On the morning of November 16, 2025, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine entered a new, volatile phase, marked by a dramatic escalation in cross-border strikes, high-profile casualties, and tense diplomatic maneuvering. The latest developments underscore the evolving nature of the war, with both sides targeting each other’s critical infrastructure and civilians increasingly caught in the crossfire.
Ukraine’s military announced it had struck Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery, a facility located about 200 kilometers southeast of Moscow, as part of what officials described as “efforts to reduce the enemy’s ability to launch missile and bomb strikes.” According to Al Jazeera, the attack caused multiple explosions and a large fire at the site. The Ryazan governor, Pavel Malkov, acknowledged the incident, stating, “Falling debris caused a fire on the premises of one enterprise,” after a wave of 25 Ukrainian drones targeted the region. While Russian officials often downplay the success of such attacks, the visible damage at Ryazan marked a significant blow to Russian energy infrastructure.
This strike was not an isolated incident. Just a day prior, Ukrainian forces targeted one of Russia’s largest oil export facilities in the port city of Novorossiysk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that “valuable” infrastructure at the port and oil terminal was damaged, including a launcher from Russia’s S400 air defense system. The operation, which used domestically produced Neptune cruise missiles and various types of strike UAVs, ignited a major fire that continued to burn into the next day. The Russian governor of Krasnodar Krai, Veniamin Kondratiev, confirmed the attack, noting at least four people were wounded and several residential buildings were damaged. A state of emergency was declared in Novorossiysk, and Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have intercepted 216 Ukrainian drones overnight.
These attacks highlight Ukraine’s increasing reliance on long-range weapons and drone technology to strike deep inside Russian territory. As Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated this week, Ukraine is “increasing the effectiveness” of its use of domestic long-range weapons, including Neptune and Flamingo missiles, as well as jet drones, according to CNN. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy justified the strikes as “our entirely justified response to the ongoing Russian terror.”
The Russian response was swift and deadly. Over the past several days, Russian forces unleashed a barrage of missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. At least seven people were killed in Kyiv, including a married couple aged 71 and 73, and Nataliia Khodemchuk, the widow of the first victim of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The Ukrainian agency managing the ruins of the nuclear plant confirmed that Khodemchuk died from burns sustained during a Russian strike on her apartment building. President Zelenskyy called her death “a new tragedy caused once again by the Kremlin.” In southern Ukraine, officials reported four more civilians killed by Russian attacks: three in Myklitskyi village and Kherson city, and one in Zaporizhzhia region.
These civilian casualties have fueled calls from Kyiv for greater international support. Zelenskyy has repeatedly urged allies to provide additional air defense resources, arguing that the latest wave of Russian strikes “underscores the need for more assistance and greater resolve from our partners.” The attacks also come amid a surge in assaults on Ukraine’s railway system, a vital logistical lifeline for both civilian and military supplies. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba noted a threefold increase in attacks on rail infrastructure since July, with Russia “going after trains, especially trying to kill the drivers.”
The war’s economic front is proving equally contentious. Zelenskyy announced a sweeping overhaul of state-owned energy companies following revelations of a $100 million embezzlement scandal. Anti-graft investigators allege that top officials siphoned funds from power firms, prompting the president to order two ministers to resign and sanction a former business partner identified as the scheme’s mastermind. “Alongside a full audit of their financial activities, the management of these companies is to be renewed,” Zelenskyy said, as reported by The Guardian. He called for a new supervisory board at Energoatom, the state nuclear company, within a week, and reforms for Ukrhydroenergo, Naftogaz, and the main gas operator.
Meanwhile, the conflict’s diplomatic dimensions are shifting. Russia and Ukraine agreed to proceed with a prisoner exchange involving about 1,200 Ukrainians, following talks overseen by Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. This agreement, which revives a process set out during earlier negotiations in Istanbul, offers a rare glimmer of hope for families separated by the war.
Elsewhere in Eastern Europe, the war’s ripple effects are straining regional alliances. Polish President Karol Nawrocki signed a bill providing social assistance to roughly one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland but warned it would be “the last time” until new solutions are found. He argued that continuing support for Ukrainian refugees is “unfair to Poles,” and the legal status of these refugees is set to expire in March 2026. This move reflects growing fatigue among host countries and the political challenges posed by the ongoing refugee crisis.
In Serbia, tensions are mounting over the future of the country’s oil industry. The United States has made it clear that sanctions on the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) will not be lifted unless Belgrade terminates the firm’s majority Russian ownership. Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic stated that the US “clearly and unequivocally” demanded changes to Russian ownership, giving Serbia until February 13, 2026, to find a solution. With Serbia’s lone oil refinery facing a potential shutdown and the country on the brink of a winter energy crisis, the government planned a special cabinet meeting to address the issue.
The war has also seen an uptick in covert operations and targeted killings. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed to have foiled a Ukrainian plot to assassinate a high-ranking Kremlin official at a cemetery near Moscow. Ukraine’s Security Service dismissed the claim, telling CNN, “They are churning out fake news and statements non-stop. Our position is not to comment on their nonsense.” Regardless, assassinations and attempted assassinations have surged since 2022, affecting both sides of the conflict.
As the war grinds on, each side continues to adapt and escalate, using new tactics and technologies in a struggle that shows no sign of abating. With infrastructure under siege, civilian suffering mounting, and diplomatic solutions elusive, the stakes for Ukraine, Russia, and the broader region have never been higher.
