The landscape of American taxation is undergoing a sweeping transformation following the July 4, 2025, signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a landmark piece of legislation championed by President Donald Trump. As reports from The Tax Foundation and analyses from major outlets like USA TODAY and The Center Square pour in, the numbers reveal both the winners and losers in what’s being called the most significant overhaul of federal tax policy since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
For Floridians, the news is particularly striking. According to The Tax Foundation, the average tax cut for residents in the Sunshine State is projected at nearly $5,000 in 2026. This figure, which stands at $4,998, is set to decrease gradually over the following years—dropping to $4,271 in 2027, $4,032 in 2028, and $3,405 by 2029. Only Wyoming, Washington, and Massachusetts are expected to see larger average tax cuts in 2026, with Wyoming leading at $5,374 per filer. The national average tax cut for 2026 is pegged at $3,752.
The impact is far from uniform, however. Collier County, Florida, is projected to receive the state’s largest county-level tax cut at $14,315, while Gadsden County will see the smallest at $1,714. This disparity is echoed nationwide. As USA TODAY reports, mountain resort towns like Teton County, Wyoming—considered the nation’s wealthiest—will experience an average tax cut of $37,373 per taxpayer in 2026, the highest of any U.S. county. Pitkin County, Colorado, and Summit County, Utah, follow with average reductions of $21,363 and $14,537, respectively. Conversely, rural counties such as Loup County, Nebraska, will see much smaller average tax cuts, just $824 per filer.
Mississippi sits at the other end of the spectrum, with residents there expected to receive the smallest average tax cut in 2026: $2,400, according to The Tax Foundation. This figure will also decline over time, reaching $1,835 by 2029. Within Mississippi, Madison County will see the largest county-level cut at $4,583, while Jefferson County gets the smallest at $1,212. Still, the law is forecast to create more than 4,800 jobs in the state over the long term, while Florida is projected to add more than 68,000 jobs.
So what’s inside this “One Big Beautiful Bill”? The law makes permanent the individual tax changes first introduced in 2017, including deductions for tipped and overtime income, an expanded child tax credit, and increased standard deductions. Businesses benefit as well, with permanent 100% bonus depreciation and domestic research and development expensing. There’s also a $6,000 bonus deduction for seniors, expanded charitable contribution deductions, and an auto loan interest deduction for certain new vehicles. Families will see increased deductions and credits, and, notably, there will be no tax on tips and overtime income.
But the effects are more complex than a simple across-the-board tax cut. The bill reduces some taxes, raises others, and changes spending amounts. The Tax Foundation estimates the bill will help avoid a tax increase for about 62% of tax filers in 2026. Yet, as USA TODAY points out, the benefits are not distributed evenly. High-income counties and individuals stand to gain the most in absolute dollar terms, while rural and low-income areas see smaller gains—or even losses in the broader sense.
On August 18, 2025, Representative Blake Moore, R-Utah, took to the stage at the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics to defend the law against criticism that it disproportionately benefits billionaires. “There’s a lot out there, that … this is just tax breaks for the billionaires on the backs of the working class. And it’s fundamentally false,” Moore said at a forum hosted by the Sutherland Institute. He emphasized that the child tax credit and standard deduction benefits are capped at certain income levels, meaning billionaires can’t fully utilize them. “The vast majority of the provisions of this tax bill go to benefit middle- and low-income Americans, from the child tax credit to the standard deduction,” Moore argued.
However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paints a more nuanced picture. In an August 11 letter, CBO Director Phillip Swagel wrote, “U.S. households, on average, will see an increase in the resources available to them over the 2026-2034 period.” But, he added, “The changes in resources will not be evenly distributed among households. The agency estimates that, in general, resources will decrease for households toward the bottom of the income distribution, whereas resources will increase for households in the middle and toward the top of the income distribution.”
The CBO projects that households in the lowest income decile—those making about $24,000 or less—will see their resources decrease by about $1,200 per year (3.1% of their income), mainly due to cuts in Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). After these reductions, these households will still receive about $6,000 in transfers, net of federal taxes paid, each year. Middle-income households, making up to $85,660 and $107,911, are expected to see increases of $800 and $1,200 annually, respectively. High-income households, those earning more than $692,582, will see their resources increase by about $13,600 annually, primarily due to tax cuts, but will still pay about $190,000 a year in federal taxes net of transfers.
The Joint Committee on Taxation provides further granularity: taxpayers earning less than $15,000 will face a 9.3% increase in federal taxes by 2027, rising to 56.1% by 2033. Those earning $15,000 to $30,000 will enjoy a 21.5% tax cut in 2027, but by 2033, they’ll see a 4.6% increase. Other brackets, particularly those making $50,000 to $60,000, will see the largest cumulative percentage cut—8.9% by 2033. While high-income earners receive the largest cuts in dollar terms, their percentage reductions are smaller: 7.9% for those earning $500,000 to $1 million, and 6% for those above $1 million.
Moore and other Republican leaders remain optimistic about the broader economic impact. Moore predicted that the U.S. economy will grow at 2.6% annually—higher than the CBO’s 1.8% estimate—which, he argues, could offset the bill’s projected $4.1 trillion addition to the national debt over the next decade. Yet, according to William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, “Economic forecasters do not see such a sustained economic boom on the horizon but instead expect an economic slowdown this year, due in part to the administration’s tariffs, and then a return to something like baseline growth thereafter.”
Ultimately, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act delivers significant tax relief for many Americans, especially in high-income regions and among the middle class, while also reshaping federal spending and social program eligibility. The debate over its fairness and long-term impact is likely to continue, as both critics and supporters dig in for the next round in America’s perennial tax policy tug-of-war.
