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19 October 2025

Turkish Cypriots Face Pivotal Vote On Island’s Future

Voters in northern Cyprus weigh deeper ties with Turkey against renewed peace talks with Greek Cypriots as the presidential election tests decades-old divisions.

On Sunday, October 19, 2025, Turkish Cypriots residing in the northern part of the divided island of Cyprus headed to the polls for a presidential election that many observers have called a pivotal moment in the region’s decades-long conflict. The outcome of this vote is widely seen as a referendum on the future direction of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC): Should it move toward deeper integration with Turkey, or seek renewed engagement with the European Union through talks with Greek Cypriots?

According to the Associated Press, the election drew participation from approximately 218,000 registered voters, with polling stations open from 5:00 to 15:00 GMT across the TRNC. By the close of voting, seven candidates had vied for the leadership, but the race was expected to hinge on two men with starkly different visions: the incumbent Ersin Tatar and his main challenger, Tufan Erhurman.

Ersin Tatar, 65, is well-known for his hardline stance favoring a permanent division of Cyprus. He has consistently argued for international recognition of the TRNC as an independent state, closely aligned with Turkey’s political, economic, and social policies. Tatar’s approach mirrors that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who, at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, declared, “There are two separate states on Cyprus,” and called on the global community to recognize the Turkish Cypriot entity. Tatar, running as an independent, has long championed this vision, emphasizing what he sees as the Turkish Cypriot people’s right to sovereignty and self-determination.

“The Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus and its backers continue to impose every kind of injustice on the Turkish Cypriot people,” Tatar told journalists after casting his vote, as reported by Anadolu Agency. He went on to say, “We are fighting against a mindset that is trying to impose a forced solution and deprive us of our sovereign rights here.” For Tatar, the election represents the culmination of a campaign to assert the TRNC’s presence on the international stage, a campaign bolstered by Erdoğan’s vocal support. “What matters most is the Turkish Cypriot people's struggle for existence on these lands, their prosperity in the coming period and their rightful, legal, and sovereign future as one of the two constituent peoples of Cyprus,” Tatar added.

On the other side of the political spectrum stands Tufan Erhurman, 55, leader of the main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP). Erhurman, running as his party’s official candidate, advocates a return to negotiations with Greek Cypriots aimed at forging a two-zone federation. He is a proponent of renewed United Nations-sponsored talks, a process that has been stalled since 2017. Erhurman has openly criticized Tatar’s reluctance to engage in peace talks during his five-year tenure, calling it a costly loss of time that has left Turkish Cypriots further isolated from the international community and the benefits of European Union engagement.

Reuters reported that Erhurman’s platform resonates with those Turkish Cypriots who hold EU-recognized Cyprus passports, live in the north, and desire closer ties with Europe. The election, therefore, is not just about leadership but about the very identity and direction of the Turkish Cypriot community. Erhurman’s supporters argue that only through dialogue and compromise can the deadlock be broken and the Turkish Cypriots’ international isolation be eased.

The historical backdrop to this election is complex and deeply emotional. Cyprus was divided in 1974 when Turkey invaded the island in response to a Greek junta-backed coup that sought union with Greece. The Turkish Cypriots declared independence in 1983, forming the TRNC, but to this day, only Turkey recognizes it as a sovereign state. Turkey maintains more than 35,000 troops in the island’s northern third. Meanwhile, Cyprus as a whole joined the European Union in 2004, but only the internationally recognized government in the Greek Cypriot south enjoys full EU membership benefits.

Many Greek Cypriots view the two-state solution championed by Tatar and Erdoğan as a non-starter, arguing that it contradicts both United Nations and European Union frameworks for a federated Cyprus. They fear that formal partition would cement Turkish control over the entire island and undermine prospects for a peaceful, shared future. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has repeatedly stated that there is “no chance” of peace talks premised on two states, according to the Associated Press.

The mechanics of the TRNC election, as outlined by Anadolu Agency, dictated that a candidate needed to secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no one achieved this absolute majority, the top two candidates would advance to a runoff scheduled for October 26, 2025. The winner of that second round would then assume the presidency. In addition to Tatar and Erhurman, five other candidates were on the ballot: Mehmet Hasgüler, Arif Salih Kırdağ, Ahmet Boran, Ibrahim Yazıcı (all independents), and Osman Zorba, representing the Cyprus Socialist Party. However, the consensus among analysts and voters alike was that the real contest was between Tatar and Erhurman, whose visions for the future could not be more different.

As polling stations closed and anticipation mounted, the sense of history was palpable. The Reuters report described the scene in Nicosia, the divided capital, where campaign posters and political banners underscored the high stakes. For many Turkish Cypriots, the vote was not just about domestic leadership but about their place in the world—whether to double down on their unique relationship with Turkey or seek a path back to the negotiating table with Greek Cypriots and the broader international community.

The election also came at a time of heightened debate over the island’s future, with both Ankara and the TRNC’s current leadership continuing to stress the need for international recognition and the equal political rights of Turkish Cypriots. The Associated Press noted that, despite the passage of time and numerous rounds of failed talks, the central issues—sovereignty, security, and identity—remain unresolved and deeply contested.

As the results await final tally and possible runoff, the eyes of Cyprus, Turkey, Greece, and the international community are fixed on the TRNC. The outcome will reverberate far beyond the island’s shores, shaping not only the future of peace talks but also the broader geopolitics of the eastern Mediterranean. For now, Turkish Cypriots have spoken at the ballot box, and their choice will set the course for the years ahead.

In the end, the 2025 TRNC presidential election stands as a testament to the enduring complexity of the Cyprus issue—a story of division, hope, and the persistent search for a lasting solution.