The United Kingdom’s much-heralded “one-in, one-out” migrant deal with France is off to a rocky and controversial start, as new figures reveal that arrivals by small boat across the Channel continue to vastly outnumber deportations, despite government assurances of progress. The scheme, agreed in July 2025 by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, is the latest in a string of attempts to curb the record numbers making the perilous crossing from northern France to Britain’s southern coast.
Under the terms of the agreement, migrants arriving illegally by small boat are to be returned to France, while the UK in turn accepts an equal number of approved asylum seekers from France via a legal route. The arrangement, according to the Home Office, is designed to send “a clear message to people-smuggling gangs that illegal entry into the UK will not be tolerated.” The government insists that the deal will deter dangerous crossings and restore order to a system long overwhelmed by unprecedented numbers.
Yet, the early numbers suggest the challenge remains daunting. Over 32,000 people have crossed the Channel in small boats so far in 2025, with more than 1,000 arriving on a single day last week, according to Home Office statistics cited by multiple outlets, including AFP and Sky News. In stark contrast, only six people have been deported back to France under the new scheme so far—two of them, an Afghan and a Somali, were returned just this Thursday morning. Others deported last week included individuals from Iran, Afghanistan, Eritrea, and India.
The first migrants to arrive in the UK under the pilot were a family of three, including a small child, who made the journey legally after applying in France. Their arrival on September 24 was hailed by officials as a “critical first step” in the exchange process. A government official, who asked to remain anonymous, confirmed, “A family of three, including a small child, are the first to have arrived under the deal.”
However, critics argue that these initial exchanges are little more than symbolic gestures. With 1,157 arrivals in the same week as the first six deportations, the numbers highlight the scale of the challenge. As The Guardian and Sky News report, the opposition Conservative Party has dismissed the “in-out” treaty as tinkering around the edges, unlikely to have the desired deterrent effect. “The numbers show the government is struggling to get a grip on the crisis,” noted one commentator.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, however, struck a more optimistic tone, describing the pilot programme—which is set to run until June 2026—as “just the beginning.” He promised that deportations would increase in the coming months, suggesting that the government is laying the groundwork for a more robust response. Ministers maintain that for each migrant returned to France, the UK will allow an asylum seeker to enter through a safe and legal route, provided they have not previously tried to enter illegally. Each transfer is subject to rigorous documentation, eligibility, and security checks, according to the Home Office.
But the legal and humanitarian complexities remain formidable. On September 24, the Home Office was refused permission to challenge a High Court ruling that granted an Eritrean man a temporary block on his deportation to France. The judge gave the man 14 days to make representations to support his claim that he was a victim of modern slavery. Such cases underscore the legal hurdles facing the government as it seeks to balance border control with its obligations under international law.
The context is fraught. Since 2018, tens of thousands have made the dangerous Channel crossing annually, and the journeys are often deadly. At least 23 people have died so far this year attempting the crossing, according to official French data cited by AFP. Prime Minister Starmer, who took office in July 2024, has vowed to “smash the gangs” behind the crossings, scrapping a costly scheme planned by the previous Conservative government to send some migrants to Rwanda.
The debate over immigration has only grown more bitter in recent months. Protests and counter-demonstrations have erupted in towns across the UK, particularly after incidents involving asylum seekers. In July, an Ethiopian asylum seeker staying at the Bell Hotel in Epping was jailed for sexually assaulting a teenage girl and a woman. The case ignited weeks of protests and counter-protests, not only in Epping but also outside other hotels used to house migrants. The Bell Hotel itself is now at the center of a legal battle between the local council, which wants it emptied of asylum seekers, and the interior ministry, which is fighting to keep it as a shelter. A High Court hearing is scheduled for October 15.
Nationally, the government faces mounting pressure to reduce its reliance on hotels for housing asylum seekers. As of the end of June 2025, over 32,000 migrants were being housed in hotels, with nearly 71,000 in other accommodations. Ministers have pledged to stop using hotels for this purpose by the next general election, due in 2029—a promise many see as ambitious given the current pace of arrivals.
For many local residents, the government’s approach has failed to address their concerns. Demonstrations outside migrant hotels, fueled by online anger and high-profile criminal cases, reflect a wider sense of frustration. In Scotland, anti-immigration protests have been taking place every weekend at different locations, with the national police chief noting a recent uptick in attendance.
Meanwhile, the government’s efforts to project a tough stance are complicated by the realities on the ground. The “one-in, one-out” deal, described by the Home Office as “critical first steps,” remains in its infancy, and its impact on overall numbers is, so far, negligible. The hope is that the scheme will eventually deter illegal crossings by demonstrating that those who attempt the journey will be swiftly returned, while those who follow legal channels will be welcomed. Whether that hope is justified remains to be seen.
For now, the UK’s migration dilemma continues to dominate headlines and fuel political debate, with the “one-in, one-out” deal representing both the government’s latest gamble and a stark reminder of the complexities inherent in managing modern migration flows.
