In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, both nations have intensified their attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, leading to significant disruptions on both sides of the border. Over the past week, Ukrainian long-range drones struck two major Russian refineries—Ilsk in Krasnodar Krai and Ryazan—on consecutive nights, while Russian missile and drone attacks left hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in western regions without power, according to multiple official sources and reporting from Oilprice.com.
The energy war has become a defining feature of the conflict, with each side attempting to undermine the other’s military capabilities and civilian morale by targeting critical fuel and electricity supplies. As of November 20, 2025, the stakes have rarely felt higher, with winter approaching and no clear end to hostilities in sight.
The first of the latest Ukrainian strikes came on November 19, when drones targeted the Ilsk refinery—a facility that, according to Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, processes more than 6 million tonnes of crude oil annually and serves as a key supplier for southern Russia. Just a day later, Ukrainian drones hit the Ryazan refinery, which handled about 13 million tonnes of crude in 2024, making it one of Russia’s highest-output plants. Both refineries have been struck multiple times in recent months, reflecting a sustained campaign by Ukrainian forces to degrade Russia’s energy infrastructure.
“These strikes are part of a broader campaign targeting around 40 refineries across Russia,” Brovdi explained, as cited by Oilprice.com. “Nearly two dozen have suffered some level of damage over the past year, ranging from minor disruptions to extended shutdowns.” The impact has been tangible: reduced output has already caused fuel shortages in some Russian regions, and transport costs have risen as supplies must be rerouted from plants farther away from the front lines.
Ukraine’s strategy is clear. By degrading Russia’s ability to refine and distribute fuel, Kyiv hopes to erode the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain its military campaign. The logic is straightforward—less fuel means less mobility for Russia’s armed forces, as well as a hit to the export revenues that help fund Moscow’s war effort. Ukrainian officials argue that this sustained pressure will eventually push the Kremlin toward a diplomatic solution, though there is little sign of that happening soon.
Meanwhile, Russia has not been idle. In recent weeks, Moscow has stepped up its own attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, focusing on power and gas supplies in western Ukraine. The consequences have been severe: by November 20, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were left without power, according to a representative from Ukraine’s national nuclear energy company, Energoatom, who spoke to Reuters. The damage wasn’t limited to civilian power grids—transmission lines critical to the operation of nuclear plants were also hit, forcing Ukraine’s nuclear facilities, which generate more than half of the country’s electricity, to curb production.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), highlighted the seriousness of the situation earlier this week. He noted that two Ukrainian nuclear power plants have been operating at reduced capacity for the past ten days after a military attack damaged an electrical substation “critical for nuclear safety and security.” The risk is not just about blackouts—reduced nuclear output places additional strain on Ukraine’s already battered energy sector, raising concerns about the country’s ability to keep the lights on as winter sets in.
The tit-for-tat attacks have created a vicious cycle, with each side trying to outmaneuver the other. According to Oilprice.com, “Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks, with Russia targeting Ukrainian power and gas supply and Ukraine hitting Russian refineries, oil depots, and export facilities.” The result is a kind of energy stalemate, in which both militaries—and civilian populations—are forced to adapt to rolling shortages and uncertainty.
To bolster its energy security for the coming winter, Ukraine has moved quickly to secure alternative sources of fuel. The government has arranged for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to be imported via Greece and Lithuania, aiming to offset the loss of domestic generation and Russian imports. While this provides some relief, the logistics of rerouting energy supplies across Europe are complex and costly, and there are no guarantees that imports will be sufficient if Russian attacks continue.
Amid the escalating energy war, diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have taken on renewed urgency. On November 20, U.S. Pentagon officials visited Kyiv for high-level meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, focusing on “efforts to end the war,” according to Oilprice.com. Reports have emerged of a draft peace plan, said to be devised by U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, which would involve Ukraine making territorial concessions. However, neither the U.S. nor Russia has confirmed or denied the existence of such a plan, and details remain murky.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio weighed in on social media, writing, “Ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas. And achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions. That is why we are and will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict.” Rubio’s comments underscore the challenge facing diplomats: finding common ground in a conflict where both sides have suffered deeply and neither is eager to compromise.
The human cost of the energy war is mounting. In Russia, fuel shortages and rising transport costs are beginning to bite, particularly in regions far from the main supply hubs. In Ukraine, blackouts and reduced nuclear output threaten to leave millions in the dark during the coldest months of the year. The damage to infrastructure on both sides will take years to repair, even if a ceasefire is reached tomorrow.
As the war grinds on, the battle for energy supremacy has become a key front—one that could shape the outcome of the conflict as much as any tank or missile. For now, both sides remain locked in a dangerous game of escalation, with civilians caught in the crossfire and no easy answers in sight.
