Western capitals have been abuzz in recent days as warnings about Russia’s surging missile production and the prospects for a controversial US-led peace plan for Ukraine have collided, creating a sense of urgency and unease across Europe. According to multiple reports from The New York Times and France 24, American officials are sounding the alarm: Moscow is now producing more missiles than it is launching, a marked shift from previous years when every new missile seemed destined for Ukraine’s battered cities. This stockpiling, US Army Secretary Daniel P. Driscoll told a gathering of Western diplomats in Kyiv on November 21, 2025, could transform not only the battlefield in Ukraine but also the wider security landscape for Europe as a whole.
Driscoll’s blunt assessment, delivered in the Ukrainian capital and recounted by two Western officials to The New York Times, was nothing short of a wake-up call. "Moscow is now producing more missiles than it is launching," he warned, highlighting a growing reserve of long-range weaponry that could be deployed in devastating waves. The implication, as those present understood, was clear: a settlement is needed quickly, before this missile threat delivers a knockout blow to Ukraine or even spills over its borders.
Western diplomats at the Kyiv meeting described the situation as "alarming," a sentiment echoed in subsequent reports. Russian missile reserves, analysts warn, could soon be large enough to enable massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, exhaust Ukrainian air defenses, and even pose a direct threat to other European nations. The message from Driscoll, as reported by The New York Times, resonated deeply with the assembled diplomats, many of whom requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the talks.
This sense of urgency has lent new momentum to peace efforts that, until recently, seemed bogged down by irreconcilable differences. The United States, under the Trump administration, has put forward a peace plan for Ukraine that initially consisted of 28 points. Among its most contentious provisions was the recognition of Crimea, as well as the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as de facto Russian territories—a bitter pill for Kyiv and its European allies.
President Trump set a deadline of November 27 for approving the plan. But after the proposal was leaked to the media, a flurry of negotiations ensued. High-level talks involving Ukraine, the United States, and European partners were held in Geneva on November 23, 2025. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerged from the discussions claiming "tremendous progress" had been made, and signaled that the original deadline could be stretched to allow further negotiations. According to sources cited by the Financial Times, the American plan was trimmed from 28 points to 19, though the specifics of what was dropped remain unclear.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the revised plan retained key provisions, including the release of civilians and prisoners of war on an "all for all" basis and the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. He also noted that Ukraine’s position had been taken into account in the shortened draft. Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsia, a member of the Ukrainian delegation, said the US agreed not to cap the size of Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000—a significant concession. Furthermore, the clause on amnesty for potential war criminals was reworked to address the concerns of those who suffered during the conflict.
Still, the thorniest issues—territorial questions and the future relationship between the US, NATO, and Russia—were left unresolved. These, officials said, would be discussed directly between Presidents Zelensky and Trump in the coming weeks. For now, the fate of Crimea and the eastern regions remains a diplomatic minefield, with both sides digging in their heels.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has weighed in on the evolving peace framework. Speaking to Russian journalists after the Collective Security Treaty Organisation summit in Bishkek on November 27, Putin said the US-Ukraine draft discussed in Geneva could serve as the basis for a future peace deal. He acknowledged that Washington had "taken Russia’s positions into account," but insisted that key points still required negotiation. Kremlin officials confirmed that US special envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to visit Moscow next week, as efforts to find consensus accelerate.
Witkoff’s role has attracted scrutiny after reports surfaced that he advised a top aide to Putin on how to pitch a Ukraine deal to President Trump. This behind-the-scenes maneuvering has raised eyebrows in European capitals, where many fear that Washington’s eagerness for a settlement could come at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty and the continent’s broader security interests.
Adding to the sense of urgency, Russian agencies reported that air defenses shot down 118 Ukrainian drones overnight on November 27, including 52 over the border region of Belgorod. The scale of the drone attacks, and the robust Russian response, underscored the war’s continued intensity even as diplomats race to hammer out a peace deal.
European countries are responding to the shifting security landscape in their own ways. Poland, for example, has chosen Sweden to build new submarines to boost its navy’s capabilities—an explicit response to the war in Ukraine and fears of Russian threats, according to Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Makysz. This move reflects growing anxiety among NATO allies about the potential for the conflict to spill beyond Ukraine’s borders if a durable settlement is not reached soon.
On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund announced on November 27 that it had reached a staff-level agreement on a new four-year, $8.2 billion program for Ukraine. The package is designed to help Kyiv cope with mounting wartime fiscal pressures, as the country’s economy continues to reel from the costs of prolonged conflict.
Despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, significant skepticism remains among Western officials. As The New York Times noted, the United States has traditionally criticized Russia for stockpiling weapons, not used such buildups as leverage to push for peace deals that could be seen as unfavorable to the victims of aggression. The current approach, which some see as accommodating Moscow’s demands, has sparked concern that Ukraine may be pressured into accepting terms that undermine its territorial integrity and long-term security.
For now, the fate of Ukraine—and the security of Europe—hangs in the balance. The coming weeks will test whether diplomacy can deliver a settlement that addresses the realities on the ground while preserving the principles at stake. All eyes are on Geneva, Moscow, and Washington as negotiators work to bridge the chasm between war and peace—a task as urgent as it is fraught with peril.
