For generations, Americans have relied on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other U.S. government agencies to provide a clear, authoritative snapshot of the nation’s economic health. Their statistics have shaped policy decisions, guided investors, and helped everyday citizens make sense of the economy’s twists and turns. But recent events have thrown that trust into disarray, leaving many to wonder: If official government data can’t be trusted, how can anyone know what’s really going on with the economy—or even with something as crucial as mortgage rates?
At the heart of the turmoil is the BLS, long considered the gold standard for labor market data. According to Fortune, the agency’s reputation suffered a major blow at the beginning of August 2025, when its top official, Erika McEntarfer, was abruptly dismissed. The firing came on the heels of a bombshell jobs report that, after substantial downward revisions, revealed the pace of job creation was weaker than it’s been in decades—excluding the pandemic years. What’s more, President Donald Trump accused McEntarfer of “faking” the numbers for “political purposes,” a charge that only heightened the political storm swirling around the agency.
“Clearly that’s not good for the President, who wants the economy to convey resilience and strength under his leadership,” wrote The Truth About Mortgage. The July jobs report, instead, “showed that the economy is beginning to crack under the new administration, at a time when they also push global tariffs and risk even more harm.”
McEntarfer’s replacement, E.J Antoni, has made no secret of his alignment with the Trump administration. He’s even suggested on X (formerly Twitter) that the Federal Reserve should be fired and the monthly jobs report paused. This has led to a new wave of uncertainty: Will jobs data remain reliable, or even available, in the months ahead? And if not, what does that mean for the broader economy—and for the millions of Americans whose fortunes are tied to things like mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates themselves have become a flashpoint in this debate. As of mid-August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered around 6.50%, a figure shaped in large part by the weak jobs report and its subsequent revisions. “Arguably, they got to where they are today…due to a very weak jobs print, helped on by major downward revisions,” noted The Truth About Mortgage. Without that negative data, rates might still be closer to 7%.
The relationship between economic data and mortgage rates is complex. Lower mortgage rates typically follow signs of economic weakness—bad jobs numbers, for example, can prompt investors to seek safer assets like government bonds, which in turn helps push down borrowing costs. But if official data becomes unreliable or is withheld altogether, it becomes much harder for markets to interpret what’s really happening. “If the jobs report is delayed, held back, or painted in a falsely-positive light, it won’t do mortgage rates any favors,” the article explained. “A strong jobs report would send the opposite message, that the economy isn’t doing as bad as those last reports indicated. Or worse, is hot again, at which point any interest rate cuts would seem completely unwarranted.”
Adding another layer of complexity, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate at its upcoming September 17 meeting, with odds at about 83% according to CME data. But as The Truth About Mortgage points out, “the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates (only its fed funds rate),” and rate cut expectations are usually “telegraphed well ahead of time and never come as a big surprise.” In other words, unless something truly unexpected happens, mortgage rates may not move much—even if the Fed acts as anticipated. The real driver, increasingly, is the credibility and content of the economic data itself.
This all illustrates a deeper conflict within the Trump administration’s economic strategy. On one hand, there’s a clear desire to lower mortgage rates to improve housing affordability for everyday Americans—a goal also championed by Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte. On the other, the administration wants to project an image of economic strength and resilience. But as The Truth About Mortgage bluntly put it: “It doesn’t work that way. You can’t have both. Otherwise it risks another serious bout of inflation, something we’ve actively fought over the past few years post-ZIRP and QE. Bringing back low mortgage rates for a short-term win risks reigniting inflation again and making our current problems that much bigger.”
With the reliability of official statistics in question, economists are urging the public to look beyond government numbers for signs of economic distress. According to Fortune, there are plenty of telltale signs that can be observed in everyday life:
- More visibly unemployed people, such as longer lines at job centers or the disappearance of “help wanted” signs.
- Wage stagnation, with fewer raises and cutbacks on hiring bonuses and perks.
- A surge in part-time or gig work as full-time jobs dry up.
- Reduced consumer spending, visible in emptier restaurants, shops, and malls, and more people using coupons or delaying discretionary purchases.
- Rising defaults and foreclosures, with more “for sale” and “foreclosure” signs popping up in neighborhoods.
- Increased demand at food banks and local charities, sometimes well before the pain shows up in official data.
- Business activity indicators, like layoff announcements, steep retail discounts, and the closure of small businesses.
- Alternative data sources, such as private payroll reports from ADP, or broader well-being indexes like the Human Development Index (HDI) and Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which states like Maryland and Vermont use to supplement traditional economic measures.
- Media and social media chatter, as stories of job losses, bankruptcies, and financial hardship begin to dominate the headlines.
In the absence of trustworthy government statistics, these alternative indicators can offer a more nuanced, ground-level view of the economy’s trajectory. As Fortune advises, “Pay attention to local businesses, listen to stories from regular people, and keep track of movement in the private sector. The telltale signs are rarely hidden; they are, for better or worse, all around us.”
As the U.S. navigates this period of economic uncertainty, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Mortgage rates, inflation, and the very credibility of the institutions that have long anchored the financial system are all in play. For now, Americans are left to read between the lines—watching not just the numbers, but the stories and signals that surround them every day.
