In the predawn hours of October 4, 2025, the sky above the Kinef oil refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast, erupted in fiery explosions. Videos and photos, rapidly shared on Ukrainian Telegram channels Exilenova+ and Supernova+, captured the chaos: flames licking the night, smoke billowing from the sprawling industrial site, and the unmistakable sound of drones overhead. The refinery, located some 800 kilometers from Ukraine-controlled territory, had just become the latest target in a rapidly escalating campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia.
According to Astra, a Russian Telegram channel, and statements from Kirishi Governor Drozdenko, the attack set off a fire in the industrial zone. Fire services rushed to contain the blaze, eventually extinguishing it later that day. Governor Drozdenko reported that air defenses destroyed seven drones over Kirishi during the incident, and environmental monitoring by Rospotrebnadzor found no dangerous pollution levels in the aftermath. Still, the message was clear: Ukraine’s drones could reach—and strike—far beyond the front lines.
Just a day earlier, on October 3, another major Russian oil facility found itself under attack. The Orsknefteorgsintez refinery in Orenburg Oblast, a linchpin of the southern Urals’ energy infrastructure, was hit by Ukrainian drones, according to a source in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) cited by the Kyiv Independent. The facility, founded in 1935 and boasting an annual capacity of 6.6 million tons of crude oil, is the only refinery in Orenburg Oblast and plays a vital role in Russia’s domestic energy network. Regional Governor Evgeny Solntsev confirmed the drone strike but insisted that operations continued uninterrupted, with emergency services working on site. However, the SBU source told the Kyiv Independent that an evacuation was announced at the facility, underscoring the seriousness of the attack.
These incidents are not isolated. According to BBC Verify and the Financial Times, Ukrainian drones have hit 21 Russian oil refineries since January 2025—a staggering 48% increase over all of 2024. Since August alone, 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries have been targeted, resulting in nearly 40% of the country’s refining capacity being knocked offline. The impact ripples far beyond the refineries themselves. Russian diesel exports have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2020, and civilians are feeling the pinch at the pump, with reports of higher gas prices and long lines at stations across various regions.
Why are these attacks so effective? As NPR’s Greg Myre explained, Ukraine’s drones have grown increasingly sophisticated, capable of reaching hundreds of miles into Russian territory. The strikes typically occur at night, maximizing the element of surprise and minimizing the risk to operators. Social media has been flooded with dramatic footage: vast fireballs illuminating the sky, smoke columns visible for miles, and the unmistakable chaos of emergency response teams scrambling to contain the damage.
Russia, for its part, is struggling to defend its vast network of energy infrastructure. “Russia’s the largest country in the world,” Myre noted on NPR, “and that means massive resources—oil, gas, and minerals—but it also means it’s very hard to defend everywhere.” Many refineries, once considered out of range or too deep inside Russian territory to be threatened, now find themselves vulnerable. The result? Facilities previously left with minimal protection are now prime targets, and Russia’s air defenses, stretched thin, can’t cover every possible approach.
The economic consequences are mounting. According to Andrew Weiss at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, while Russia produces more diesel than its military needs—exporting the surplus—the civilian economy is starting to feel the strain. “The Russian military runs on diesel. Russia produces twice as much diesel annually as it needs and exports the rest,” Weiss told NPR. But with exports dropping and refineries offline, those surpluses are dwindling. Economic growth in Russia for 2025 is expected to hover around just 1%, a clear sign of the pressure these attacks are exerting on the broader economy.
Ukrainian officials have been open about their aims. “SBU continues to cause significant harm to the Russian economy by targeting facilities in the Russian oil and gas industry,” the SBU source told the Kyiv Independent. “The reduction in oil dollar revenues to the budget directly affects the aggressor’s ability to continue the war against Ukraine.” The logic is straightforward: by disrupting oil refining and export capacity, Ukraine hopes to sap Russia’s war chest and undermine its ability to sustain its military operations.
The international response has been cautious but notable. The Trump administration, according to NPR and the Wall Street Journal, is reportedly considering Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles, which would dramatically extend Ukraine’s strike capabilities. There are also reports of increased intelligence sharing to help Ukraine pinpoint Russian energy sites. However, as Andrew Weiss cautioned, “simply putting on Twitter that you’re possibly going to help Ukraine in various ways is not the same as actually helping Ukraine.” So far, no firm decisions on advanced missile transfers have been announced, and U.S. officials remain tight-lipped about the extent of intelligence cooperation.
Meanwhile, Russian leaders have issued stern warnings. President Vladimir Putin, in comments reported by NPR, said that the potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine could lead to a “whole new level of escalation.” The specter of direct U.S. involvement—or the provision of even more advanced weaponry—hangs over the conflict, raising the stakes for both sides.
For ordinary Russians, the impact is already being felt. In addition to the dramatic images of burning refineries, gas stations in several regions have seen long lines and rising prices. While the Russian military’s fuel supplies remain robust for now, the civilian economy is increasingly exposed to the fallout from these strikes. The attacks have also forced a rethinking of security priorities, as facilities once considered safe from harm are now on the front lines of a new kind of warfare—one waged by drones, information, and economic disruption as much as by tanks and artillery.
As the Ukrainian drone campaign continues, both the scale and sophistication of the strikes appear to be growing. With nearly half of Russia’s refineries having come under attack in 2025, and the economic consequences mounting, the war’s front lines are no longer confined to the Donbas or the steppes of southern Ukraine. The battle has extended deep into the Russian heartland, with oil refineries—critical to both the economy and the war effort—now squarely in the crosshairs.
What comes next is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the era of long-range drone warfare has arrived, and its effects are being felt far beyond the battlefield.
