Ukraine is facing a pivotal moment as its allies gather in South Africa for the G20 summit, seeking to strengthen a controversial U.S.-backed peace plan aimed at ending the war with Russia. The summit, which began on November 22, 2025, comes amid mounting pressure on Kyiv to accept a proposal that many see as heavily tilted in Moscow’s favor. The stakes are high: U.S. support for Ukraine could be withdrawn if President Volodymyr Zelensky does not sign on by Thanksgiving, just days away.
The drama unfolded after President Zelensky warned his nation was enduring “one of the most difficult moments in our history,” a sentiment echoed in conversations with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the leaders of France and Germany. According to BBC, these calls underscored the gravity of the situation and the sense of urgency felt in Kyiv. Starmer, after his conversation with Zelensky, emphasized that Ukraine’s “friends and partners” remained committed to securing a “lasting peace once and for all.”
The U.S. peace plan, details of which have been widely leaked, includes several terms previously rejected by Ukraine. Among the most contentious are requirements that Ukraine cede parts of its eastern territory currently under its control, reduce the size of its army, and commit never to join NATO—a long-standing demand of the Kremlin. The plan, a 28-point document drafted by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in coordination with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, was formally presented to Zelensky by U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll on November 20, 2025, as reported by Washington Post. The message from Washington was clear: sign by November 27 or risk losing vital American support.
For Ukraine, the pressure is immense. The country depends heavily on U.S.-supplied advanced weaponry and intelligence to defend against Russia’s slow but steady advances along the front lines. As Russian forces inch forward, despite suffering heavy losses, the leverage of Western aid looms large over Kyiv’s decision-making. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance highlighted the limits of continued support, stating, “It is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand.”
The peace plan’s provisions have sparked concern across Europe. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the current moment as “very dangerous,” warning that “how it ends matters. Russia has no legal right whatsoever to any concessions from the country it invaded, ultimately the terms of any agreement are for Ukraine to decide.” European leaders are wary that the proposal, if adopted, could set a troubling precedent for international law and security on the continent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has welcomed the plan as a potential “basis” for a settlement, though he noted that detailed talks on its terms have yet to occur at the Kremlin. He signaled a willingness to “show flexibility” but also made it clear that Russia is prepared to continue fighting if its demands are not met. According to Reuters, Putin’s endorsement of the plan would represent a significant victory for Moscow, effectively forcing Ukraine to capitulate on most of his demands with almost no concessions in return.
What exactly does the plan entail? The leaked draft proposes that Ukrainian troops withdraw from parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—areas that Kyiv still controls—and formally cede control of the southern Crimea peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. In total, Russia would retain about 20% of Ukrainian territory, consolidating its gains from the conflict. In exchange, the plan offers Ukraine “reliable security guarantees,” though the specifics remain vague. The document also expects that Russia will not invade its neighbors and that NATO will halt its expansion, addressing another of Moscow’s core concerns.
Notably, the plan drops an earlier, more sweeping Russian demand that Ukraine withdraw from the entirety of four regions annexed by Russia in 2022. Still, the requirement that Ukraine abandon territory it has not lost on the battlefield is a bitter pill for Kyiv to swallow. The proposal also suggests Russia’s reintegration into the global economy, including an invitation to rejoin the G7—restoring the group to its former G8 configuration—a move that would mark a dramatic shift in Russia’s international standing.
President Trump, who has been at the center of the U.S. push for a settlement, warned that Ukraine would “lose more territory to Russia in a short amount of time” if it failed to approve the plan. He set Thanksgiving as the deadline for a decision, calling it an “appropriate” moment for Ukraine to commit. The White House, for its part, has denied allegations that Ukraine was excluded from the plan’s drafting. An unnamed U.S. official told CBS News that the proposal was drawn up “immediately” after consultations with Ukraine’s top security official, Rustem Umerov, who reportedly agreed to most of its terms.
Yet, the mood in Kyiv is one of cautious defiance. In a measured statement, Zelensky’s office declared that Ukraine “will never be an obstacle for peace” but insisted that its representatives would “defend legitimate interests of the Ukrainian people and the foundations of European security.” Zelensky himself acknowledged the difficult crossroads facing his country, admitting, “We might face a very difficult choice: either losing dignity, or risk losing a key partner.” He promised to work calmly with America and other partners, offering alternatives to the plan rather than making “loud statements.”
The broader international response reflects deep unease. While the U.S. is signaling that ongoing support is contingent on Ukraine’s acceptance of the deal, European leaders are wary of a settlement that appears to reward aggression and undermine the principle of territorial integrity. The plan’s expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbors in the future is seen by many as cold comfort, given the events of the past decade.
As the G20 summit continues in South Africa, Ukraine’s allies are working to “strengthen” the proposal, seeking ways to make it more palatable to Kyiv while still moving toward an end to the devastating conflict. Starmer put it succinctly: “Not a day has passed in this war where Ukraine hasn’t called for Russia to end its illegal invasion, roll back its tanks and lay down its guns. Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together, with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all.”
With the Thanksgiving deadline looming and the future of U.S. support hanging in the balance, Ukraine stands at a crossroads. The choices made in the coming days will not only determine the fate of the war but will also reverberate across Europe and beyond, shaping the security order for years to come.
