The United Kingdom’s counter-terrorism landscape has seen a dramatic shift over the past year, with the government’s Prevent programme recording its highest ever number of referrals. According to newly released Home Office data, 8,778 individuals were referred to Prevent in the year ending March 31, 2025—a staggering 27% increase from the previous year’s 6,922 referrals, as reported by BBC and Sky News. This surge comes in the wake of the tragic Southport attack, where Axel Rudakubana murdered three young girls at a dance class, an event that has cast a long shadow over both public sentiment and official responses to potential extremism.
Prevent, one of four pillars in the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy, is designed to identify and support individuals at risk of radicalisation before their views or actions escalate into violence. The scheme requires schools, police, the NHS, and local authorities to report people showing signs of being drawn into violent extremism. Once referred, cases are confidentially assessed to determine if further action is needed. Notably, referrals do not result in criminal records or sanctions, but can lead to support through multi-agency panels known as Channel, which aim to steer at-risk individuals away from dangerous ideologies.
What’s behind this unprecedented surge? Officials and analysts point squarely to the aftermath of the Southport tragedy. Axel Rudakubana had himself been flagged to Prevent three times by teachers, but each case was closed due to a lack of identifiable terrorist motive. According to The Mirror, a subsequent review found that Rudakubana should have been escalated to the more intensive Channel programme. In the months following the attack, Prevent referrals jumped by 34% compared to the previous year, suggesting heightened vigilance among educators, police, and the general public.
Scotland mirrored the UK-wide trend. BBC Scotland reports that its own Prevent programme saw 162 referrals in 2024/25—up 42% from 114 the previous year, and more than triple the 50 referrals recorded during the pandemic-affected 2020/21 period. Males accounted for a striking 89% of Scottish referrals, with those aged 15 to 20 making up 40% and children under 15 comprising 37%. The majority of these referrals came from police, followed by the education sector and local authorities. Within education, secondary schools were the most active, accounting for 46 referrals, while primary schools, colleges, and universities contributed smaller numbers.
Across the UK, the demographic breakdown is equally sobering. Data released by the Home Office and covered by ITV News shows that individuals aged 11 to 15 accounted for the largest proportion of referrals—over a third, or 3,192 cases. Even more startling, hundreds of children under the age of 10 were investigated under the scheme, with 345 referrals in this age group. The ethnicity data, published for the first time, revealed that 65% of referrals were white, 19% Asian, 8% black, and 8% other, while the overwhelming majority were male—a pattern consistent since data collection began.
The reasons for referral paint a complex picture of modern extremism. The largest share—56%, or 4,917 cases—were individuals with no clear ideology, though these cases were least likely to be taken further by multi-agency panels. Right-wing extremism, however, has become a growing concern. According to Sky News, referrals for extreme right-wing beliefs rose by 37% to 1,798, accounting for 21% of all cases. This was a higher proportion than those related to Islamist extremism, which made up 10% (879 cases), down from 13% the previous year. Notably, right-wing extremism accounted for 42% of cases taken further after referral, compared to just 15% for Islamist extremism, as ITV News highlighted.
The new data also introduced a category for individuals with a “fascination with extreme violence or mass casualty attacks (where no other ideology),” accounting for 5% of referrals. These cases, while smaller in number, were more likely to be adopted by Channel panels—27% compared to just 10% for those with no ideology. This nuanced approach reflects the evolving nature of radicalisation, where not all threats fit traditional ideological molds.
Prevent’s reach is broad, but certain sectors stand out. The education sector made up the largest share of referrals (36%), although this was a slight decrease from 40% the previous year. Police referrals, on the other hand, increased by 37% and accounted for 30% of the total. Local authorities saw the largest percentage jump, with a 54% increase in referrals. Interestingly, referrals from community members and friends or family declined by 25% and 7%, respectively, perhaps reflecting a shift in who feels responsible for flagging potential risks.
Mental health and neurodiversity also feature prominently in the data. A third of all referrals (2,995) involved individuals with at least one mental health or neurodiversity condition, with Autism Spectrum Disorder being the most common. This intersection of vulnerability and risk underscores the importance of careful, compassionate assessment—a point echoed by both supporters and critics of the scheme.
The government, for its part, has pledged reforms. Security Minister Dan Jarvis told ITV News, “We must direct people away from the dangerous path of radicalisation – whether it be Islamist ideology, Extreme Right-Wing or those seeking mass violence. Prevent has diverted 6,000 people away from violent ideologies, stopping terrorists, keeping our streets and country safe.” Planned changes include increased funding and a broadening of assessment criteria, in response to both the Southport attack and criticism from the 2023 Shawcross review, which concluded that Prevent was “not doing enough to counter non-violent Islamist extremism” and exhibited a “double standard” in its approach to different types of extremism.
Yet the scheme is not without controversy. Critics argue that Prevent’s handling of high-profile cases like Rudakubana’s, and its focus on particular forms of extremism, have exposed weaknesses. The Shawcross review found that a narrower set of criteria was being used to assess Islamist extremism, leading to fewer referrals and cases taken forward compared to right-wing extremism. In response, the government has signaled efforts to increase awareness among those with a duty to refer, ensuring a wider range of warning signs are recognized across all ideologies.
As the UK grapples with the aftermath of tragedy and the ever-shifting landscape of radicalisation, one thing is clear: the Prevent programme is under more scrutiny—and pressure—than ever before. With record numbers of referrals, growing public vigilance, and ongoing debate about its effectiveness and fairness, the future of Prevent will likely remain at the heart of Britain’s conversation about security, civil liberties, and the best way to protect its most vulnerable citizens.
