As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season heads into its busiest stretch, forecasters are raising alarms about a pair of tropical systems swirling in the Atlantic, each with the potential to bring hazardous weather to the Southeast U.S. coast. On September 25 and 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was closely tracking three tropical systems, but all eyes were on two in particular: strengthening Hurricane Humberto and a sprawling tropical wave near the Dominican Republic, which is expected to soon become Tropical Storm Imelda.
The unfolding scenario has meteorologists and coastal residents on edge, not least because the interactions between these two storms could set up a rare and unpredictable situation. Michael Brennan, Director of the NHC, warned in an update that "there's an increasing risk of impacts from this system across portions of the Bahamas and across portions of the southeast United States coastline as we go through the weekend and into early next week." Those impacts could include heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surge, especially along the Southeast coast.
As of 5 p.m. ET on September 25, Humberto was located about 470 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and moving northwest at 6 mph, according to the Miami Herald. The storm was rapidly organizing and forecast to reach hurricane status within 24 hours, with the potential to become a major Category 3 hurricane—meaning winds could top 115 mph—over the weekend. The NHC projected Humberto to move generally northward, passing just west of Bermuda on September 30, though the forecast cone was anything but certain.
Meanwhile, the tropical wave, designated Invest 94-L, was producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as it drenched Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The NHC gave it an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression within 48 hours and a 90% chance over the next week. By the end of the week, the system is expected to slow and turn northwest toward the Bahamas, where it could consolidate into Tropical Storm Imelda.
Models show that the system could track just offshore along Florida’s coast before potentially threatening the Carolinas. However, as the NHC noted, "there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, [but] the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are increasing." Meteorologist Roger Martin from the National Weather Service in Morehead City, North Carolina, emphasized that the extent of those impacts remains "heavily dependent" on the storm’s track and intensity.
Forecast models as of September 26 were split between a north-northwest path toward the Grand Strand area of South Carolina or a more northerly track into North Carolina. If Imelda interacts with Humberto—a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect—the system could be tugged east, potentially sparing the Carolinas from a direct hit. Morgan Simms, another meteorologist in Morehead City, described the situation as highly complex: "Interactions like this in the Atlantic basin have little precedent – we don't have an appreciable historical record to draw reference to."
For now, the highest threat level for impacts is along the Grand Strand of South Carolina and the coastal regions of North Carolina, with possible effects extending into the Lowcountry and coastal Georgia. Jeremy Nelson, Chief Meteorologist at WJCL 22, cautioned that if Imelda remains just offshore, impacts could include rough surf, dangerous rip currents, higher-than-normal tides, and breezy conditions—especially on Monday, September 29. If the storm veers farther out to sea, rain in Southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry could be minimal, which is notable given Savannah's meager rainfall total of just 0.03 inches so far in September.
Adding to the mix, Hurricane Gabrielle was racing across the Atlantic at 32 mph, about 535 miles west of the Azores, and expected to bring hurricane conditions to the Azores by the morning of September 26 before transitioning near Portugal over the weekend. While Gabrielle is not expected to impact the U.S., it’s a reminder of how active the basin has become.
Residents along the Southeast coast are already noticing the effects. The weather service in Melbourne, Florida, issued warnings about life-threatening rip currents as long-period swells from distant storms—including Gabrielle and the approaching Humberto—reach the shoreline. Small vessels are advised to exercise caution, and beach and boating conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next week as the tropical wave moves toward the Bahamas.
Despite the looming threat, the 2025 hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far. With eight named storms through September 24, the season is tied with 2024 for the fewest Atlantic named storms at this point since 2014, according to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. But as history has shown, it only takes one major storm to cause catastrophic damage.
Forecast uncertainty is a recurring theme in this unfolding story. Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, explained that several factors are making the forecast for these two storms particularly tricky: the potential for the Fujiwhara effect, their interaction with a frontal boundary moving into the Southeast, and the effects of the tropical wave passing over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Even the new Google DeepMind ensemble, praised for its recent accuracy, is split on whether the system will recurve out to sea or make landfall along the Southeast coast.
To keep up with the rapidly evolving situation, at least six hurricane hunter flights were scheduled for September 25 and 26, with more to follow if the system near the Bahamas develops further. These flights will provide crucial data to help forecasters refine their predictions.
With September and October historically the most active months for hurricanes in the Carolinas, meteorologists are urging residents to review their emergency plans, know evacuation routes, and stay tuned to official forecasts. Robert Haley, a meteorologist in Central Florida, summed up the advice for those along the coast: "We recommend residents and visitors take this time to ensure their emergency plan is ready."
As the weekend approaches, the fate of Humberto and the soon-to-be Imelda hangs in the balance, with the potential for a rare dance between two powerful storms. For now, uncertainty reigns, but one thing is clear: the Southeast U.S. coast should be on high alert.
