As Typhoon Matmo, officially designated as storm number 11, churned through the northern reaches of the East Sea in early October 2025, meteorological agencies and coastal communities across northern Vietnam braced themselves for what was forecasted to be an intense and potentially destructive weather event. With the storm intensifying and maintaining a steady course, its looming impact triggered a flurry of warnings, emergency preparations, and anxious speculation about its precise trajectory and the scale of its effects.
According to data from Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 4:00 AM on October 4, the typhoon's center was pinpointed at approximately 17.9 degrees North latitude and 117.4 degrees East longitude, about 570 kilometers east-northeast of the Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands. The storm was packing maximum sustained winds at level 11, translating to speeds between 103 and 117 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching an even fiercer level 14. At that hour, Matmo was barreling west-northwest at roughly 25 kilometers per hour—a pace that would soon bring it closer to Vietnam’s vulnerable northern coastline.
By 11:00 AM the same day, the typhoon had advanced to about 390 kilometers east-northeast of Hoang Sa, maintaining its formidable wind speeds. Forecasts from both Vietnamese and international meteorological agencies—including those in Japan and Hong Kong—indicated the storm would intensify further, possibly reaching maximum wind strengths of 145 kilometers per hour by October 5. The agencies agreed: Matmo was on track to become one of the most powerful storms to threaten northern Vietnam in recent memory.
The projected path of Typhoon Matmo, as detailed by the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting and reported by Dantri, showed the storm continuing on its west-northwest trajectory. By noon or early afternoon on October 5, it was expected to pass near the Leizhou Peninsula in southern China, with winds peaking at level 13 and gusts up to level 16. After crossing this threshold, the storm was predicted to enter the Gulf of Tonkin, setting its sights on Vietnam's northeastern coast.
With the storm’s forward momentum, meteorologists warned that by the early hours of October 6, Matmo would likely make landfall in the northeastern region of northern Vietnam, particularly in the coastal areas of Quang Ninh province. However, there was a glimmer of hope: analysis of weather data over the previous 12 hours suggested the typhoon might veer slightly northward as it approached, potentially sparing Vietnam’s coastal regions from the very worst of its wind and rain. "If the storm continues to shift further north, the intensity of wind and rain in the Red River Delta and Hanoi will decrease further," the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting explained, as cited by Dantri.
Despite this possible reprieve, authorities were taking no chances. The storm's impact on the northern East Sea was already evident, with strong winds at levels 8-10, and near the storm center, gusts reaching levels 11-13 and even 16. Waves in the region soared between four and six meters high, and in the storm’s immediate vicinity, they climbed to an intimidating eight meters. The seas were described as "very rough," a condition that posed critical dangers to any vessels caught in the storm’s path.
From the afternoon of October 5, the coastal waters—including the Bach Long Vi special zone—were expected to see winds intensify to levels 6-7, later escalating to 8-9 by evening. The northern Gulf of Tonkin, including islands such as Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai, and Hon Dau, would be battered by winds at levels 8-9, with gusts up to level 14 and waves between two and five meters high. This combination of wind and water was more than enough to threaten even large cargo ships, let alone smaller fishing vessels or tourist boats.
On land, the dangers were equally stark. From the night of October 5, winds along the coast from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh were forecasted to rise steadily, reaching levels 6-8, and in areas near the storm’s center, up to levels 9-10. Such winds, meteorologists warned, could topple trees, damage homes, and bring down power lines, resulting in "very heavy damage." Inland, the northeastern provinces could still experience winds at level 6 or even 7, with gusts up to level 9.
Rainfall was another major concern. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicted that from the night of October 5 through to the end of October 7, northern Vietnam—including Thanh Hoa and Nghe An provinces—would see heavy to very heavy rain, with totals commonly between 100 and 200 millimeters and localized areas exceeding 300 millimeters. Mountainous and midland regions could face even more intense downpours, with some spots forecasted to receive over 400 millimeters. The risk of flash flooding and landslides loomed large, particularly in areas where rainfall could surpass 200 millimeters in just three hours. The Center also issued a warning for a prolonged flood event on rivers in the North and in Thanh Hoa–Nghe An, lasting from October 6 to 9.
Hanoi was not spared from the typhoon’s reach. The capital was expected to receive between 100 and 200 millimeters of rain, with the heaviest precipitation likely to fall in the early hours of October 6 and continuing into the following morning. In response, the Hanoi Drainage Company mobilized all available personnel and equipment, maintaining a 24/7 state of readiness to deal with potential flooding, as reported by Dantri.
Other coastal provinces, especially Quang Ninh and Hai Phong, were warned to prepare for storm surges, with tidal waters expected to rise by 0.4 to 0.6 meters from the afternoon and evening of October 5. Flooding was anticipated in low-lying coastal and estuary areas, with the risk compounded by high waves and persistent rain.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting emphasized the extreme danger posed by the storm to all maritime and coastal activities. The warning was unequivocal: "Weather at sea and on coastal land during the storm is extremely dangerous, unsafe for any vessels or structures operating in the danger zone, including tourist boats, passenger ships, cargo vessels, aquaculture farms, dykes, embankments, and coastal roads." The Center urged all vessels to seek safe harbor and for local authorities to remain vigilant against the threat of flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage.
As Typhoon Matmo approached, communities across northern Vietnam prepared for the worst, hoping for the best. The next few days would test the region’s resilience and the effectiveness of its disaster preparedness measures, as one of the most powerful storms of the season bore down on its shores.