent geopolitical tensions. The unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing U.S.-India trade disputes have kept market participants on edge, with volatility the order of the day.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for September 7, 2025. The alliance is set to assess market conditions and review its production cut strategy—a move that could have significant implications for prices and supply balances heading into the fall. In anticipation of softer demand in Asia, Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning to reduce its official selling prices for crude shipped to the region in October by $0.50 to $0.70 per barrel, reflecting both easing Dubai time spreads and the seasonal downturn as refiners begin maintenance.
Supply disruptions have added yet another layer of complexity. Russia’s crude exports via the Baltic port of Ust-Luga are expected to be halved, dropping to around 350,000 barrels per day, after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged the Unecha pumping station, as detailed in Oilprice.com’s market analysis. Meanwhile, the closure process for the 140,000-barrels-per-day Los Angeles refinery owned by Phillips 66 is set to begin—possibly ahead of its planned Q4 2025 schedule—removing a significant source of fuel supply from the California market and intensifying concerns about regional shortages.
Europe, for its part, is pushing for secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil in a bid to further restrict Moscow’s revenue streams. This move, if enacted, could alter global trade flows and introduce new wrinkles for refiners and traders worldwide. At the same time, a force majeure at Mexico’s new Dos Bocas refinery and the collapse of a major China-Taliban oil deal—complete with mutual accusations of contract breaches—highlight the fragility of new supply sources and the unpredictable nature of international energy partnerships.
Back in the U.S., the story of rising crude production is as much about efficiency as it is about raw output. Despite a shrinking rig count, producers have managed to boost volumes through gains in efficiency and the completion of previously drilled but uncompleted wells. This means that even as the number of rigs in operation declines, operators are finding ways to squeeze more oil from existing assets—a testament to the industry’s adaptability.
But don’t be fooled into thinking the data always tells a simple story. The divergence between weekly and monthly EIA figures is a recurring theme, and analysts caution that revisions are par for the course. As Oilprice.com notes, “the EIA’s weekly numbers are meant to be fast indicators, not exact measures, and June is a reminder that the final monthly data often tells a different story.” For market watchers, this means staying nimble and keeping a close eye on both sets of figures, especially when surprises can move prices and reshape expectations overnight.
On a broader scale, the convergence of shifting demand expectations, geopolitical supply risks, and evolving refinery capacity is creating a volatile price environment. Data from the IndexBox platform, as reported by Oilprice.com, suggests that these developments are likely to keep market participants on edge in the weeks ahead. The interplay of domestic production records, international supply disruptions, and policy shifts in key regions like California and Europe means the oil market’s next chapter is anything but predictable.
As the industry looks toward the fall, the only certainty is uncertainty. From record-setting U.S. output to refinery closures and global supply shocks, the world’s energy system is being tested on multiple fronts. For producers, traders, and consumers alike, staying informed—and flexible—has never been more important.
